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[Spookle]

I had to. I was getting jittery at the thought of no chat support for tonights match

Can anyone help me with the betsafe offer if they've already done it?

Its deposit £30 get £30 free bonus.

So reading the oddsmonkey tutorial it says to calculate in normal mode odds of 1.5 or greater - could use the full £60 or break it down smaller. £30 of it was free though so the calculator shows a loss if I use normal mode.

I think i'm confused because £30 of it is free SR money.

So should I do £30 qualifier then £30 stake returned?

sorry odds 1.8 or greater

Yes do two bets - one as your qualifier and the free one as SNR.

NB Betsafe require 6 x wagering at 1.8 (which I have just discovered after placing a 1.2...) before you can withdraw, so maybe go with slightly longer odds that you normally would to increase the chance of your profit being at the exchange rather than with them.

The free one is stake returned though which I think is where i'm confused (doesn't take much) so wanted to double check.

No the free one isn't stake returned!

I think you're looking at the overall money - so deposit £30 and you effectively get your £30 back, but you have to put on a bet with the £30 deposit first before you get the £30 bonus. The bonus itself you then have to use on a second bet, which you don't get your stake back on.

Its not a free bet - its a £30 bonus just for depositing £30 myself. So I actually have £60 in there right now.

I am in an interesting potential arb situation. As always, writing here to figure things out. Note: the amounts of money are tiny, it's the principle that is intriguing me.

1. This morning, around 09:30, I placed a mug bet with Coral - horse race at 15:50, field favourite, odds of 3.75. So this bet was placed well in advance of the race (could be relevant).

1. Oddsmatcher flagged this race as a normal event i.e. no red flag. The Betfair lay odds at the time were 3.75, and I predicted the usual small loss with any qualifying bet.

1. I lost my mobile signal before I could lay the bet. No worries, have loads of time to do it and will probably catch favourable odds again.

1. When I got a signal back, the Betfair lay odds had dropped to 3.7. Still not in (tiny) profit making territory but less of a loss.

1. I pause to think: Hang on, this race is hours away and the odds always change really rapidly towards the start. I check the odds history on Betfair and they show a steady decrease with time. Remember: this is the favourite in the field, so surely going to attract more bets as the race approaches?

1. I've been watching all day and lay odds are currently 3.45 and still dropping small amounts. I am now in (tiny) profit territory, even more so if I underlay.

1. How long do I wait to lay this bet?

1. The premise of underlaying an arb opportunity is very intriguing.

£5 @ 3.75 back bet with current lay odds of 3.45

Option A: standard lay
Lay £5.51, profit 25p bookie or 23p exchange.

Option B: underlay
Lay £5.26, profit 86p bookie or 0p exchange.

Option C: overlay
Lay £5.61, profit 0p bookie or 33p exchange.

So the choice is to either guarantee a profit with a standard lay or take a punt on making a bigger profit by underlaying (the highest profit I can make) or overlaying (slightly bigger than the equal split of a standard lay). Given that I wasn't expecting to make a profit at all on this mug bet, should I underlay (the horse is the current favourite, so more likely to be a bookmaker win than an exchange win)?

Any thoughts?

As far as I can see, it's a free £30 to do what you want with.

The wagering requirement is pretty large though - you have to turn over £360 in 30 days before you an withdraw. Agree with titchy - go long on your odds.

I tried to livechat betfred to see if they'd credit my free bets as goodwill.
They confirmed that t&c have changed wouldn't do anything. I've just withdrawn my cash since apparently they aren't great for reloads anyway.

It IS a free bet. You have £60 in your account. £30 was your own money. £30 was given to you. You have to wager it all (bloody loads!). The first £30 is your qualifier as it's YOUR money. he second is your free SNR bet.

Maids - ooh interesting dilemma. I'd go for the guaranteed £ myself. But then I've just taken advantage of a very long shot arb which was only going to net me £3, tied up virtually all my exchange money - and the fucker has just gone and won! And yesterday I had all my £ tied up on another horse - which withdrew from the race 5 minutes before the start.

ok I found some advice on the existing account Deposit £x and a bonus of £x. - it says
A) Place the bets as normal bets losing the qualifying loss on each bet. (or do as one big bet)
B) Use the underlaying technique so that if your bet loses you lose a little bit more on your qualifying bet but have finished the offer. If it win, you wont have lost any money and have the full bonus amount to do the next bet.

I've gone for option B so will see - I don't fully understand it but I think i'm set to make approx £22 in profit - hopefully at exchange so I don't have to keep wagering.

The second is your free SNR bet
But it's not a "stake not returned" free bet, where the stake is a notional value that isn't ever put into the pot of cash to be won. This is a real stake, given to imnottoofussed as a cash value, and will be returned with any winnings.

I'd go for the guaranteed £ myself
I'm still hanging to see if the odds drop any lower.....

I have a quick Q about unmatched bets.

Mug bet today on a horse. Bookie odds 8 and exchange odds 6.8 (is it bad to select red flag events?). Would be a £1.26 profit overall.

BUT it's unmatched at the exchange. Figured that was OK with seven hours to go. Three hours later it's still unmatched and the lay odds are now 8.

Does that mean I'll never get matched now? Do the odds have to drop back to 6.8 before I'll get matched?

imnottoofussed
How much money do you have at the exchange?

If you place £60 "normal" bet on something at odds of 3:
You could lay £61.02
Liability will be £122.04
Bookmaker bet wins £-2.04
Exchange lay wins £-2.03

This looks like a loss, because the return in either pot is lower than £60. However, the actual return, given you only put in £30 of your own cash, is more like +£28.

The problem with this bet is the lower the odds, the more of a % profit from the free £30 you'll get, but the higher the chances that profit will be in the bookie account.

The Oddsmonkey guide reckons you get back £20-£24 from the original £30. That includes all the little losses you'll accrue if you have to mug bet your winnings out of the bookmakers to the exchange.

Does that mean I'll never get matched now? Do the odds have to drop back to 6.8 before I'll get matched?
Someone has to make a back bet such that the pot of cash at lay odds of 6.8 grows enough to match your stake request.

On Betfair, you can check how the odds have changed and what's available in each pot at specific lay odds.

What time is the race?

HeyRoly
Link to a calculator that allows you to try and correct unmatched lay bets

Thanks Maid. I figured it was about cash in the pot but wondered whether it was more complicated than that.

Odds are 3.15 now. Currently a 75p profit either way on a standard lay or £2.44 bookie/0p at exchange on an underlay.....

2.98.....

It's 19.20 so plenty of time still. If I leave it and the horse loses, I'll lose £5.80. If it wins I'll be quids in, so I could leave it...

Ah, horse odds can get dramatically shorter closer to the race. Keep your Betfair page open and keep an eye on it.

Thanks everyone who was trying to help me i'm beyond help I think

I've placed £60 bet at odds of 2.04, underlay £55.71 odds 2.12 - so will make a bigger loss than a normal qualifier but actual return will include £30 not my cash - think I worked it out around £22? Not sure as i've closed my spreadsheet and i'm at work

I've placed £60 bet at odds of 2.04, underlay £55.71 odds 2.12 - so will make a bigger loss than a normal qualifier but actual return will include £30 not my cash - think I worked it out around £22?
I don't know why you underlayed?

If you made a standard lay, you would have guaranteed £26.17 either way. Now you've created a win of either £30 bookie or £22.93 exchange.

If I'd had to pick between under- or overlay, I'd have overlayed to weight an exchange win more than a bookie win.