These were the areas of risks to forecasts I outlined at the Cabinet Meeting - obviously with only 3 minutes you can't spout numbers but these were the back up stats I had drawn off (thanks to those who posted the ones I used from here!) in the vain hope they would ask questions.
here
ï‚§ The Council admits that there are many variables in predicting and providing school places which make it difficult, and yet all their focus on risk is on the possibility of unfilled capacity.
ï‚§ With just 3% spare places in the borough in 2014 surely there should be an equal focus on the risk that the Council will fail to provide enough places, again
ï‚§ Here are just a few of those risks, both probable and will have a high impact
ï‚§ The Council proposes no new places in it's maintained schools, and a reduction in academies until 2016 or possibly later and yet the primary school cohort, all in our schools now, will have increased by 23%.
ï‚§ It is assumed that there will be a halving of out of borough pupils. We were assured by The Council's officials that the the 2012 figures were confirmation enough of those forecasts going forward to 2016. Not surprising since they were made a few months ago and undermined by ignoring the risks that
ï‚§ the Kingston School is still not certain of finance, it isn't in the Government priority building list issued today, and may be built too far south to meet demand near the boundary
ï‚§ and there is no immunity from the 17% increase in pupil numbers that will hit Hounslow in 2015 far exceeding their capacity.
ï‚§ It is also assumed that there will be 95 places in Free Schools from 2013. The only school that would deliver that won't know until August if it has funding and Clifden Road will be the most easily and quickly delivered site
ï‚§ The parents who the Council has always relied on to opt for private education or move from the Borough when faced with no place at a local school are no longer as able to oblige. Economic forecasts, especially for the Financial sector which employs many of them, continue to be bleak.
ï‚§ In 2013, the removal of links will mean many parents will have wider options, catchment areas are bound to shrink and the pressure on spare capacity increase, especially in Twickenham.
ï‚§ The impact of the risks on the parents in my road is that as early as 2013 Twickenham children will have only a long journey to Richmond Park Academy as an option. And Richmond Park Academy are planning to be fully subscribed by 2014. Why wouldn't they be? There is no reason why local demand for an improved school will not be as great as it is for Orleans
ï‚§ The new School at Egerton Road, is still largely spin, there may have been meetings but the feasibility and timing, of the site, funding, design and building are all uncertain.