I did find it a bit mindbending, having a background in business planning in the public sector that they could sit there and say all this and then back it up basically by saying "Trust me I'm a Professional with years of experience" and "forecasting is an art not a science". Well I'm a professional (qualifications filling up a business card) and I had 25 years experience, which did help me to forecast accurately because I knew the markets so well, but that didn't mean that I didn't have to back up every figure with evidence and go to Board Meetings, Government Officials and Select Committees with reams of modelling data and a full risk assessment with weighting according to impact and probability, and upside and downside forecasts with plans on what action would be taken if those risks were realised. And what a dream it would have been to be able to have a supply led plan, that always aimed to have fully used capacity, regardless of the degree to which, indeed whether, it risked unfulfilled demand.
I did some asking about and there are Councils who do plan to demand, that have sophisticated modelling based not just on experience but all sorts of demographic and economic data and qualitative research (asking parents!!!), processes for refining their models iteratively and the weighting they should give to risks, and it is done at individual community level, bottom up as well as top down. It's not rocket science but it does work better than always playing catch up when risks do materialise...
They are now complaining one of the reasons they fail to forecast primary demand is that fewer parents are going private, but Surrey are already planning for the trend that they forecast in primary schools post 2008 crash coming through to secondary levels on the basis that parents will initially make the sacrifice at primary level but sustained recession will see it happening in secondary schools too.
They complain about parents moving to the borough for schools but do they have any understanding of what is going on? Have they asked Estate agents who is moving in and why and where? Seems to me from other pages on here that Nappy Valley is coming west, and they like places that feel like Nappy Valley. So there are going to be huge problems between the catchments of schools there.
And do they understand teh relationship between quality and demand, seems like when standards improve they are calways wrong footed by the speed at which catchments shrink.
These forecasts are high risk because they are making a lot of assumptions just on, being nice about it and not implying an agenda, gut feel. Their forecasts are based on the assumption removal of links will mean, based on 2011 admissions, that only 1 Hounslow child will get into Orleans on distance and the other 29 who would have got in will disappear off Richmond's radar? really? Has anyone asked them if they feel they belong to Hounslow and not Twickenham? and so won't want their children at a Twickenham School?