Very complicated isn't it?
My eldest was clearly autistic from the day he was born, we just didn't know that's what it was. He never looked at us, you know that 'bonding time' people talk about when they gaze into your eyes when at the breast? None of that. He'd stiffen when I cuddled him. I used to cry that he didn't love me, he knew I was a bad mother etc etc.
My youngest - developed normally. Sociable, good eye contact, in fact it was because he was so different that we realised something was amiss with ds1.
And then, suddenly, out of the blue, at MMR time, he regressed. No more eye contact. No more interest.
Anyone would have said that child has CERTAINLY been damaged by the MMR. The change is too sudden and too extreme for it to be anything else.
Except - he never had the mmr. (ironically we were worried about the link to autism! )
So sudden regressions can happen at the age when they are normally having the MMR.
So in all honesty, I have no clue whether it is the reason or not. Whether it is the trigger in some cases of regression but others happen without it, or what. I do know that had ds2 had the mmr I would have been jumping up and down, convinced it was the reason.
However, I am one person, with only 2 experiences of autism. I wouldn't assume that I know it all and know all the reasons or have all the answers. I only have my opinion on my situation.