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Holy moly - Congress has voted against US bail out

157 replies

dinny · 29/09/2008 19:37

Goodness me

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Piffle · 29/09/2008 20:30

iirc democrats outnumber repubs in house of reps
The govt is likely (one prays) to change in 2 mths
I would not take a bush thought solution either
He probably has left them screwed
But then know sweet FA about it but that was my first thought!

justaboutsensible · 29/09/2008 20:30

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CatIsSleepy · 29/09/2008 20:31

so this is a normal cycle? a bunch of greedy bankers encouraging people to run up bad debts?

dinny · 29/09/2008 20:31

am amazed Obama/McCain WANT to be president in this climate - nightmare

Dow Jones has had the biggest fall EVER today, BBC News just said

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justaboutsensible · 29/09/2008 20:32

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Piffle · 29/09/2008 20:32

oh shit
I'm with michael Moore without knowing!!!

dinny · 29/09/2008 20:32

no, think it is not a normal cycle, CIS, though people have believed the hype

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georgimama · 29/09/2008 20:33

Sadly not.

dinny · 29/09/2008 20:33

who said "normal cycle" anyway?

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CatIsSleepy · 29/09/2008 20:34

so if it's not normal how does anyone know it will stabilise of its own accord?

Quattrocento · 29/09/2008 20:37

"And yet, they are screeching about how the end is near! Panic! Recession! ... The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"

Erm, I've been looking out at the spectacle of wave upon wave of redundancies over the last couple of weeks, when the market is only jittery.

I don't know what it will be like tomorrow. Other than bad, of course.

I overheard one banker on his cellphone today "There is no capital anywhere". Which was an exaggeration but not by much.

justaboutsensible · 29/09/2008 20:37

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expatinscotland · 29/09/2008 20:38

For once in my life, and I never thought I'd see the day, Michael Moore, I AGREE WITH YOU AND I VOTE!

I have contacted my Congressional representatives.

I am posting my ballot at the end of the week from abroad as I am reserving judgement and I am watching them.

I have asked why the banking industry deserves bailed out and not others? I have asked what many of my countrymen are finally asking, 'What about us?'

We've asked those questions before, remember?

expatinscotland · 29/09/2008 20:38

For once in my life, and I never thought I'd see the day, Michael Moore, I AGREE WITH YOU AND I VOTE!

I have contacted my Congressional representatives.

I am posting my ballot at the end of the week from abroad as I am reserving judgement and I am watching them.

I have asked why the banking industry deserves bailed out and not others? I have asked what many of my countrymen are finally asking, 'What about us?'

We've asked those questions before, remember?

S1ur · 29/09/2008 20:38

justabout

morningpaper · 29/09/2008 20:38

@ expat

dinny · 29/09/2008 20:39

oooh, JAS, interesting

though many many professional economists did not predict this, did they? (not dissing your sofa-sharer though!)

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S1ur · 29/09/2008 20:39

I agree with michael moore.

CatIsSleepy · 29/09/2008 20:39

justaboutsensible-yes get him to post

PontipineFinderGeneral · 29/09/2008 20:40

Re: those arguing for market 'corrections'

I'm an economist, but it's a long time since I've done any finance. Nobody with any sense should look at this as the functioning of an efficient market, and anyone arguing for "corrections" in the current climate is speaking from ideology alone at this point.

In normal circumstances, a gentle readjustment to changed facts - be that unacknowledged dodgy debt, or a good harvesft - is generally the most efficient thing to hope for. In these sorts of cases, very few economists will argue against a correction (on efficiency grounds).

For the economy to work well, prices have to have to give a good reflection of the relative demand for different goods and the relative profitability of different companies. This is what the stock exchange does really well in normal times.

Prices aren't defined by the average person, but at what economists call the "margin" or the price of the last possible trade in a market. Most of the time reflects a considered judgement of what different things are worth. Most of the time, this assuumption is at least approximately true.

However, in cases where trades are almost solely conducted on the basis of sentiment - fear, hope, or greed - the market doesn't work that well. In the late 90s, we had a bubble of irrational exuberance, and now we've got a spiral of doom. Things weren't as rosy as most people thought in 2001 and they aren't as bad as most people think now.

In times like this the market won't work that efficiently, and the big changes in a stock market are due to the inherent uncertainty as to what's going to happen next. Basically, noone can work out what things are worth, and so it's all just guesswork. If the market carries on dropping at this rate then by Wednesday evening I suspect trading will be suspended in the US for a couple of days. If it happens, don't panic too much ...

(There are also a bunch of other reasons why this isn't a good thing, and equity is important. People suffer in times like this, and whilst it's not the business of economics to worry too much about equity, few people can ignore it completely - and stay human. The costs of adjusting from one economic paradigm to another is also important, and noone knows how to calculate this!!!)

Anyway, don't panic too much - if we're all screwed, then we'll be screwed regardless of what we do. And if we're not, then it's the people who panic who get screwed first, and hurt most.

justaboutsensible · 29/09/2008 20:40

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dinny · 29/09/2008 20:40

JAS - preferably before 9pm though (America's Nex Top Model is on)

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expatinscotland · 29/09/2008 20:41

Where is the accountability? WHO did this? So much bleating on about how these so-called intelligent brain boxes deserved these huge salaries, pensions and bonuses. They worked so hard, right?

And now it's OUR fault if we don't bail it all out?

WE are the bad guys for not shouldering the blame they don't even acknowledge?

No, sorry, this American doesn't buy that, especially not for $5,000 extra dollars.

FAQ · 29/09/2008 20:41

[grin[

dinny · 29/09/2008 20:41

PFG - a new paradigm then....

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