We may have another virus

[Julia34]

In southwestern Democratic Republic of Congo, 79 people have died from an unknown flu-like illness. The number of infections has exceeded 300. Local doctors are appealing for help. WHO experts arrived at the scene.I hope not gonna be another pandemic

It remains the case that the overwhelming majority of scientists believe that COVID-19 was originally harboured by bats and spread to humans (zoonosis). There is no evidence to support the lab leak theory, whilst there is abundant evidence to support the zoonosis theory. This has not stopped some politicians, journalists, talk show hosts and others promoting the theory, to the point where over half the population of the US apparently believe this theory.

So you think it's not significant that gain of function experiments were being conducted on bat corona viruses in the Wuhan lab a mile from the wet market??

The idea that the Wuhan lab is just a mile from the wet market is one of the many pieces of misinformation circulating on the internet. It is actually 7.5 miles as the crow flies but, as the two sites are on opposite sides of the Yangtze River, over 10 miles by car.

Virus outbreaks generally start in rural areas but are only detected when they spread to large cities. Given the number of laboratories in or near large cities in China that are conducting research into viruses, any virus outbreak in China is likely to first be noticed in a city that has such a laboratory. Correlation does not equal causation.

The view amongst scientists who have studied the virus is pretty much unanimous that the biology of the virus, the close variants circulating in bats and the locations of early human cases points firmly to a natural origin. And those scientists who have looked at the evidence on the gain of function experiments say that they posed biosafety risks but were not the cause of the pandemic.

I am not an expert in any of the relevant sciences but, given that almost all of those promoting the various lab leak theories also lack the necessary expertise, I am happy to accept the view of those who actually know what they are talking about.

FINAL REPORT: COVID Select Concludes 2-Year Investigation, Issues 500+ Page Final Report on Lessons Learned and the Path Forward - United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountability

COVID-19 ORIGIN: COVID-19 most likely emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. The FIVE strongest arguments in favor of the “lab leak” theory include:

1. The virus possesses a biological characteristic that is not found in nature.
2. Data shows that all COVID-19 cases stem from a single introduction into humans. This runs contrary to previous pandemics where there were multiple spillover events.
3. Wuhan is home to China’s foremost SARS research lab, which has a history of conducting gain-of-function research at inadequate biosafety levels.
4. Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) researchers were sick with a COVID-like virus in the fall of 2019, months before COVID-19 was discovered at the wet market.
5. By nearly all measures of science, if there was evidence of a natural origin it would have already surfaced.

And on the subject - the evidence currently seems to suggest that this is not "a new virus" but people presenting with multiple infections including malaria, flu and covid. Sorry to disappoint - probably nothing more than a bunch of very poor and unhealthy people on the brink of starvation in an area with almost no healthcare. Nothing to give a second thought to. Back to excessive Christmas shopping.

The United States are certainly a bastion of truth, and have absolutely no reason to lie about a competing superpower trade partner.

Why would you assume they are lying? After all, it's a matter of record that they were actually funding the research in the Wuhan lab.

Agreed I just read that 10 out of 12 people who were tested, tested positive for malaria.

This is a report by a select committee of the US House of Representatives, i.e. politicians - in this case, Republicans. It took evidence from a huge number of people, most of whom were not scientists at all, let alone scientists with appropriate qualifications. Some of their conclusions are directly contrary to the scientific evidence, others are based on unsubstantiated rumours. The Democrats on the committee issued their own report, disagreeing with the Republicans.

The idea that the virus "possesses biological characteristics not found in nature" is simply wrong. It is based on an argument by a journalist that, since no other sarbecovirus had a furin cleavage site, Covid cannot have gained such a site through normal evolutionary processes. However, many bat coronaviruses and betacoronaviruses (of which sarbecovirus is a subset) have furin cleavage sites, and the furin cleavage site of the Covid virus was observed evolving naturally throughout the pandemic. Virologists (who, unlike journalists, are the experts) do not believe that the furrin cleavage site is evidence of a human designed virus.

I could go on and pull apart their other conclusions but there is little point. This is not in any way an authoritative report.

Errmm, because politicians lie for their own agenda? I'd be more surprised if they told the truth. But let's make America great again...

One of the politicians who came up with this report was that well-known scientific expert Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Sarcasm mode off.

For anyone tempted to take this report seriously...

I have already explained that conclusion 1 is clearly incorrect and is based on an argument by a journalist.

Conclusion 2 (single introduction into humans) is also clearly wrong. Epidemiological modelling using the available data shows clearly that there were multiple spillover events.

The suggestion that biosafety is inadequate at the Wuhan laboratory is almost always made as a bare assertion without any supporting evidence. We know that the lab was built to high standards and that the staff were well trained. That doesn't guarantee that biosafety was good, but there does not seem to be any credible evidence that it was not.

The allegation that researchers were off sick with a Covid-like virus months before Covid emerged is another bare assertion unsupported by any credible evidence. It has been specifically denied. Those who promote the various lab leak theories don't accept denials from the Chinese authorities or those who work at the lab, but they have not come up with any credible, verifiable evidence that this happened.

Conclusion 5 ignores the fact that there is plenty of evidence that the virus emerged naturally.

We cannot completely rule out any possibility of the virus passing through the lab, but all the evidence points to it being a natural virus that spread naturally and that the lab was not involved at all.

Some people can not handle the fact that we as humans can't control things like covid. That these viruses can just come from no where at anytime and there are countless waiting for a opportunity to jump the species barrier. It feels safer to think a human invents them and therefore humans are in control I guess.

It was very insulting to the scientific community when Bob down the road without a GCSE pass in Biology suddenly starts spouting facts.