I’m not trying to come across as ‘Putin, my man, w’sup my bro?’ but, and I say this as a fear diffuser, not a side taker, Putin is extremely intelligent, strategic, methodical. He’s Russian. Russians don’t all go in at once. They play the long game. Russia has a loooong ass history and cultural pride that is different to say, my culture. I’m American. I was raised on a hysterical fear of Twilight Zone nuclear winters becoming a reality. Different strokes.
Remember who’s dropped the nukes: My country. I’m always more worried about US response and approach to conflict. We’re rather knee jerk and c’mon, we manufactured Dick Cheney. We’re the scary ones here! 😆
OP this is for you:
There are 3 things that win a war: population, wealth, weapons.
There are 2 things Putin wants to remain under Russian control: The ethnically Russian Donbas region and the Crimea (Sevastopol).
There is 1 thing he does not want and that’s NATO expansion. And NATO is expanding, has expanded. Ukraine as a potential NATO member is like Putin’s worst nightmare. It’s right there on his doorstep and this is a step-up in aggression towards Russia. It is what it is. But this is one root of the conflict. Putin doesn’t like NATO bases and missiles on his borders.
As for willy waving:
Russia has more power but the US, I believe, has better long range weapons. New ones that Russia doesn’t know how to shoot down. That’s a big threat and gives Putin food for thought.
That said, it would be really stupid for America to give those missiles to Ukraine to use. And America knows this. The bold incursion into Kursk, inside Russia ultimately weakened Ukraine’s manpower because they had to take a bunch of their own men off their most important front in order to go into Russia. Short term bravery by the Ukrainians, long term weakness. A lesson for NATO. American has taken note.
The important thing to remember is that using those long range weapons on Russian soil would absolutely seal Ukraine’s already extremely shaky fate, a fate that America has a responsibility now to defend. America cannot go back on its word. It won’t. Nor can it go all scorched earth and destroy its own interest (Ukraine) just to exert power over and pressure on Russia. Ukraine will not survive if there is a major and catastrophic attack on Russian soil. Everyone knows this. And everyone knows that this cannot happen.
Ukraine won’t ‘win’ this war. But Ukraine needs to not be totally destroyed in the process.
And its biggest allies owe it to the Ukrainian people to ensure that a post war Ukraine (we don’t know how this will look) survives and had some capacity to function. I don’t think the US will allow Ukraine to be annihilated. I could be totally wrong. My country is a little nutty and hegemonic. Anyway, Putin wants his Crimean ports and land that he believes should be Russian. Whatever. That’s his journey.
That’s what he wants. Not European domination. Russia doesn’t have the economy to gather a renewed interest in an Eastern Bloc version 2.0. This is not what Putin wants. That would exhaust Russia’s economy and forces and it would be superfluous for Russia. He doesn’t want a European land grab.
I see all sides so please don’t think I’m pro any side. I just want people to stop dying on fronts!
Anyway…
I think Ukraine will be pushed to the brink of existence (I mean, it’s already there), but the outcome here is that Ukraine has to somehow survive and exist (Russia will likely get the Donbas region). It just has to somewhat survive. It would be an embarrassment for America if Ukraine didn’ survive. And it would be a tragedy that no leader wants, even Putin.
We’re at the crossroads. My prediction, based on listening to those old, wise analysts who’ve seen kingdoms rise and fall a multitude of times, is that this war will end this winter or next spring and not by nuclear means. I hope I’m right. But this is a real moment that requires very cool heads, a dying breed. But they do prevail.
It’s 90 seconds to midnight. Our leaders need to use diplomacy and less arms. This is the time for discussion and negotiation. Not fanatical rhetoric.