Missing woman

[MyOldCaravan]

BBC News - Nicola Bulley: Partner describes perpetual hell over missing mum
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-64450243

Just been reading about this. How awful for her partner and children. Really hope she is found soon

Not if she got put in a car or similar...

Where she was is not near a road though. She'd have to be taken back to the main road where there would be cctv or drivers who would see her.

Not unimaginable at all. Remember Lin and Josie Russell in Kent?

I don't know the area but the abandoned house must have private(?) car access, she could have been taken there & out in a car there out of sight? Could she?

To even get to the abandoned house, she would have to go back onto the main road. It's totally the other side of the river

@ofwarren are you local? Can I ask what you think had happened?

I live about 3 miles away now but I did used to live in the village, about 8 years ago.

Here's a map of where she was.
The cross is where she accessed the river towpath, the circle is the bench and I've underlined the house on the other side of the river.

As you can see, to get to that house, she'd have to go totally back where she came. You can't cross the river to it either because there is a huge wall that you cannot climb.

As to what what happened, I'm stumped. My first guess is she went in the river, but there are no signs on the bank of her going in and it was also shallow at that time.
It's also possible she was taken to the caravan park which is just above where the bench is on that picture, but I can't understand why the dog wouldn't follow if that's where she went.

The bench is also yards from a fishing hut and there is a pond just behind the hedges to the left.
I'm assuming that pond has had the divers in?

It's so odd. Isn't the dog a Springer Spaniel? The dog would have jumped in the rover if she had fallen in, but the dog was dry. Also, aren't Springers usually good at scent work?

It would make no sense to abandon the dog outside if she wanted to disappear.

river*

Maybe it was a really unfortunate accident where she slipped, hit her head on a stone and entered the water unconscious. Or she felt dizzy and fainted and fell into the water.

I am not totally dismissing the abduction story. But to me it seems more likely she for some reason drowned in that river.

Yes
I'm baffled
Did someone distract the dog maybe?
I'm clutching at straws to be honest

But it's a shallow river so where is the body? Also the police said there was no evidence that she slipped into the water. And Springer Spaniels usually love water. The dog would have jumped in, but it was dry.

The road to the caravan park looks very near. And there is tree cover.

I find it more believable that the dog was distracted by someone (my dog would forget I existed for anything edible) and then took her to the caravan park whilst the dog was distracted. That's why the dog was so distressed looking for her when she was gone.

This would make more sense to me than her drowning in shallow waters without there being any trace or wanting to disappear leaving her dog to fend for herself outside.

The dog wouldn't necessarily have jumped in. I'm not sure you all realise just how far down the water is from the bench. It's steep. You can't walk down to the water there, it would've had to leap off the edge and drop down.

The caravan park would be the nearest place for a vehicle. Apparently the woman who found the dog and tied it up due to having an appointment is the owner of a local business. I've seen it written that she is the owner of the caravan park.

The cross here is where the bench is. The abandoned house across the river is a red herring I think.

The line I've drawn is the closest place you'd normally see a vehicle from the bench. It's just a short walk along the trees to the camping field.

@itsnote thats a lot closer than I expected. Is the gate a gate the dog would have been able to follow her through on its own?

Are the police doing door to door do you know?

It says in the Independent that they have had the sniffer dogs out today.

It was reported there was a cadaver dog on the fire and rescue boat today but not aware of any door to door.

I don't think the dog could get through the gate on its own. It's a kissing gate with wire mesh covering any gaps.

It does seem like they think she's gone in the water. It's steep there, definitely possible to take a tumble and find yourself in.

That's what I believe happened. She took a tumble, maybe hit her head somewhere, became unconscious and therefore was unable to rescue herself, even if the water was shallow.

Alot of talk about the river as the cause of her being missing but it's worthwhile to point out that from the videos of the area in front of the bench it's a very steep flat drop down to the water without a lot of foliage to hold on to, the dog was found dry so I don't think the dog went in the water as it would have been very hard for it to get out. The water depth at the area was under 1m as you can see from the search team wading through it right in front of the bench, They aren't walking against a strong current either. It's calm and easily traversed. The Facebook photos form NIcola shows her dog in and out the water harness sometimes on/off and they walk the same route almost every walk as seen in her strava posts of her route and distance walked. She knew the area and river very well.

Lancashire Police are keeping an "open mind" about all possibilities, they have not found any evidence to suspect foul play. My opinion based on this and the partners haste to call 999 is that something about it rang alarms bells to him. Putting myself in that situation and I personally would not have called 999 straight away because I would look about and shout and call her first, that something horrible had happened wouldn't be my first guess. In my opinion alarm bells related to her mental health has freaked her partner out and that what he has said has also struck the police as serious enough to attend straight away, this is only my opinion based on what I have read so far and also comparing to other missing persons cases where families are asked to wait a lot longer f before police take over.

Usually mental health difficulties are flagged at this point, thinking of the woman found washed up on the beach near Redcar a couple of years ago, suicide presumed.

Why is the caravan site not as probable and an abduction? The harness might have been slipped if dog freed itself after being tied to the bench by the woman passer by? Also IF the phone was found on the ground and then placed on the bench by the same woman, we have no evidence she was ever on the bench in the first place. Couldn't someone have come up behind her and taken her off to the caravan site or somewhere close by? Someone could have been watching and planning for weeks, her walk and route seemingly entirely predictable. If there's no evidence of a river fall why isn't this possible? The police need to act fast with a possible abduction, how were they able to rule this out so very quickly?

Surely a boot or a piece of clothing or something would have turned up by now if she was in the river, with all that careful scrutiny of it and the twisty-ness and shallowness in parts? And mainly being no more than waist high re: water leve?

@Peverellshire I think the same thing, I am confused what they know from the get go about NB that foul play was ruled out what felt like VERY early on. And it must of been ruled out pretty solidly because they have had reporters and alot of public standing/walking/sitting on the place her dog and belongings were found which to me is a bit concerning the amount of traffic gone through there means even if they were to focus on that as a cause it's too late now. I also wonder if she was even at that bench.