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Poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal (part 2)

324 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/04/2018 20:20

new thread as the old one is practically done.

OP posts:
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nursy1 · 13/04/2018 00:02

Just thought it was interesting that it is projected we occupy the moral high ground in the use of these dreadful things. We don’t!

Chemical and biological weapons are out there in the world, could be made by god knows who and in many ways more terrifying than the Mutually Assured Destruction of the Cold War because you couldn’t be that sure where to retaliate.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 00:52

We’re you to be as critical of putin inside Russia or Assad inside Syria I suspect you would meet with an untimely accident.

Ahem. I'm sure counterpoint would like it noted that he hasn't been critical of Putin.Wink

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 01:19

BTW, re counterpoint's blatantly false claim that Russia is the most equipped nation... The US spends more than 8 times what Russia does on its military:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_Russian_Federation
Absolute expenditures in USD
Country/Region Official budget (latest)
United States $585 billion
United Kingdom $56.9 billion
Russian Federation $69.3 billion

(Do check that link, it gives a lot more detail.)

Russia's getting excellent bang for its buck from "active measures", ie spreading disinformation, as James Clapper described at the US Senate hearing into Russian attempts to interfere with the US election. And Putin has increased military spending in recent years. But this pays for a conscript army, not a fully professional one. And since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia's per capita income has been falling. Which may create domestic difficulties.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 01:22

Bill Browder explained this well at the Commons DCMS hearing into Fake News.

data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/digital-culture-media-and-sport-committee/fake-news/oral/79824.html

Bill Browder: Well, you should say, what is the objective? Vladimir Putin’s objective is to stay in power and to keep all his money. How does he stay in power and keep all his money? It’s not easy with a bunch of people in his country who are—I mean, any person, whether you are the best leader or the worst leader, if you have been around for 17 years, people start getting tired of you. And in his particular case, they’re getting tired of him, and the economy is not doing well, and people are getting poorer. So what do you do? You go out and you start wars, you create chaos and you create foreign enemies. This is all sort of “Machiavelli Dictator’s Playbook 101” that Putin is after.

So what is his strategy? His strategy is to have foreign enemies that are not at war with him. He can’t be at war; he’s got to have an asymmetric war. He could not survive a real military conflict. This is a perfect asymmetric war: to pretend you’re not doing it, to send in little green men to Crimea and then say, “No, they weren’t ours”, and to do all this stuff where you spend $1.5 million a month sending out messages from the internet research institute in St Petersburg, and things that are plausibly deniable, which have a huge effect, but do not require huge resources to do. He’s become the expert at asymmetric war.
[...]
This strategy is not going to work for him. In the end, we’re all going to anger to such an extent that we will come up with solutions for all the stuff he’s doing. Democracies are slow to anger, but when we do it’s going to be devastating for him.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 01:34

I do feel incredibly sorry for the Russian people. The country has been through such a difficult transition in my lifetime from repressive communist state... And now the people are living with a mafia state instead.Sad

It's not what I hoped for, for them, back when the Soviet Union collapsed.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 01:48

It's tempting to look forward to eventual end of Putin's rule as the end of Russia's current ills.

But unless the gangster state structure is dismantled (no easy job), it will just be a case of replacing one kleptocratic authoritarian with a succession of others. And the ordinary people will still be lumbered.

I absolutely take my hat off to brave people like Anna Politkovskaya, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Politkovskaya , who was murdered for telling the Russian people the truth.

And to the whistleblowers from inside the Internet Research Agency:
www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/putin-kremlin-inside-russian-troll-house

Their courage takes my breath away. There must be hope for Russia while the country produces people of this calibre.

counterpoint · 13/04/2018 13:18

Perking, I would save your patronising pity for the Russian people and instead pity us who are fatter, sicker and poorer not to mention way behind intellectually and educationally. That's my personal view, of course, both anecdotal and empirical.

And as for military capability, I'm not talking about how much we spend or mis-spend on arms, but how far ahead the Russians are because they are scientifically and technologically more efficient. Have you seen those super duper speedy missiles shown off on the European media ( not on our media, though)?

Isn't that why we are whingeing that they have more powerful cyber capabilities that can destroy our economies and as this thread suggests, they are well ahead in developing powerful nerve agents?

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 13:36

Am I getting in the way of your patronising cant about the poor British people and poor Britain, counterpoint?

You know, you could be one of the brave ones. Even if you're not brave enough to whistleblow, you could just leave the job. Or is that scary too?

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 13:41

What do you feel will happen when Putin goes, counterpoint?

Will Russia fall apart without him as a centralising authoritarian ruler? Will there be a succession of authoritarian rulers, taking advantage of the weakened state for personal enrichment? Or will it transition to a meaningful democracy?

Heyduggeesflipflop · 13/04/2018 13:54

Counterpoint

You seem to have an almost bottomless degree of admiration for Russia. Where does that point of view come from?

counterpoint · 13/04/2018 14:17

For perking:

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/satan-2-russia-icbm-missile-destroy-countries-us-nuclear-weapons-intercontinental-ballistic-a8022831.html

These missiles are why we are so pissed off but not because we actually believe the Russia's will attack us with these weapons, but that they are economic competition in our trade war with selling to the Saudies, Turks and other nasties.

The Russians are just competition and they are better and cleverer than us so we have to resort to such silly, dirty tricks to win the propaganda war.

Of course, under Putin, Russia has known a lot of stability and we hate that. We have ousted other leaders (e.g. Saddam and Gaddafi) just because they managed to bring stability to their countries. We would love to make Russia crumble!

We like divide and rule, don't we?

OutwiththeOutCrowd · 13/04/2018 14:28

I notice that the OPCW summary is scrupulous in not mentioning the R-word. It also does not mention the N-word, perhaps because to do so seems like a covert nod in the direction of Russia.The actual scientific name for the substance, whilst not likely to offend, would relate to the structure, which must be kept under wraps.

So a coy statement is given saying, in essence, we get the toxic chemical to be what they get it to be, without saying, or providing a reference to, what that is. Maybe a new politically correct Esperanto-esque colloquial name for the substance is required so it can be mentioned explicitly in polite company without appearing to implicate anyone.

I am also struck by the tautology of, ‘…the toxic chemical was of high purity. The latter is concluded from the almost complete absence of impurities.’ I might be reading too much into it but I did wonder if the explicit mentioning of there being a lack of impurities was a way of letting it be known that it would be impossible to pin down the origin of the material through its impurity profile, even with reference samples available.

The summary also says

‘The results of analysis of the environmental samples conducted by OPCW designated laboratories demonstrate the presence of this toxic chemical in the samples.’

Thus, while the presence of the active agent is confirmed, we are not told if any excipients were found in the environmental samples.

There are some who remain sceptical about the nature of the event in Salisbury because of the curious delay between exposure and the onset of symptoms, given the toxicity of the agent involved. I think the hoi polloi could cope with some kind of explanation of this, should the authorities have an understanding of it themselves. There would be no need to go into specifics, but it would be enlightening to know if there was evidence in the environmental samples of the nerve agent having been formulated in a sustained release medium.

Admittedly, even if such a delivery system were identified, it would only explain a gradual build up of the agent in the body and onset of symptoms, not the apparently-coordinated abrupt collapse of both Skripals.

As it happens, I’m now wondering if the Skripals might have bought a takeaway coffee from the Greggs near the bench, the heat from which hiked up the absorption rate of the nerve agent on their hands to catastrophic effect.

(If the cognoscenti don’t want plebs like me to fill up the information vacuum with outlandish speculations, they need to provide more facts!)

counterpoint · 13/04/2018 14:28

My point of view comes from the fact I have noticed we are going in the wrong direction and Russia are going in (if not the right direction) a better direction.

Neither country (UK or Russia) is perfect nor will they ever be.

But we are regressing, fast, with workers' rights disappearing and warmongering has become second nature. We are fed lies which isolate us from the rest of the world.

We seem to have given up and are saddling our youth with incredible debts that will enslave them to the banks for their whole lives.

I just know Britain can do better and if we stop trying to destroy Europe, perhaps one day our kids will take us back into the EU.

counterpoint · 13/04/2018 14:35

OutwiththeOutCrowd - excellent post.

The "high purity" statement says the most. Nothing about the presence of gels or doorknob remnants? Nothing in the samples to link them to their pathway before ending up in the Skripals? Almost like they were made in a lab and then given straight to the OPCW to confirm their nature.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 14:41

We like divide and rule, don't we?

Well, you do.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 15:20

And no, I don't think Putin's increasingly authoritarian rule and development of a personality cult is taking Russia in a good direction.

I can't lay my hands on the ref for this, but I think it was Browder who said that in the early days of Putin's rule, Putin was still trying make Russia a country of laws.

It wasn't a perfect country (none ever is), but there was at least an attempt to fight corruption and for the state to have some sort of integrity. But then Putin changed tack and threw in his lot with the oligarchs.

Now the mafia are fully integrated with the state. Lawyers die in prison for investigating theft by state officials: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Magnitsky

Putin tries to distract from this by thumping the nationalist tub and trying to unite voters around a message of "victimhood of poor lil' Russia" combined with "supremacy of wonderful Russia". It's a contradictory but traditional combo that historically has worked for everyone from current white supremacists in the US to Hitler's Germany in the 1930s ("we're naturally superior; poor little us we're victims").

There's an illuminating account of some of the issues in this article about the murder of Russian opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015:

Here is fascinating new research on crime in Russia
www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/19/new-issue-of-theoretical-criminology-features-research-on-post-soviet-region/?utm_term=.25a70acbcb89

(Nemtosov was killed after leading protests against Putin's government's invasion of Ukraine.)

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 15:25

they are well ahead in developing powerful nerve agents?

This rather undermines your argument that it can't be Russia because other countries have Novichok too...

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 15:30

But as I said on the previous thread, the case has never hinged on whether Russia is the only country with Novichoks.

It's also about which country has them and would be prepared to use them to try to assassinate people.

PerkingFaintly · 13/04/2018 15:42

This covers other technologies too.

Being aggressive is not a sign of being technologically advanced; it's a sign of being aggressive.

Dapplegrey · 13/04/2018 15:45

This rather undermines your argument that it can't be Russia because other countries have Novichok too...

Good point, Perking.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 13/04/2018 16:31

The OPWC took their own samples including blood samples. Of course the public report doesn't talk about any carrier material, if one was used. It was two pages or thereabouts. It wasn't written for all of the MissMarples out there, but just to confirm that the UKs analysis was accurate.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 13/04/2018 16:32

my silly ipad has mislearnt the order of letters in OPCW!

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BettyBaggins · 13/04/2018 18:35

I had a read of the article with Yulia's best friend. There are some interesting timings mentioned in relation to the death of Yulia's brother and when she met her boyfriend I thought. The friend paints Yulia as fun, introverted and secretive. She didnt tell her friend when her Mum or brother died for instance. Friend seems confused knowing she was likely the longest friend she had but that she is only now from the press understanding how difficult Yulia's life must of been to manage in recent years. No-one speaks fondly of the missing boyfriend.

Meanwhile Viktoria is protesting with a handmade placard looking like an embarrasing distant family member. Friend mentioned Viktoria had never been close to Yulia and she was confused why she was acting as if she had.

Sorry for paraphrasing, I left the magazine at work!

counterpoint · 13/04/2018 19:21

Of course the public report doesn't talk about any carrier material, if one was used.

Why not? This was crucial evidence!

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