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Brexit war and deaths

100 replies

Longlost10 · 16/07/2016 09:23

How likely is it that Brexit will lead eventually to a civl war? I've heard a lot of discussion about how long it has been since we were this close to civil war in the Britain, and how low we could descend as the country slowly crumbles around us over the coming years and decades.

Anybody with any real insight and back ground knowledge that could give any reassurance on this issue?

(I have no interest at all in the ignorant knee jerk defensive lashing out of the leavers who have no comprehension of what they have done, and what is going to happen)

I can see that there will most likely be deaths, many deaths, that will be related to the loss of politically and economically coordinated support for scientific research, such as the research into new antibiotics which is absolutely vital to prevent the next generation being decimated by infectious disease. And anyone who thinks the uk can match the funding that the EU provided for this is not worth responding to, and for anyone who even thinks that matching the funding for isolated research groups would in any case be equivalent to giving the same funding for coordinated groups anyway, ... well it has been estimated that isolated groups in medicine would require something like 80x as much for the same results. And for environmental protection and pollution control, well in excess of this.

I would assume the number of Brexit related deaths in coming generations will be immeasurable.

But actual war??

OP posts:
BillSykesDog · 18/07/2016 07:19

Billsykesdog. Are you really basing your argument that our civil order is secure on the assumption that violent factions within the uk would not ever be able to arm themselves?

Yes. Yes I am. Why do you think the IRA were so reluctant to disarm? Because if you're not armed you can't be an effective resistance and they knew it would neuter them and they'd probably never be able to rearm because gun running into the UK is very, very hard now.

Even our most serious civil disorder over the last few years such as the London riots were short term, low casualty, didn't require army intervention and posed no real threat to political order.

What do you think you're going to do? Wave baguettes at the army until they go away? We are not the US or the Middle East where armed militia can be easily raised and organised and pose a real threat.

Lweji · 18/07/2016 08:10

It has nothing to do with being superior.

The two countries have very little in common in many ways.
Where is the dictator that is keeping two warring faction quiet by force?

Where are the two groups that hate each other so badly? (You mentioned Northern Ireland, but even at its worst it wasn't civil war)
Where's the lack of democratic tradition?

Of course nothing is impossible, but you could also start worrying about asteroid hits.

supersoftcuddlytoys · 18/07/2016 08:13

Yes I agree neonrainbow. Quite ridiculous. Wasn't starvation, social collapse and violent revolution expected at the end of WW1's & 2? The Depression.The break up of the Empire, the Oil crisis in the 70's, Thatcher ism, Black Tuesday, (or was it Wednesday?) in the 80's. The Banking crisis of 2008, the various recessions?

I blame the Media for all this dividing up of the nation. London voted this way and Scotland voted that way etc, just to shit-stir and extract a story or two..

TheSolitaryBoojum · 18/07/2016 08:22

Will you be disappointed if your vision doesn't come to pass, OP?
Because based on the historical evidence and this country's previous responses to crisis and change over the past several hundred years, I don't think Civil war is on the cards.
Other unsavoury possibilities perhaps, I did worry about 'Fortress Europe' 20 years ago and lo and behold, when the refugee crisis intensified, that's pretty much what happened. Barricades and fences went up, and the religious intolerance rocketed.
I'm more worried about the future of non-white not-indigenous people living in countries that see those criteria as a threat, and the subsequent purgings that may be demanded. Hopefully resisted by the majority.

Samosajoe · 18/07/2016 08:51

OP...there is the future possibility that the EU could break down, or change significantly. It is a trading union not Saviour of the Universe.

Lweji · 18/07/2016 08:54

Now I'm imagining Junker in a cape and holding a sword high. With lightning.

scaryteacher · 18/07/2016 09:24

scaryteacher, the rage and contempt is very real, widespread and will be long enduring. This is not in any dispute. We did leave in a peaceful, law abiding prosperous country, but can we take this for granted, now still? There is absolutely no comparison at all between 13 years of a government you disagree with, and taking an action that will destroy your country for ever. If you think the two are in any way anywhere close to the same order of magnitude, then you are another one who just doesn't understand what they have done.

There are people who would take up arms to protect the UK, My question was, who thinks this is likely/ unikely, to be the eventual outcome. But the answers have no validity, without understanding the fury, despair and hatred, or with insight into the real situation.

I really think you have lost the plot. Yes, some people are pissed off about the result, as I would have been if we had lost, but I wouldn't have indulged in the sturm and drang that you are exhibiting here.

The UK remains a law abiding, peaceful and prosperous country, so what has changed, apart from the fact that we will be leaving a supra national political organisation, outside of which much of the planet manages to exist, and thrive? We are leaving one organisation; we are not leaving NATO, the G20, the UN, the G7, the WHO, the IMF, the Commonwealth etc are we? Do get a grip and grow up.

Leaving the EU will not destroy the UK for ever. Don't be so wet. I understand very well what I was voting for and am fully aware that there will be a quid pro quo on things, but I wanted the UK out of the EU, especially having watched what it has done to Greece, and the ineffectiveness with regards to the migrant crisis, and the financial crisis.

For me there is a comparison between Labour being in for 13 years, as I can't see where they actually improved anything ...especially when Brown signed Lisbon. Thank goodness that is now being reversed.

I know there are people who would take up arms to protect the UK, I am a forces daughter, wife, sister and aunt, so that would be my family who will take up arms. We are also in NATO who would protect us if attacked. There is no chance of civil war in the UK because the people in the main are too pragmatic for that; there would be intelligence on this and steps would be taken, and HM Forces would if necessary, be used to pout down any insurrection, unless of course you would like to invite in EUGENDFOR?

We are not breaking off with our allies, think of all the bi-lateral treaties in operation which have sod all to do with the EU; our 'foundations' predate the EU by centuries; some of us were born, like my Mum, before the ECSC existed. There is life outside the EU.

You evidently don't want to listen to any of the very sensible answers that have been given to you, and you are sounding hysterical. If you have evidence that violent factions within the UK have been able to arm themselves, I suggest that you contact the police with the information.

scaryteacher · 18/07/2016 09:25

lweji It would be a cognac bottle surely, not a sword!

TheSolitaryBoojum · 18/07/2016 10:47

Scary, I don't think that the OP is coming across as a pragmatic Englishwoman. Maybe her own culture and experiences abroad are making her sound like a hysterical Cassandra.
Either way, OP, are you planning on staying in the UK or leaving to secure the safety of your family against your nightmare vision of our future.
And if so, where will you go that is more stable over the next 50 years?

scaryteacher · 18/07/2016 13:33

Boojum, I agree, but she needs to stop the hysterical act.

I've been in Brussels for a decade now, but I feel far safer in the UK.

I think Brexit is an opportunity, not a calamity, and I certainly don't think it will lead to civil war in the UK.

AllTheMadmen · 19/07/2016 12:04

I think the reverse op, I think voting out will help to quell the anger I have witnessed and seen in people.

If we had voted to remain I would be feeling frightened. Now I feel relief.

AllTheMadmen · 19/07/2016 12:05

Scary are you in Belgium right now? I am passing through soon, is it safe!

scaryteacher · 19/07/2016 15:55

AllTheMadmen...I live here, so yeah, I'm in Belgium and it seems quiet. Dh trogs in and out of Brussels every day for work and we haven't had any security warnings from the Embassy or the military or the grapevine.

I would avoid Brussels on Thursday as it is National Day, and security will be very thorough (hopefully)., and it will be very crowded.

Longlost10 · 23/07/2016 05:02

news.sky.com/story/brexit-could-cost-lives-of-vulnerable-children-10508934?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

There was an item on channel 4 news last night explaining what brexit will cost in terms of medical research, and children's lives specifically at GOSH. Obviously, this is just one institution out of many, many, so this effect will be multiplied manyfold.

They are calling on the government not to Brexit scientific research, and there are leavers who claim that scientific research doesn't have to be brexited, but this is just unworkable, as scientific collaboration relies on economic and political collaboration.

The suggestion is an EU wide "science passport" Hmm

or we could just stay in the EU?

OP posts:
Brexit · 23/07/2016 07:32

And I saw another eminent scientist saying the report was false and that many of his research projects (in oncology) had been cancelled by the EU possibly resulting in deaths.

Longlost10 · 23/07/2016 08:33

And I saw another eminent scientist saying the report was false
So his complaint was that he already wasn't able to get enough EU funding, while we were in EU? And that he desperately needs it? Hes finished for good now then, isn't he

the only bases I've seen anyone disagree with this GOSH appeal is

a) o well, we won't brexit scientific research, with no plan or idea at all about how that would be possible, to brexit somethings and not others.

b) just blanket denigration " this is hysterical" , as if simply insulting the scientists, and moving on has answered them in some way

OP posts:
Lweji · 23/07/2016 08:40

It WILL depend on the terms of leaving.
Many countries outside of Europe benefit from funds.
I'm sure the UK government will match in funds what they give the EU now. So UK scientists will have even more money available.
Yeah. Sure.

It's a long shot to say that it will lead to deaths. Life saving research takes many years and it will be done by someone.
And war not likely.

scaryteacher · 23/07/2016 15:19

It wasn't about EU funding, but the EU compliance that was mandatory and made the trials uneconomical.

MangoMoon · 23/07/2016 15:31

OP...there is the future possibility that the EU could break down, or change significantly. It is a trading union not Saviour of the Universe.

Haha!!
Yes, this.

Out of interest OP - what do you actually think the EU is??!!

Longlost10 · 23/07/2016 16:00

but the EU compliance that was mandatory

compliance with what, precisely? or is this just another vague, nebulous anti eu justifying fantasy?

OP posts:
Brexit · 23/07/2016 16:32

Did we not have any scientific research before the EU?

Itinerary · 23/07/2016 20:18
Biscuit
Lindy2 · 23/07/2016 22:46

There's an interesting article in the Telegraph that says without all the eu red tape and restrictions innovative research in the UK will thrive. Sometimes organisations actually get too big to be able to work properly.

scaryteacher · 23/07/2016 23:49

Long lost...when I can be arsed I'll find the article where this was said. No doubt you'll dismiss that as well, as you have everything else that doesn't agree with your whinge fest.

Longlost10 · 24/07/2016 04:09

Long lost...when I can be arsed I'll find the article where this was said

Looking forward to it

OP posts:
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