Brexit war and deaths

[Longlost10]

How likely is it that Brexit will lead eventually to a civl war? I've heard a lot of discussion about how long it has been since we were this close to civil war in the Britain, and how low we could descend as the country slowly crumbles around us over the coming years and decades.

Anybody with any real insight and back ground knowledge that could give any reassurance on this issue?

(I have no interest at all in the ignorant knee jerk defensive lashing out of the leavers who have no comprehension of what they have done, and what is going to happen)

I can see that there will most likely be deaths, many deaths, that will be related to the loss of politically and economically coordinated support for scientific research, such as the research into new antibiotics which is absolutely vital to prevent the next generation being decimated by infectious disease. And anyone who thinks the uk can match the funding that the EU provided for this is not worth responding to, and for anyone who even thinks that matching the funding for isolated research groups would in any case be equivalent to giving the same funding for coordinated groups anyway, ... well it has been estimated that isolated groups in medicine would require something like 80x as much for the same results. And for environmental protection and pollution control, well in excess of this.

I would assume the number of Brexit related deaths in coming generations will be immeasurable.

But actual war??

sorry. lweji, I did assume your post was sarcastic, but it has just occurred to me that it might actually have been a considered prediction

And Soon a zombie apocalypse no doubt.

Scientific progress will continue underground as Brexit ravages the overlanders. When their IQ's have been sufficiently lowered The Illuminati will release the zombie virus. The German controlled EU will watch on the side lines until enough people are infected, giving them the excuse to use nuclear weapons.

This will be the signal for Hitler to return from the dark side of the moon with his army of genetically enhanced super troopers he has been breeding to take over the world. Humanity will be reduced to a slave race and all because England voted to be a self governing democracy.

What have we done, why weren't we warned? Somebody quick, start a petition to rerun the referendum.

Wow you're a little ray of sunshine OP. I see doom and gloom is big in your world so presume you've started building your bunker? What utter bullshit.

It was sarcastic.

Plasmodium is here where?

And Brexit has nothing to do with malaria.
It will be global warming that will do it.

Over the last couple of days I have seen Good Morning Britain blame Farage for the Nice attacks and a Welsh Labour MP blame Leave voters for the attempted coup in Turkey (his constituency was 54% Leave btw).

No real shock to see people suggesting it is going to ignite a civil war lol. Brexit is definitely to blame for our rubbish summer!

Plasmodium is here where?

2000 people a year bring it into the uk inside their bodies, and many will remain carriers for life. Anopheles is here too. But monitored and controlled by eu directives and funding. Do you honestly believe this tiny scrap of rock would have the resources to do that for itself in isolation, without political, medical, economic, scientific and social collaboration? As with other medical issues, it is estimated that the cost to carry out in isolation would be approx 80x the proportion of our cost when working in collaboration with the rest of Europe.

It will be global warming that will do it.

Malaria thrived and killed in Southern Britain for thousands of years before global warming, it was eradicated less than 80 years ago, and has been kept at bay by the EU for decades.

And Brexit has nothing to do with malaria.

Of course it doesn't. Cos those pesky European mosquitoes will respect our borders now, won't they.

I think you will find we don't get to choose what non political consequences happen as a result of this brexit

Perhaps the Op would care to predict what HM Forces will be doing during this civil war?

I am a damn sight more worried about the ME further going up in flames and what China is up to at the moment in the South China Sea than I am about the possibility of a civil war in the UK.

• but guess what, it doesn't SPREAD person to person here, because it is tightly monitored and controlled.

By the EU* How do they do that then, and why aren't they doing it in Belgium? I fail to see how the EU stops travellers being bitten and infected when they are in Africa and Asia for example.

anopheles mosquitoes spread the plasmodium scaryteacher. The anaopheles populations are monitored and controlled on a Europe wide scale, a thousand times more effective than individual countries doing it alone. Data is collected and coordinated, and analysed, again Europe wide, so the historical and current epidemiology of the disease is better understood and applied, and directives on levels and control are enforced.

No, you can't prevent the plasmodium travelling round the world, it is travelling inside the bodies of carriers, it is in the uk and every where else. The control is done by controlling the anopheles. But without the political and economic collaboration, then collaboration on such issues as this will be dissolved.

Malaria has nothing to do with global warming. It was indigenous to the uk. It is the disease called ague, in England. It declined massively in the 1920s and 30s with the draining of marsh land, and was eradicated completely here around 50 years ago.

the idea that it is a tropical disease and related to rise in temperatures is misleading. It may be true that rising temperatures will increase local anopheles populations, but within the EU, this could have been monitored, and controlled. Outside it, a completely different story.

And no, scaryteacher, I cannot predict if HM forces could prevent a civil war. That was the question of the thread. How long does it take exactly to transform from stable democracy to civil disintegration?? And is it likely? I am guessing it would take, say 20 years, I don't know if it is likely though.

" 55MargotLovedTom

Agree with 2boys - I'm more worried about WW3."
I think this is it

You are getting a lot of flack, OP. Sorry about that.

Haven't read the whole thread, but I do think we are in a fucked situation in the world right now.

Brexit (no-one can say what the future in UK and Ireland will bring, etc.) , Coup in Turkey, Islamic State latest in Nice..... especially that is really worrying... World wide terrorism...

WW3? Yea, we are there... And it's only going to get worse with climate change etc.

Lots of people prefer to hide their head in the sand though. As can be seen during the Brexit lies purporting to be the truth, without people doing their own research...

I'll run your idea that the EU keeps malaria at bay in Europe by my entomologist and malaria expert colleagues tomorrow. Will let you know.

According to this pmj.bmj.com/content/80/949/663.full malaria declined in the 1800s, so well before the EU was even dreamt of.

Whilst people travel, you can't prevent malaria, and frankly, the EU doesn't stop the mosquitoes crossing the channel, neither does it test for malaria when people return from Asia or Africa, and I assume it doesn't also check the migrants coming in, so I am unconvinced that the EU controls or stops malaria.

I think the civil war scenario is ridiculous in the extreme. We have been there, done that, and now have the supremacy of parliament as a result. What sides do you think would be in this civil war? With what would they be fighting? Where would they get the military hardware from for their armies?

Public Health England are involved in monitoring & managing malaria transmission risk.

The EU CDC relies on info they get from PHE/PHS/PHW etc.

scaryteacher, it declined due to marsh drainage, however was still killing in southern britain in the 1930s.

lljkk, are you aware of what "collaboration" involves?

I don't know what you think is preventing you from being at risk right here and now this evening. There are unlikely to be any anopheles in your room with your tonight. Why do you think that is? What mechanism exactly do you believe has protected you so far?

Oh well. The world is over populated anyway. Let's just blame Brexit for that. Might as well.

What makes you such an expert, Longlost,
Would you care to link to your Pubmed entry?

Maybe I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

I'm really unsure if you are serious or not OP

Just read the EU report into Malaria monitoring for 2014.
The EU get reports from EU countries and reports them with pretty graphs and tables - doesn't actual do anything or control anything.

We managed before the EU.

We will manage after.

My Gran is 93 she lived through WW11 and has a wealth of information on times gone by. If she can live through that and still be bright as a button at her age I'm sure I can manage the next few years.
Gran was born in 1923 and worked for the civil service during some of the war years in London. She says she was never scared as she wasn't going to let anyone grind her down.
I hope I'm like her.

I've got a mosquito net. Not because I'm terrified of malaria, I sleep nude and I dislike being bitten by anything small and winged. I also like the way it drapes over the bed.
There are lots of weird diseases and bugs on their way back, as well as all the new ones, but that's how life has always been. Running round in circles and shrieking doesn't actually help much, and isn't how this country tends to handle crisis situations.
Unless you are enjoying the prospect of apocalyptic drama?

There are unlikely to be any anopheles in your room with your tonight. Why do you think that is? What mechanism exactly do you believe has protected you so far That would be the bug screen on my window and the plug in anti mosquito doodah that is sold widely in Belgium, as there is a problem with them here, despite all the EU is doing (and in EU central as well!!!)

Longlost I bet you're a right fucking laugh at parties, remind me to invite you to my next one.

(Full of academics BTW - come, come, enjoy the fun).

caroldecker - again, you seem to show a total lack of understanding of the meaning of collaboration. We don't have an army of EU scientists running round "doing things". We have a collaboration of scientists and scientific bodies in each member state collaborating; informed, coordinated and funded by the EU. And directed by the EU when necessery.

Sooverthis- about deaths from disease and pollution, yes, I don't see how it is possible to avoid this, there will be deaths directly caused by the Brexit over the next generations, undoubtably. Some , such as those caused by pollution, may be difficult to attribute legally. There are thousands of deaths from pollution every year. This will rise, but an individual parent may not know, for example, if their individual child's death would or would not have happened without the brexit, even if we know that brexit has caused a 25 % rise in deaths. I suspect that individual diseases may be more easy to attribute. The brexit will slow down research into new antibiotics, people will die because these new antibiotics are held up, etc,

About war, no, I don't know if this is serious or not. That is what I am asking in my thread. I have herd it discussed.I have heard predictions of a break down in stability as the economic situation deteriorates over 20 or 30 years.

My question in this thread is what do others think. Again, as I said in the OP, there will be leave voters who's unthinking reflex response is just to ridicule, and they can do so to their hearts content. They are not of any particular interest to me.

Stable, prosperous countries decline and disintegrate. It happens. It has happened throughout history. We are not some amazing magic master race immune to all that - some people truly believe that we are!!

My question is, what are the chances of this happening here, now? It us ridiculous to say the chances are zero. That is clearly never the case. What is the liklihood, and when?

Civil war? I think to dismiss the suggestion out of hand is to fail to understand the depth of the rage and contempt felt by some remainers, who talk of feeling of violence right now. . Some would fight today, undoubtedly. I can't see that changing any time in the next decades ( maybe some leavers too, for all I know, I don't know anyone in RL who will publicly admit that is how they voted but clearly somebody must have done)

As many people have pointed out, 200 years ago, this may have been a fight, rather than a referendum.Many people would have been prepared to take up arms, if it had been a fight last month