Brexit war and deaths

[Longlost10]

How likely is it that Brexit will lead eventually to a civl war? I've heard a lot of discussion about how long it has been since we were this close to civil war in the Britain, and how low we could descend as the country slowly crumbles around us over the coming years and decades.

Anybody with any real insight and back ground knowledge that could give any reassurance on this issue?

(I have no interest at all in the ignorant knee jerk defensive lashing out of the leavers who have no comprehension of what they have done, and what is going to happen)

I can see that there will most likely be deaths, many deaths, that will be related to the loss of politically and economically coordinated support for scientific research, such as the research into new antibiotics which is absolutely vital to prevent the next generation being decimated by infectious disease. And anyone who thinks the uk can match the funding that the EU provided for this is not worth responding to, and for anyone who even thinks that matching the funding for isolated research groups would in any case be equivalent to giving the same funding for coordinated groups anyway, ... well it has been estimated that isolated groups in medicine would require something like 80x as much for the same results. And for environmental protection and pollution control, well in excess of this.

I would assume the number of Brexit related deaths in coming generations will be immeasurable.

But actual war??

OP - I think there's a very high chance there'll be a war in Europe in the next 20 years due to a breakdown / change in the EU which was triggered by brexit.

I don't however think there'll be civil war.

I do think the world is changing before our eyes and we are issuing in a new right wing era (worldwide) which won't be good for anyone.

And I am very sad about all of this.

Longost
The WHO has a greater impact in health in Europe.
The European CDC is very recent and it's not like the US CDC from the movies.
As for mosquitos, from a country that actually has loads and also used to have malaria, control is done locally mostly by farmers spraying or local authorities. The Ministry for Agriculture supervises that spraying is done properly but mostly to limit the environmental impact. A friend works on this.
We had a fairly recent vector-borne outbreak that was dealt with locally. Certainly no EU magic wand or montoring. My friends were called in because they had done some previous work on the mosquito population that nobody had bothered with previously.

As for malaria in Europe, the local mosquitos are poor vectors and the local parasite was Plasmodium vivax, which is quite tame compared with P. falciparum. From what I'm usually told, it would require an army of infected people moving into the worst mosquito areas for malaria to take hold again in those regions. It's never your random ill traveller, usually going to a city, that needs to be a concern.

I can get more accurate info, eventually. Not bothered to go and do a PubMed search right now.

I do think the UK should stay in the EU and I do think it will have an impact on the research done there and the nature of collaborations.

But it's quite different to think that the EU has a big impact or control on disease across Europe. It doesn't.

The brexit will slow down research into new antibiotics, people will die because these new antibiotics are held up,

There's a worldwide, also private driven, search for antibiotics. New ones are rare.
The UK leaving the EU won't significantly delay any antibiotic development.

In terms of international research, we do more with the US than EU in terms of paper citations:

The USA is usually the most frequent international partner for other countries, partly because its huge domestic research capacity creates so many opportunities. The USA has been and continues to be the UK’s most frequent partner country

Brexit opens up much more collaboration with the US, China, India, Africa etc and these countries have much more experience of tropical diseases and control than the EU.

I see Brexit as a opening of the UK to the world rather than trapped in an inward looking white western protectionist block.

Also not convinced why pollution deaths, or other deaths, should increase outside the EU rather than inside. The EU has made environmental laws over the last 40 years because the UK was unable to act unilaterally - we may have had a greater impact from the Green surge in the 80's outside the EU than inside. I am certain rules on animal welfare will improve outside the EU, for example, because we already have higher standards in many areas.

Longlost If people were to resort to violence and try to cause civil uprising because of Brexit, they would be stopped in short order. We are past that, we had a civil war in the 1600s, and if the divisions in the country in 1939 didn't lead to civil war, they won't now.

I have nothing but rage and contempt for those like you who want to forment civil uprising. Those who can see where the EU is headed and wanted out have done it peacefully, using a vote, and non violence. I voted leave, but wouldn't have resorted to violence to get my way if the vote had gone against leave. I would have carried on voting for those who would do their best political achieve the result I wanted.

You are fucking lucky to live in a peaceful country with a rule of law and a functioning democracy. To feel rage and contempt because people exercised their democratic right to vote in a secret ballot according to their wishes, and because it didn't go your way speaks volumes about you. I had to put up with 13 years of Labour for whom I have never, and will never vote, but I didn't think the world would end. I knew the electorate would see through them in the end, just as they have done with the EU.

Sooverthis- about deaths from disease and pollution, yes, I don't see how it is possible to avoid this, there will be deaths directly caused by the Brexit over the next generations, undoubtably

Pollution doesn't respect boundaries. We share Europe's air pollution, and they ours, whether or not the EU exists and whether or not we are in it.

OP I would suggest that you go spend some time in Syria, or Iraq- I think that might give you some perspective on what life on the edge is really like!

OP I would suggest that you go spend some time in Syria, or Iraq- I think that might give you some perspective on what life on the edge is really like!

Yes I am very well acquainted with these areas, and it is the similarities that I find most striking

scaryteacher, the rage and contempt is very real, widespread and will be long enduring. This is not in any dispute. We did leave in a peaceful, law abiding prosperous country, but can we take this for granted, now still? There is absolutely no comparison at all between 13 years of a government you disagree with, and taking an action that will destroy your country for ever. If you think the two are in any way anywhere close to the same order of magnitude, then you are another one who just doesn't understand what they have done.

There are people who would take up arms to protect the UK, My question was, who thinks this is likely/ unikely, to be the eventual outcome. But the answers have no validity, without understanding the fury, despair and hatred, or with insight into the real situation.

You seem very knowledgeable and well acquainted with just about everything OP. What exactly is your field/area of expertise/job?

How come you are such an expert on all things medical, scientific, environmental, political, nationally and internationally?

my field is scientific/environmental, and my knowledge of other countries comes from personal experience. OH is Iraqi, for a start.

Longlost I am sorry you believe that Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, to name but a few countries successfully outside the EU, are 'destroyed forever'. Perhaps they are countries you have no personal experience of, so are unaware of their existence outside the EU?

I don't see why we would not continue to collaborate on scientific research with EU even if we Brexit. The exit terms we agree will surely allow for that. Many non EU countries currently collaborate on EU scientific projects.

Unlikely.

There will be a global war in the not-too-distant future, but a civil war? No.

Here is a list of non-EU countries which can get EU funding:

Iceland
 Norway
 Albania
 Bosnia and Herzegovina
 the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
 Montenegro
 Serbia
 Turkey
 Israel
 Moldova
 Switzerland (partial association, see below)
 Faroe Islands
 Ukraine
 Tunisia
 Georgia
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, American Samoa, Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Bangladesh, Belarus, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana,
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad,
Chile, Colombia, Comoros, Congo (Democratic People’s Republic), Congo (Republic), Costa
Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El
Salvador, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala,
Guinea, Guinea-Buissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan,
Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kiribati, Korea (Democratic Republic), Kosovo*, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao,
Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Madagascar,
Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Micronesia,
Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal,
Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palau, Palestine, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay,
Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Serbia, Seychelles,
Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, St. Kitts and
Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Swaziland, Syrian Arab
Republic, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkey,
Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Uruguay, Venezuela,
Vietnam, , Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

The difference is that the UK will no longer form part of the mandatory number of EU countries in projects.
For the same budget, a different country may be chosen instead, such as the US..
But it's still eligible for partnerships in most projects.
In Marie Curie grants it will count as external.

OP, you REALLY think that the UK is similar to Iraq pre-civil war?

How are we going to have a civil war? Where will the arms come from?

I hate to break it to you OP, but unless you have any luck looking for a rusty cache of 80s guns the RA buried in Northern Ireland we really don't have much in the way of serviceable weapons to lead an uprising that couldn't be put down extremely easily. Unless you think that HM Forces are about to undergo a Damascene like conversion to the far left and reject Brexit and democracy for a left wing military junta?

Or perhaps you are suggesting a guerilla type campaign of bombings etc? I would suggest that would probably not gain much popular support and also not be very successful as our security services are very hot on stopping that sort of thing and normally do.

I would suggest that your best course of action would be visiting your GP for some anti-anxiety meds before Brexit blocks the supply.

OP, you REALLY think that the UK is similar to Iraq pre-civil war?

see, this is the complacency that worries me. Why do you think we are immune? As I have said several times, we are exactly the same, we are not superior in any way. There is an unthinking assumption by a certain percentage of the population that we are somehow better than people in other countries, and that it could never happen to us

Billsykesdog. Are you really basing your argument that our civil order is secure on the assumption that violent factions within the uk would not ever be able to arm themselves?

Caroldecker, those countries you mention have not just had their foundations kicked out from underneath them. Nor are they breaking off with their allies

I don't see why we would not continue to collaborate on scientific research with EU even if we Brexit. The exit terms we agree will surely allow for that

yes, the best hope is that the exit terms will be the same as the terms of staying, in other words, that there will be no Brexit at all, or just a pretend, imaginary one. Enough smoke and mirrors and the leavers might not notice that we don't in fact leave at all. In the meantime, what a colossal waste of the countries and individual resources, lives ruined, for nothing.

The only chance of civil war (and even then it's incredibly unlikely) in this country comes from not triggering A50 other than that I think you are struggling with severe anxiety and an over active imagination.