Cruz is out?

[CheerfulYank]

So Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee.

Is this real life? Is this my country?

What is happening? I know one person who supports Trump. ONE.

Hannity asked Newt Gingrich on Fox last night "why does Washington fear Trump? and Newt Gingrich said "because Trump is the end of their world".

I think that is what the voters want and is why they will vote for Trump. As one Trump backer said on Fox a few days ago "they want Washington bulldozed and to start all over again".

Hillay is the Establishment candidate, backed by the world "leaders", by half of our own so-called conservative party, by the EU, by Wall Street and the media. But at the end of the day, it is just the people that count.

'Ordinary people are voting in their hundreds of thousands for Bernie Sanders too, an avowedly Socialist candidate.'

Absolutely, because Bernie offers hope and change too. He is against the free trade deals just like Trump is. But what Clinton fears is that a lot of Bernie supporters may now switch to Trump.

'Donald Trump's new target: Bernie Sanders supporters'

edition.cnn.com/2016/04/29/politics/donald-trump-bernie-sanders/

Trump has already pivoted and said he is open to an increase in the minimum wage. If Trump now comes up with something on tuition fees, then the election is over and Trump will have won.

'How on earth can you sell Gingrich as an anti-establishment candidate? It is hard to think of an American politician who is simultaneously so establishment'

Gingrich is not Establishment, or at least he pretends he isn't. That is why Hannity loves him on Fox and always has him on and that is why he has been exceedingly friendly to anti-establishment Trump when Jeb and all the cronies can't stand and fear Trump.

However, we all know that most politicians are just shills and are "bought and paid for", so we can never be sure that their anti-establishmentarianism isn't just an act. Gingrich certainly talks a good common sense anti-establishment game on Fox, but I said that some very astute US political observers say that he cannot be trusted to really be on Trump's side, so I don't know if Gingrich is just another shill or if he will deliver the anti-establishment goods. From what he says on Fox, he sounds great.

'Newt Gingrich vs. the Republican establishment

With George W. Bush, the establishment actually passed its genes from one president to another.

Even Ronald Reagan, often cited as the man who broke the establishment, was not the type of uncontrolled meteor that Gingrich is
...
Romney says that Gingrich is part of the establishment. Technically, Romney is right. Gingrich was House speaker, after all, and then made millions trading off his name and his insider status.

But Gingrich is not part of the real Republican establishment.

He’s rude. He has weird ideas. And he’s unpredictable. One day he’s huddling in a backroom with Tom DeLay and the next he’s seated next to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), talking global warming.

He rattles the established order. He upsets people. In the 1990s, he removed from power poor old Republican Minority Leader Bob Michel, who every two years had bleated “Oh well” and handed the speaker’s gavel to the Democrat in charge.

This is what the conservative base likes. "

www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72122_Page2.html

Mistigri -- I suspect many Bernie votes were cast by young voters who were drawn into the ring by the hope of showing the GOP and particularly the Tea Party (and Cruz) but also Trump that the future belongs to the left. This is a sort of backhand way in which the current GOP spectacle may have made people think of voting.

The margins of victory of Trump over Cruz were small in some states. I suspect the mutual antagonism may have drawn voters to the polls. I suspect many votes in November will be votes against Clinton or against Trump and not positive endorsements of either of them. (Neither is 100% assured of being the candidate yet though it seems unthinkable that anyone else will challenge them). You have to wonder when a candidate appears from way outside politics if his supporters are people who spent election days at home muttering 'same scum, different bucket' at them all.

Glenn Beck's recent (insane) comments about America being smitten (smote? smited?) by God for supporting Trump over Cruz seemed very heartfelt to say the least, and I wonder if the religious right will find it all too horrible to contemplate in November.

Let's hope that Trump comes up with something to offer the millenials on student loans because then Establishment Hillary will be finished.

"Donald Trump on the Student Loan Crisis

Donald Trump has recently spoken about his position on the student loan crisis, and his opinion might surprise many. In an interview with thehill.com, Trump slammed the federal government for profiting on federal student loans. “That’s probably one of the only things the government shouldn’t make money off. I think it’s terrible that one of the only profit centers we have is student loans,” said Trump. As we have reported in the past, the Federal Student Loan programs turned a profit of $41.3 billion in 2013 while many borrowers are struggling to make their financial ends meet.
...
With the popularity of the Student Loan Forgiveness programs and enrollment into these programs skyrocketing, Trump could find it very hard to be vocal against these programs or face losing the student vote. Though Trump is a conservative, his position on Student Loans seems to be somewhat liberal "

www.studentdebtrelief.us/news/donald-trump-on-the-student-loan-crisis/

'Glenn Beck's recent (insane) comments about America being smitten (smote? smited?) by God for supporting Trump over Cruz seemed very heartfelt to say the least, and I wonder if the religious right will find it all too horrible to contemplate in November.'

There are all sorts of rumours about Glenn Beck. I have always thought he was a phoney, put up by the establishment. He is having to lay off lots of people as his organisation suffers particularly as he has gone against Trump and revealed himself for what he really is. There is no way back for him now.

Trump won the votes of the evangelicals in most of the states. Evangelicals know that most politicians are shills and as one pastor said "evangelicals are voting for someone who is not politically correct rather than someone who is religiously correct". They want the country fixed, jobs brought back and their religious freedom and free speech mainatined and Trump offers to do that for them and the rest of the "politicians" can't be trusted.

Trump mocked Cruz's purported religioisity with the line

"Lyin' Ted. Bible high, pits it down and then he lies".

Ronald Reagan was a buffoon.
Newt Gringrich is a scary old southern boy.
Agree a lot of Saunders supporters will go to Trump.

Jimmy Carter was once declared a maverick outsider, too.

Frank Luntz who advised the Bush administration to deny Climate Change, and advocates obfuscation & misinformation in news dissemination? Fox News? Newt Gringrich? Can't we find some credible sources instead?

All the candidates will change from June to November. They secured the core vote by June so then they will soften rhetoric to aim for undecided voters.

How does one leave NATO, anyway? How difficult is it?

'Fox News? Newt Gringrich? Can't we find some credible sources instead?'

You're a liberal, not a Republican. Fox News is the only Republican type news outlet, though most real Republicans (non establishment ones i.e. Trump supporters) think Fox is just another part of the establishment and anti Trump like the rest of them which is why Fox is losing viewers hand over fist.

The Republican base like Newt Gingrich, so that is why it is important to know what he says and what Fox says, because to some extent they are in tune with the Republican base who have chosen Trump against all the exhortations of the world "leaders" and the media and the Jeb Bush and the rest of them.

If you want to know how the election will play out, it is no use just reading the Guardian, you need to understand the Republican base, Trump supporters, Newt Gingrich and Fox.

'How does one leave NATO, anyway? How difficult is it?'

It is difficult and no one is going to do it. Charles de Gaulle did it. But what Trump decides will go and everyone else will have to do as they are told.

Bernie Sanders said "poor people don't vote" (when explaining why he didn't beat Hillary)
We also see in the UK that lower income voters of working age are much less likely to vote.

However, in the UK, a Trade Union study found that non-voters had very similar political preferences to voters. I wonder if this is also the case in the US.

The US has a very low voter turnout in General Elections, well below 60%
We don't know if Trump's voters are among those who don't normally vote.

Or if the 2 most unpopular candidates in US history - Clinton & Trump - will motivate or repel voters. Both have record UNfavourability ratings.
Women voters especially hate Trump - maybe that will defeat him

"Many 'lost' voters say they have found their candidate in Trump

About one in 10 Americans who plan to cast a vote this election will do so for the first time in years, if ever, and Trump holds a decided edge with them, according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos. (tmsnrt.rs/1SgeLvi)

Trump, the Republican front-runner, has made targeting “lost” voters such as Wade a focus of his campaign. His anti-immigrant rhetoric and protectionist trade proposals have helped him to fashion a message tailored to reach Americans alienated by the endless enmity between the political parties and who, because of declining economic prospects, may feel like neither party has done much for them.

Trump’s strategy is a gamble, given the lack of reliability of many of the voters with whom he is most popular.

In interviews, some of those lost voters insist they will show up, saying they are drawn to Trump’s outsider status and his willingness to upend the political system.

PAGING A PIRANHA

Tucson, Arizona, resident Renay Cunningham, 56, said she had never paid much attention to politics in the past. She plans to cast her first ever vote for Trump after hearing his proposed policies to curb illegal immigration, which include building a giant wall on the southern border and making Mexico pay for it.

“We need a piranha in there, and he’s definitely a piranha,” she said.

Trump and his operatives are confident they can do what few of his rivals for the Republican nomination have shown they can do — expand the party’s potential voter pool."

www.yahoo.com/news/many-lost-voters-found-candidate-trump-180551756.html?ref=gs

"Sanders, Trump, and the Rise of the Non-Voters

In the past three Presidential elections, about forty-five per cent of those eligible to vote chose not to.

As unpredictable as this Presidential campaign has been, its two most successful outsider candidates, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, have in this sense followed established patterns: they have run campaigns that seemed perfectly matched to the preferences of people who do not normally vote. Both Sanders and Trump have done little to distinguish themselves from their parties on social issues, but they have moved to their parties’ left on economic matters and suggested that they would be more skeptical of international entanglements. If you were targeting non-voters on the right, you would design a campaign that looked very much like Donald Trump’s. If you were targeting non-voters on the left, you would emphasize almost exactly the same issues as Bernie Sanders.

www.newyorker.com/news/benjamin-wallace-wells/sanders-trump-and-the-rise-of-the-non-voters

Without Bernie in the race and if Trump pivots towards Bernie on some issues while bashing Establishment Wall Street Goldman Sachs Clinton, Trump could clean up among non-voters.

Gingrich is not Establishment, or at least he pretends he isn't.

And he gets away with it by appealing to the politically ignorant, and those with fatally short memories. He is the epitome of a Washington insider - but I guess you can sell anything to a fool who is desperate to be parted with his money.

Bernie Sanders said "poor people don't vote" (when explaining why he didn't beat Hillary)

And yet low income groups have generally supported Hillary.

I like Bernie and his ideas, but I do think that his campaign comes out with some crap (and that his supporters are even worse). But I suppose that is the nature of a competitive primary.

Lindsey Graham is establishment and hates Trump and Trump said yesterday "Graham is beyond rehabilitation". Newt Gingrich has gone against Jeb Bush, Bush 41 and 43, Karl Rove, Romney and the phoney conservatives, RINOs and Rockefeller Republicans by near enough endorsing Trump and backing him on Fox for months now. The Establishment don't want that, they are frightened to death of Trump just like the world "leaders" are.

How is Graham establishment when Gingrich isn't? Graham is outside the GOP mainstream in some respects. In contrast, Gingrich is a career politician who sat in congress for 20 years and was speaker during the Clinton administration. He's the guy who fought to have Clinton impeached ffs! (At a time when Trump was buddy-buddy with the Clintons).

You cannot get more Washington or more establishment than Gingrich.

Although this is highly suspicious Establishment behaviour from Newt and sets off serious warning signals and alarms. What was he thinking? Did they get to him? Did they have something on him? Did they force him to do it against his will? I mean WTAF!

That is unforgiveable and Trump needs to heed the advice of the astute US political commenators who said that Newt is in the pocket of some forces that are not on Trump's side.

However, Newt did apologise for thsi outrageous Establishment behaviour, so he should be given the benefit of teh doubt to some extent (but by God it is hard to forgive that and nearly impossible to be honest).

"Gingrich on global warming ad with Pelosi: ‘The dumbest single thing I’ve done in years’

dailycaller.com/2011/11/08/gingrich-on-global-warming-ad-with-pelosi-the-dumbest-single-thing-ive-done-in-years/

'He's the guy who fought to have Clinton impeached ffs! '

That's not Establishment. The Establishment are all in it together like our lot, both sides united where we have so-called conservative Sirs who back Hillary over Trump. A rigged system of pals altogether sitting on sofas and saying "we must combat climate change". Maybe Newt had a bad day, but that was a stonker and he should be reminded of it at every opportunity and should be made to wear sackcloth throughout Lent for that. Outrageous Establishment behaviour. Trump will end all that!

"In 2008 former House Speaker Newt Gingrich appeared in a TV ad created by Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project with then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to urge action on anthropogenic climate change. Many conservatives were disappointed."

Disappointed doesn't cut it! That is RINO behaviour. If Trump was in charge, I feel he would have reprimanded him and told him, one more mistake like that and you're out on your ear without a pension. That is taking the p**s with bells on

Panelist Charles Krauthammer asked Gingrich if he was being held hostage when the ad was filmed. Gingrich responded that he just made a mistake.

Claig, I don't think you have looked at the numbers who voted for Cruz if you think evangelicals will turn out in droves to support Trump.

I think we have established at this point that Gingrich is a politician without a shred of integrity.

I also think that it is very clear despite all the noises on and offstage that Trump is a Republican in the same sense that a cuckoo chick is a mistlethrush. There is a lot of damage control going on in the GOP and its affiliated media outlets, but I do not think the enormous bitterness will go away. It is fueling Trump's support, which is as much about kicking the ass of the GOP as it is about deporting Mexicans, so Trump making friendly noises at the GOP would be like shooting himself in the foot. (Paul Ryan is actually doing Trump a favour by the posture he has adopted.)

Interesting discussion here

fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-paul-ryans-party-or-donald-trumps-party/

Some points from this

• only 83% of Republicans and those who lean Republican support Trump, vs 91% support for HC among Dems (and the Dems are a bigger party to start with).
• Trump will need the party machine to campaign effectively.
• There is already a third candidate (a libertarian, Gary Johnson) - could he gain votes among the most conservative and/ or evangelical voters?

mathanxiety, you are right about the evangelicals. I have just googled it and Trump is winning about a third of them, and a lot of the hardcore ones are against him and see him as representing Mammon etc. However, apart from Iowa, where Cruz pipped Trump and Trump accuses Cruz of cheating with the Ben Carson announcement etc, Trump beat Cruz across a lot of Southern states with evangelicals.

The reason appears to be that evangelicals tend to prefer strong leaders, messianic leader types, and althought Trump is not religious and is liberal in many ways, he is tough. What has happened is that evangelicals lost the culture war and the left have beaten them on everything, but tough Trump does offer them one potential victory and that is to overthrow the left's political correctness. Evangelicals have to be realistic, they can only hope for sall victories in the culture war, and ending political correctness is a great start. The purists won't countenance Trump but then they will get no victories over the left at all because Cruz would never get elected by the American public, whereas Trump stands a chance. Evangelicals are just like everyone else, they are mad as hell at the useless, "bought and paid for", lying , shill politicians in teh Republican party who have sold them out, despise them and trick them as they obey the elite donor class and ignore the people, and Trump's defiance of the entire Establishment appeals to evangelicals just as it does to the rest of the Republican base

"Evangelicals are not immune to the sense of betrayal by party elites that prevails at the grass roots.

Mr. Trump may not worship at the same church or share the theology of most evangelicals. But he is a voice and vehicle for the disenchantment they feel toward Washington, and their yearning for a strong leader to transform it. Republicans would be wise to figure out how to harness this force in a positive—and winning—direction before it runs them over. "

www.wsj.com/articles/misreading-the-trump-evangelicals-link-1457654169

"Trump's support, which is as much about kicking the ass of the GOP as it is about deporting Mexicans"

Yes, Trump is there to kick ass, the Republican base is mad as hell at their own useless sell-out politicians who constantly betray them , just as Newt Gingrich did by joining the Establishment in a kumbaya advert supporting the Establishment's climate change agenda. Trump will kick ass and tell it like it is which is why he is so popular in a revolutionary time of turning over the tables and knocking down the doors. Paul Ryan is just a hostage of the elite donor class who tell him what to do and Trump is their nemesis. Bring it on, take them down!

That WSJ article carefully uses the word "plurality" rather than "majority" when referring to evangelical support of Trump. I wonder if Claig even knows what the difference is.

Mathanxiety isn't saying that no evangelical voters will vote for Trump; plainly that's wrong. But if the evangelical vote is split - with some supporting Trump, some abstaining, and some voting for Johnson or writing in a candidate - then it will be very hard for him to win this election.

'There is already a third candidate (a libertarian, Gary Johnson) - could he gain votes among the most conservative and/ or evangelical voters?'

Gary Johnson used to be a Republican but switched to Libertarian, however, it is unlikely he can get big enough support.

The neocon wing of the Republican party, frightened to death of Trump and what he will do to some of them and how he will end their entire agenda, are desperately trying to find another third party candidate.

Bill Kristol is scratching around trying to find someone to take Trump on and stop him by running as a third party candidate, even possibly trying to stand instead of Gary Johnson on the Liberatarian ticket. However, Johnson has said they won't be able to dislodge him. Kristol has approached Romney, he has talked of a General etc but so far he has had no luck. They won't go away, because like the world "leaders", the neocons and establishment are terrified of Trump.

'then it will be very hard for him to win this election'

No because when it comes down to a final choice between Clinton and Trump, evangelicals will support Trump to end political correctness, protect their Second Amendment and ensure that Clinton can't change America forever by changing the makeup of the Supreme Court.

That's not what current polling shows though; that's wishful thinking.

Most polls seem to show that somewhere in the range of 20-30% of evangelical voters will consider abstaining or voting for a third candidate. That's a lot of voters.

In the last couple of elections, about 125-130 million votes have been cast of which broadly 20-25% were by the Chistian right/ white evangelicals (obviously depends on definitions). Let's say that there are 30 million white evangelical voters and 10 million of them stay at home. You cannot win an election like that. Obama's 2008 majority was less than 10 million.