is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

'they'll have to explain why previous Secretaries of State (including Republicans) were allowed to use private email.'

Absolutely. However, I am not sure they had the quantity of emails that Hillary had, but it is true that quite a few senior people did have private emails as well.

The former head of the CIA was on Fox about a month ago, he was appointed by Bill, I think, and he said something like he would expect the Russians to have hacked it.

Trump is one of the few politicians who is saying islam is a problem

And he is wrong, and the people who agree with him because he says that are wrong. Islamists are a problem, with the -ists suffix being used to indicate radical fundamentalism, just as much as (at least here in the US) Christianists are a problem. As a matter of fact, in the US since September 11, 2001 domestic terrorism attacks by Christianists, white supremacists, and anti-government radicals have killed far more than attacks by Islamist jihadis - and that's leaving out mass shootings committed by people who are simply terribly mentally ill like the shooting at Sandy Hook School in 2012.

My grandfather (of blessed memory and good thing too because this election year would have made him stroke right the hell out) was a staunch Republican who thought Ronald Reagan and Dwight Eisenhower walked on water and, while he had faith, never spoke a word of his faith being the one by which the country should have been run. He was born in 1920 and thus had his prejudices from childhood but after serving in the military with Black, Asian, Jewish and Hispanic men was able to let nearly all of them go. He would be crushed to see what the Republican party has come to today - it is the opposite of everything it stood for in his time.

I'm always so sad to hear or read of people being frightened of Muslims or Muslim-appearing people. We're a tiny, mostly-very-whitebread town in what is basically the essence of Middle America - surrounded by farms on all sides and on the Western edge of Amish country. Our university, though, has a sizable community of Arabian and Asian men and women of all faiths and yes, many are Muslim. When we have 'community clean-up' days, or school supply drives, or food drives, sometimes I think it should actually shame the white university and wider community here because (my husband working at the uni) I know pretty close to the exact number of Asian/Arabian grad students in town, and if you go by percentages, they are FAR more likely than the rest of the university community to contribute time, money or food - we're talking 75/80%.

I also feel bad when (I'm a grocery store chit-chatter, I can't help it) I make a comment to a hijabi lady, or a lady in a niqab, just to kill time while waiting for the checker and there's a fleeting glimpse of nervousness then relief that I'm not about to upbraid her over something or say something nasty. Unfortunately, being "Middle America" that seems to be a bug in the programming now that everyone thinks is a feature.

Regarding Donald Trump's seemingly congenital lack of truthfulness: It's not that he's a liar - liars know facts and conceal them for a defined reason. No, Donald Trump is through and through a stone bullshitter - this article makes an excellent case.

Yes, that is a good article, it makes a lot of good points, he is a bullshitter rather than a liar. To Trump, the truth is flexible, he is a pragmatist rather than a truthteller on some issues, however on other politically incorrect issues, he tells the truth.

OhYouBadBadKitten Hey, welcome to the lower left of the lower left quadrant! I was getting lonely .

Come on, people, there have to be more of us idealistic lefties out there!

OYBBK (hope you don't mind the abbreviation) I've noticed that as I get older I get more lefty libertarian as well. Speaking only for myself, I think the main reason is that I've shifted away from a "what kind of country do I want to live in during my lifetime?" viewpoint and toward a "what kind of country do I want my kids/grandkids to be living in?" attitude. Also, I think going to uni myself (which I didn't do til 2009 as a mature student) really opened my eyes to other cultures and how the US treats them, as well as how the developed world treats the developing world (in a word: exploitatively) and how humans as a group treat the earth (no wonder it keeps trying to throw us off with storms and volcanos and snow and drought and suchlike).

With politics, I don't think there is a distinction between bullshitting and lying, and I really don't think any politician should be allowed to get away with sanitising blatant lying by using terminology of this type. Trump is an out and out liar.

The Washington Post seems worried about an indictment:
"even the most loyal Clinton supporters should by now recognize the seriousness of her problems. The FBI does not assign 147 people to investigate something trivial, “allowed” or lacking national security implications"

Their Editorial says:
"voters deserve to know as soon as possible whether this was a lapse of judgment or something worse. They deserve to be told whether there is any reason to suspect criminal behavior"

The question of criminal charges MUST be settled before the election, so the FBI need to work 24/7.
Otherwise, voters would try to guess the likelihood and then judge what would happen if she were indicted after election. Obama could pardon her if it's before her Inauguration, but presumably she can't pardon herself ?

Proginoskes I'm another old gimmer rooting for the Bern.
I refuse to stay in a box though. I am elsewhere; I am Legion < sinister >

The latest info from former Trump advosor, Roger Stone.

According to him, Hillary will not be the next President. If the FBI recommends indictment, he thinks Obama will stop that but that Biden may then have to take her place. If she is not indicted, he thinks Trump will say so many things that she won't be able to make it.

He says that there is no way that Cruz will be the Republican nominee, not because he won't do what the globalists want, but because of his personality, they don't like him. He says the Republican elite are planning to steal it from Trump but that Trump hired Paul Manafort the other day, one of the best in the business and steps ahead of the Republican elite. He says Cruz must win Wisconsin to stand a chance of getting the required number of delegates. Trump can afford to lose it as long as he gets some delegates.

I much prefer it when people abbreviate my name to oybbk :)

its nice to find others with similar ideals!

Ive moved over more lefty libertarian I think because of the voluntary work I do, I am becoming more and more acutely aware of how people are just people whereever they are and whatever background they are from. We have different cultures, different ideals, different faiths but we are all one people.

Speaking of Roger Stone

www.cnn.com/2016/03/29/politics/amanda-carpenter-ted-cruz-allegations/index.html

Cruz accuses Trump, but most of the media sees it differently

"Ted Cruz ‘Affair’ Rumors Peddled by Marco Rubio’s Allies
...
The truth behind the rumor-mongering, however, is a little more complex. A half-dozen GOP operatives and media figures tell The Daily Beast that Cruz’s opponents have been pushing charges of adultery for at least six months now—and that allies of former GOP presidential hopeful Marco Rubio were involved in spreading the smears.

For months and months, anti-Cruz operatives have pitched a variety of #CruzSexScandal stories to a host of prominent national publications, according to Republican operatives and media figures. The New York Times, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, Politico, and ABC News—reporters at all those outlets heard some version of the Cruz-is-cheating story. None of them decided to run with rumors. Those publications’ representatives all declined to provide on-the-record comments when The Daily Beast reached out for this article."

www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/25/ted-cruz-affair-rumors-peddled-by-marco-rubio-s-allies.html

Roger Stone says why woud he agree to be interviewed on the record by the National Enquirer if he was the one that leaked it.

Stone dropped another bombshell today. He said that there is talk that the lawyer for the DC Madam is possibly going to release the list of the DC Madam's 800 names and he says that will impact the election.

'Former lawyer for the 'DC Madam' wants to release her black book containing details of more than 800 clients - and claims it could impact the Presidential election

The 'DC Madam's' former lawyer wants to release her black book of clients - and claims it could have an impact on the Presidential race.

Montgomery Blair Sibley represented Deborah Jeane Palfrey in 2008 when she was convicted of federal racketeering and various prostitution charges.

The scandal of her arrest rocked the nation's capital as some of the city's biggest power players, including father-of-four Senator David Vitter, were outed.

Palfrey hanged herself in 2008 before she was set to be sentenced for her crimes and left the book containing details of her 815 clients behind."

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3430414/Former-lawyer-DC-Madam-wants-release-black-book-containing-details-800-clients-claims-impact-election.html

The amazing thing about the Cruz affair rumour is that one of the 5 women is claimed to be Trump's spokeswoman, the brilliant non politically correct Katrina Pierson. She denies it, but the twists just get ever stranger.

Trump is 5 steps ahead of all of his opponents, he intends to win because it is so important because he wants to take America back from the globalists. I think that he will make it even though the entire world's Establishment and "bought and paid for" political class are bricking it and are all against him and praying that he can be stopped

he is a bullshitter rather than a liar. To Trump, the truth is flexible, he is a pragmatist rather than a truthteller on some issues, however on other politically incorrect issues, he tells the truth.

We've been through this, but I don't think you've answered it. Not properly.

If he's such a liar and bullshitter, how can you (or anyone) know when he's telling the truth about what he thinks or intends to do?

'We've been through this, but I don't think you've answered it. Not properly.

If he's such a liar and bullshitter, how can you (or anyone) know when he's telling the truth about what he thinks or intends to do?'

I have explained it before, it is something you don't appear to have or understand - gut feel. That is what his millions of supporters have.

Gut feeling is not a proper explanation. What makes you believe the king of bullshit?
Are you really that willing to get fooled? (even more than from normal politicians?)

Okay, so what's your "gut feeling" on Trump saying that women should be punished for having abortions ? Regardless of whether you think he would actually go through with it, how would you rationalize supporting someone who would say such a thing? (Notice he doesn't think the women's PARTNERS who helped produce the pregnancy that was aborted should face any punishment at all.)

Proginoskes , he is not saying what you selectively quoted. He says if the law is broken. But it won't happen under him because he won't make that law. He has been liberal on abortion, far more so than Cruz or Rubio. Trump has to say certain things in order to win the Republican nomination, but everybdy knows that he doesn't mean them. That is gut feel. People trust Trump, they know he is playing a game with the Republican nomination in order to win and become President because his ultimate aim is to take America back from the globalists.

Forgive e for not being able to post for the next 40 minutes because I am watching Channel 4's Matt Frei do his second documentary on Trump - "President Trump. Can he really win?" I want to see if this one is as biased as the last one and if the same level of panic among Oxbridge intelligentsia still exists.

Matt Frei's documentary was a little less biased than his previous one where he was having fun because he thought Trump did not stand much of a chance. This time there was still the panic but a little more serious appraisal because he now knows that it is looking ever more likely that Trump will make it.

The show ended with the quote that sums up the fear of the world's "bought and paid for" political class, their think tanks and spin doctors

"whether he is elected or not, Donald Trump makes you wonder whether this country, this democracy, in this year has changed beyond recognition"

Go Trump! "Make America Great Again". Take it back off the globalists!

claig, directly from my link which I certainly did not misquote:

Matthews then pressed Trump on whether he believes there should be punishment for abortion if it were illegal.

“There has to be some form of punishment,” Trump said.
“For the woman?” Matthews asked.
“Yeah,” Trump said, nodding.

'if it were illegal'

That is the same as all his positions on the law, on illegal immigration as opposed to legal immigration. He is saying that if there is a law then it has to be followed or there will be some form of penalty.

However, Trump will be flexible on the law just as he is over his campaign manager who has been charged with a battery misdemeanour for grabbing someonewhich is against Florida law and where Trump says "are we going to ruin someone's life for that?"

Corbyn beginning to talk about policies that follow Trump policies on tariffs and protectionism on Chinese steel and ending the green taxes on steel plants that have pushed up energy prices in the UK which makes UK steel plants uneconomic compared to China and even the rest of Europe.

This is only the beginning of what will happen worldwide if Trump wins in America. The whole world will change and the globalists will be trounced everywhere.

Trump has already rolled back his statement on the hypothetical case if abortion were banned. Now he says in that case, doctors will be punished, not women.

"Trump Reverses on Abortion Ban, Saying Doctors Would Be Punished

Facing fierce criticism, the Republican front-runner issued two clarifications on Wednesday afternoon."

www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-30/trump-says-abortion-ban-should-carry-punishment-for-women

Trump does this all the time because it is part of the article you quoted on Trump "bullshitting". Trump hasn't thought through hardly any of his policies so when asked something he wings it and uses bullshit to try and get through it, then he completely reverses it later if he is criticised. He tries to please everyone which is why he tries to keep everything vague. But his immediate goal is to win the Republican nomination, so he has to try and appeal to Republicans first.

As the Matt Frei documentary said, if he wins the Republican nomination, we could well see Trump transform into an entirely different candidate as he tries to appeal to the centre, but as a Republican newshost said, he has to be careful or he will lose the right wing vote if he goes too far to the centre.

Is there no level of mendaciousness and, frankly, outright evil that you will refuse to accept from Trump, claig? Does the end always justify the means?