is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

Thanks guys. It's why I haven't posted too much since Monday. Poor baby has really struggled with Bf and I haven't slept for more than 45mins at a clip since Monday.

Local hospital has really changed. When I had DD I was able to put her in the nursery and get a bit more sleep than 45mins. I know care is different in the UK but the big difference is that here maternity leave is so much shorter at 6 weeks of vaginal birth and 8 weeks if CS. You need post care to have things like a nursery.

I also have a huge issue with NJ passing legislation requiring hospitals in the state to be breastfeeding friendly. If a mother wants to FF her child she should be able to do so with support from the staff. I was furious that a doctor had to sign off on the baby getting formula for top up purposes meaning we waited and waited. After 2 feeds had gone by DH went to target and got ready mixed stuff. Getting a nipple shield took way too long too and then it was too small. If you are pushing Bf then have the proper support in place.

Congratulations, Supermum!

Congratulations supermum!!

You must be exhausted!

I'm no Clinton fan, but this is depressing about social behaviour:Voters Gender Bias
Pollsters gave voters a "gender prime" question - maybe a similar effect to what Trump / Cruz attack ads might do in a contest against her - and compared before / after.
The question caused men to switch to Trump in greater numbers than women switching to Clinton.

However, even after the prime question, Clinton still beat Trump and he might yet make more gaffes that will crash his vote.

It's not surprising that more and more people will realise that he's a buffoon without substance. And that all he does is capitalise on hate. Including in relation to other candidates. A campaign based on put downs of other candidates can't go very far. Nor one based on vague ideas and confusing language. He should have learnt from Palin, but it seems not.
He will have to find some more solid ground and more concrete and realistic policies. Or voters will realise that he is just another liar like all the other politicians he criticises. In fact, worse.

Yes this election, the chance of a demagogue for President is much reduced because he's a chaotic buffoon.
Lucky US, lucky world.

The time to panic is if an American Putin were to arise for the next election - say a senior, competent officer from the intelligence / military community that US voters hold in such high esteem.
Many voters seem desperate for a saviour and are not engaging their brains.

Trump is not out yet. DC Madam list appears to be online already. Mainstream media nor reporting on it, could end their dreams. But it is on alternative and social media already.

Trump has hired an excellent aide to Sneator Jeff Sessions, called Stephen Miller, who is one of his main spokespeople now, Press Secretary, i think. He is not politically correct and tells it like it is, just like Trump. At yesterday's rally, he mentioned the DC Madam. It will break soon, the mainstream media won't be able to protect their mates.

Stephen Miller is a senior policy adviser. He is very strong on policy and is a pretty good speaker (very combative, takes the liars and spinners on) but not as good as Trump yet. But it shows that Trump is not lying down, he is going full steam ahead to take the puppets down.

"Stephen Miller, a trusted aide to Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, will join Donald Trump’s presidential campaign on Wednesday, serving as a senior policy adviser to the Republican front-runner."

www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/01/25/top-sessions-aide-joins-trump-campaign/

I have to agree with you Choc.

But both cases are dangerous. For different reasons, but still both dangerous.
Were it not for Trump we'd probably be discussing Cruz more in depth and just as appalled, for example. :)

Trump's language is openly horrid, but causes many folk to overlook the deeply nasty plans expressed by Cruz - who is the more dangerous one, imo:
Further cutting welfare, making abortion even more difficult for the poor, patrolling where US Muslims live, more ME wars, belligerance against Putin, Iran....

I always worry more about evil people who may be quietly competent in evil, than about noisy buffoons.

Btw, many people quote the horror at Trump expressed by the GOP mainstream leadership - but their horror is because they think he will either lose badly, or get elected and switch back to some of the progressive views he held earlier. He has no genuine views, just total narcissism

Not that Trump would achieve anything progressive, just that he isn't interested in pushing many conservative policies that the GOP hold dear.

More like he'd inadvertently make a big mistake. Or several. Particularly on foreign policy.

But his inflamatory rethoric is worrying, as it could easily lead to more unrest and social divisiveness.

I totally agree that Cruz is awful and has run a dirty campaign. Kasich has stayed in the running for the sole reason of being neither Trump or Cruz.

I honestly don't think a term of Trump would be that bad. There are so many checks and balances that he couldn't do much of anything as he doesn't have the experience of how Washington works. Hilary Clinton does have the experience to bring in changes and a term of her, let alone two, could really set the country back. She is too gung ho for war for my liking. The one thing America doesn't need is another war as even if we 'win' we lose financially.

I enjoyed Politico's fanciful Trump's First Hundred Days
Gems like "Best-case scenario: Twitter account is suspended for duration of the presidency"

and an earlier article on Claig's favourite Stump for Trump Sisters
I find their support for him quite baffling

Love the Stump for Trump sisters. They are the best.

'I find their support for him quite baffling '

"Listen! Here's the deal. Donald Trump is a job creator, a motivator, a negotiator. He's a bowler, a shot-caller, he's for America and the American people. He's a uniter, not a divider, he's a businessman, he's gonna get things done."

If you look at it objectively, you see that Hillary and the left wing agitators who disrupt Trump rallies (when Trump fans never disrupt Hillary or Bernie rallies) are the dividers who use identity politics to try and separate minorities when in reality everyone is an American with the same aspirations for prosperity, jobs and a better life. All the left have got is their usual trick of calling their opponents bigots but it won't work in America.

Good article on Trump and abortion in the Washington Post here.

And could Time be right about his downfall? Or is this just a blip?

I'm not sure how he's able to turn it all around, without admitting that he's been a jerk and come out with some sensible and well thought out policies and, crucially, a less hate filled speech. Women, immigrants, Muslims and the Chinese are not the source of all evil.

Regarding Hillary, I agree that it's not good that she is a hawk, but, as far as I know, so are all (or most) Republicans and possibly more.
Bernie could possibly be less aggressive and it would be good to see the US turn more left than it has been for the last couple of decades.

Yesterday, I watched him having an odd position on health care. He basically would remove state independence on it, as he (as employer) wanted access to cheaper deals from other states for his NY businesses.
But, it's also crucial that his positions are very much those of an employer. It's amazing that his voters seem to forget that.

Interesting New York Magazine article. Trump , "one of the greatest political savants of the modern era", may have something on Fox News.

"Operation Trump

Inside the most unorthodox campaign in political history.
...
Trump’s campaign employs a core team of about a dozen people; his campaign lists 94 people on the payroll nationwide, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filing (Hillary Clinton has 765). Trump has no pollsters, media coaches, or speechwriters. He ­focus-groups nothing. He buys few ads, and when he does, he likes to write them himself. He also writes his own tweets, his main vehicle for communicating with his supporters. And it was his idea to adopt Ronald Reagan’s slogan “Make America Great Again!”

“I’m the strategist,” Trump told me. Which would make him, no matter what your feelings about his beliefs or his qualifications to govern a country, one of the greatest political savants of the modern era.
...
I was well aware that Trump runs a bare-bones operation, but college-newspaper offices have more robust infrastructure than his national campaign headquarters—to say nothing of Hillary Clinton’s 80,000-square-foot headquarters in Brooklyn Heights. As I tried to square all this in my mind, Hope Hicks strode over in five-inch heels. “He’s ready for you.” We took the elevator to the 26th floor. “It’s been so crazy,” she said. “I haven’t really been home since Thanksgiving.”
...
I asked him about the lines that have become his signature. In most other campaigns there are speechwriters (and pollsters) for this. But there is clearly no team of comedy writers squirreled away downstairs.

“I’m the writer,” Trump said. “Let me start with Little Marco. He just looked like Little Marco to me. And it’s not Little. It’s Liddle. L-I-D-D-L-E. And it’s not L-Y-I-N-G Ted Cruz. It’s L-Y-I-N apostrophe. Ted’s a liar, so that was easy.”
...
It was also thanks to some information he had gathered that Trump was able to do something that no other Republican has done before: take on Fox News. An odd bit of coincidence had given him a card to play against Fox founder Roger Ailes. In 2014, I published a biography of Ailes, which upset the famously paranoid executive. Several months before it landed in stores, Ailes fired his longtime PR adviser Brian Lewis, accusing him of being a source. During Lewis’s severance negotiations, Lewis hired Judd Burstein, a powerhouse litigator, and claimed he had “bombs” that would destroy Ailes and Fox News. That’s when Trump got involved.

“When Roger was having problems, he didn’t call 97 people, he called me,” Trump said. Burstein, it turned out, had worked for Trump briefly in the ’90s, and Ailes asked Trump to mediate. Trump ran the negotiations out of his office at Trump Tower. “Roger had lawyers, very expensive lawyers, and they couldn’t do anything. I solved the problem.” Fox paid Lewis millions to go away quietly, and Trump, I’m told, learned everything Lewis had planned to leak. If Ailes ever truly went to war against Trump, Trump would have the arsenal to launch a retaliatory strike."

nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/inside-the-donald-trump-presidential-campaign.html

What is significant about that article is the bits you've left out, claig. For instance:

"Trump deflected most questions about policy (“I have policy on my website”), strategy (“I think I’ll win before the convention”), and controversies around his campaign (“It’s totally blown out by the press. There’s very little violence”). He said he would choose a politician as his running mate — “I don’t want to have two people outside of politics” — but he wouldn’t name any possibilities."

"In this conversation, The Apprentice was the subject that had him most animated."

"he made what appears to be a deliberate decision to be provocative, even outrageous"

"And so, Trump openly stoked racial tensions and appealed to the latent misogyny of a base"

"But if speed is the advantage of the small campaign, insularity is its inherent disadvantage. By all accounts, Trump doesn’t seek much counsel beyond his staff and children. There is, of course, his circle of declared foreign-policy advisers whom no one had heard of, but it’s unclear how much he talks to those he cites publicly. Carl Icahn told me that Trump didn’t call him before he invoked his name as a potential Cabinet member. “I saw one day he was on TV talking about making Carl Icahn secretary of the Treasury,” Icahn said. “I’m certainly not going to be Treasury secretary.”"

"Lewandowski’s criminal charge is just the latest self-inflicted setback for the campaign. There was also the canceled Chicago rally that sparked a near riot; Trump’s inability to blunt the criticism over Trump University; and his woefully unprepared performances recently before the Washington Post and New York Times."

"What about his intimation that there will be riots in the streets if he loses on a second ballot? “You will have a lot of very unhappy people,” he said coyly. The threat is thinly veiled given the violence associated with his campaign, especially after he told NBC he’d consider paying the legal fees of a white supporter who punched a black protester in the face."

"If Trump makes it to the nomination, he will face other challenges for which he seems right now completely unprepared"

"Now that his campaign seems more vulnerable, I can’t help but wonder if sometimes he wishes he could go back to a reality show where he can’t be fired."

Yes, I left those out because some are obvious, and some, I think, are wrong. I don't think the journalist really understands Trump if he thinks he wants to go back to the Apprentice.

Trump has never had so much fun in his life as running to be President, and he intends to win it. The media all think Trump is down and out; they haven't got a clue.

Trump controls the media, he plays with them, he plays outside the rules, which is why policy etc is secondary to the Trump show. He will beat all the wonks by outsmarting them and not playing by their rules.

Trump's strategy seems to be working really well.

Looking at national poll trends, he's the only Republican not gaining on Clinton.
elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster#2016-general-election

He has been surpassed in Wisconsin and lost a big chunk in New York (we'll see if it continues, or he recovers).

Yes, I left those out because some are obvious, and some, I think, are wrong

No, you left them out because they were inconvenient. You can't decide that a writer is the oracle for some purposes but not others.

I'm also mistified as to how
"“I’m the writer,” Trump said. “Let me start with Little Marco. He just looked like Little Marco to me. And it’s not Little. It’s Liddle. L-I-D-D-L-E. And it’s not L-Y-I-N-G Ted Cruz. It’s L-Y-I-N apostrophe. Ted’s a liar, so that was easy.”"

puts Trump in any good light.