is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

' we need to move away from the false smiles and the spin. I don't think people like trump is an answer long term but I think he will fill the gap in the interim period.'

Absolutely. It is the end of the Oxbridge spinners and the political correctness and spin and complacent deceit that serves the elites and screws the people. Yes, I think Trump is a short-term destroyer of the Establishment in order to create a new Social Contract and a better system.

But what Trump represents is such a huge shift that the Establishment is fighting back with absolutely everything they can muster because if they lose, it is the end of their world and their plans and perks. Trump will tear up their free trade deals like TTIP and will bring jobs back to national sovereign states, he will end globalism and return power to the people in national sovereign governments and of course the EU may not be able to survive that, he has said "NATO is obsolete" which will mean an entirely new world order where countries make peace in deals that suit all their interests rather than having opposing camps.

It is going to be a whole new world. Trump has only "kicked down the doors" and "broken the furniture" as Newt Gingrich said, but after him there will have to be a new Social Contract and way of running society that brings real democracy, enagagement, liberty and prosperity to the people. The elites won't like it, the wonks will be out of a job, but it will be a better future for ordinary people.

'a few bigwigs are sufficiently intelligent / nervous to advocate change for self-preservation'

Yes, and that plutocrat advocates a left wing type solution. The battle between Trump and Bernie will be the battle of what comes next across the whole world. I think the future will be Trumpism - one that is not ideological, one that is pragmatic and where Trump is both liberal and common sense conservative. I think Trump will win because his business and trade solutions will actually work and bring jobs back to people and I don't think that Bernie's solutions are pragmatic and practical and that they won't work.

I don't think that Bernie is strong enough to defeat the Establishment, just like useless, weak Corbyn isn't either. But Trump will do it and that is why they fear him and that is why Oxbridge Matt Frei has already made two documentaries about Trump and will probably make more as the panic among the elite increases.

I don't see many 1 hour documenatries about Bernie because they don't really fear him as they know he is no real threat to the system.

This Salon article barack Obama - the Oligarch's President is from 2010, but is a good analysis of how and why the Democrats have chickened out challenging what some call the “quiet coup:” the spectacular rise of the financial industry and the wealthy over the last 30 years or so.
The "establishment" Democrats and Republicand are reduced to ramping up & emotionalising issues that don't affect the oligarchs.

Trump is such a showman that he attracts all the documentaries this election round.

I find Sanders far more interesting, because he is the first self-declared "socialist" to have a chance at being President. I think he genuinely would bring change, because he has aims & principles, plus the political experience to negotiate and push them through.
I wish we had a documentary on him and his policies. Unfortunately shock & horror are what brings the TV ratings.

Nate Silver thinks First Ballot or Bust for Trump and that Trump's chance of gaining the nomination has slipped recently.
His problem appears to be that - not being a professional politician - he has only recently realised he needs an organisation to secure his delegates. They are not robots and can leave him after the first ballot, which many might do, given the hatred the professionals feel towards him.
He might squeeze in by a whisker if he is only a few short, since he could probably swing a few of the available uncommitted delegates.

A very interesting, very profound pyschological analysis of what is going on at Trump rallies and how Trump gains such popularity. It has the usual over the top Hitler comparisons and suggests that it is manufactured in a Machiavellian way which is incorrect and of course Bernie does the same with his jibes at Wall Street and the 1% and these things work because they are true.

What it comes down to is you can't fool all the people all the time, Trump is only popular because the people want him to be because he reflects what they think and they think he is "on their side".

Trump is great with crowds because the crowd wants him to be, but with individual questions in town halls, he is very weak because he is a bullshitter who doesn't know what he is talking about, but even then the Trump supporters forgive him and make excuses for him because they so want him to win because he is the only one who is "on their side".

"Inside the Trump machine: the bizarre psychology of America’s newest political movement
...
The conversation that takes place at Trump rallies is far more fundamental than anything encapsulated in a party platform. The urge that Trump is finally giving voice, authority and legitimacy to is redefining America’s vision of itself
...
Trump’s opponents might be offended by the very fact of this conversation.
...
But they ignore Trump’s supporters at their peril.

What I learned in Ohio is that there is indeed a movement, as Trump so often tells the crowd—and he is just its messenger. His supporters are drawing moral authority not just from the canary-haired billionaire on the dais, but from each other, from the tens of thousands of kind, reasonable, likeminded people with whom they shared gum, backaches and the brief but ecstatic experience of becoming the single-mouthed crowd-creature at Trump rallies."

qz.com/645345/inside-the-trump-machine-the-bizarre-psychology-of-americas-newest-political-movement/

'Nate Silver thinks First Ballot or Bust for Trump and that Trump's chance of gaining the nomination has slipped recently.'

Yes, he has to try to reach the 1237 delegates, but the Establishment are using all the tricks they can to stop him. He may not make it, they may stop him. He has had a bad week due to the ill thought-out bullshitting mistakes and Wisconsin is looking like a Cruz victory. Even with that, Trump can still make it as New York will probably go to him. It may all depend on California right near the end.

Trump fans are holding their breath and keeping their fingers crossed. They have seen Trump defy reality and beat all the pundits and professionals, they know how hard it is for the Establishment to stump the Trump!

Urgent broadcast from the Stump for Trump sisters, who are riled up as usual, to the voters of Wisconsin "if you vote for Cruz, we will lose".

Elites across the world praying that Cruz will win (even though they can't stand him), good people everywhere praying for Trump.

The Stump for Trump sisters emergency broadcast might just swing it.

Interesting link Choc, and not surprising.

I also agree regarding Sanders. He would seem to be the one with with greatest chances for the Democrats but he's not likely to win the nomination. I always like an outsider and an idealist. However, experience tells me that at best he'd try to improve things, but major change is almost impossible. Not without revolution. But most people don't like revolution. It leads to job instability and unsafety. Things would need to be very bad indeed, but I don't think they are for most, as the economy recovers. If slowly.
Unless there was a new crisis.

I find Sanders far more interesting, because he is the first self-declared "socialist" to have a chance at being President. I think he genuinely would bring change, because he has aims & principles, plus the political experience to negotiate and push them through.

As a Sanders fan, I think you are wrong on both counts. He's not a socialist (in Europe he'd be a social democrat, I think) and unfortunately in office, aims and principles are irrelevant of you have a hostile congress and senate, and a legal system which has explicitly favoured corporate interests in recent years.

US politics won't change until there is a fundamental change in how it is financed. Sanders has a chance of doing this - because he is genuinely not supported by lobby groups - but I don't think it is a very big one.

For anyone hoping Trump candidacy was a prank:

I don't expect Sanders to be able to revolutionarise the country, but I'd expect him to make some real changes that would help the bottom 90%.
The reason is that he genuinely wants to change, whereas Wall St - hence the Clintons - are happy with the current economic situation and with constant foreign wars. Even Obama doesn't care deeply enough to risk offending the uber-wealthy and the corporate donors.

If a significant section of progressive voters want change and are not offered it by their own party, then some will stay home and some will register a protest vote for the Greens.
There is even a small % who've said they'll vote for Trump, apparently their equivalent of rolling a hand grenade across the floor.
Doesn't matter as long as Trump is well behind even Clinton, but we've all wildly understimated him before - on reflection, I think he's an irrelevance, it's just that we've underestimated how angry voters are with professional politicians.

Trump should have been a joke, that fizzled out when he got under 1%
He can only get votes in a seriously disfunctional & angry country

Small steps. Obama did start something off.
If Bernie got in, maybe it would be possible to continue. Should the House allow it. That is one thing that keeps paralysing change. Government effectively not having legislative majority. It doesn't happen in European countries. Governments work with a parliamentary majority or with a majority support.

A balanced Trump/Sanders analysis:

and why Trump is the ideal GOP candidate:

Just because it's Saturday

"But most people don't like revolution. It leads to job instability and unsafety."

Love the understatement there Lweji

Agree the system in US seems v paralysing. On the other hand, that keeps me calm when I think of Trump in there.

Think Trump may have topped out, he's had a stellar few days

Would love to see more coverage of sanders on msm here. Though in fairness rte (Ireland) barely mention trump never mind sanders.

I've just come home with the baby. Five days in hospital and it's shocking how much has changed since having DD in 2011. Cost for DD was $500 copay. Cost for DD2 this week was $4600. For an average family around here who is earning $150k household income that is unaffordable. Also my care was significantly less than with DD. They are trying to close the nursery. I needed a prescription from the pediatrician to get formula for DD as her weight dropped. It's bloody food. DH went to target and came back with ready made stuff.

Quite frankly trump has gained traction here because he is the only candidate speaking about the issues the middle class face. We might only just be in the middle class but the system right now is killing opportunities for middle class Americans.

Hey, have you just had a baby, supermum ?

He may be talking about the issues, but the solutions he proposes are impractical, impossible, nasty or too vague to be believable that he'd actually be able to improve anything.
Things have been hard for many people outside the US, and in large part by a financial crisis caused by the lack of financial regulation that the Republican party allowed.
I don't see any indications that Trump could improve things for americans in poverty, or even the middle class. Certainly not from the gibberish he comes out with.

And congratulations on the baby? :)

A baby!!! >immediately distracted<

Congratulations on the baby, Want2bSupermum.

You have !
Congratulations Supermum

Congratulations on DD supermum