is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

Bernie Sanders and Corbyn are different from the rest, and so is Trump.

What is the reason?

Just because people you don't like are worried, it doesn't mean that the person they are worried about is your friend.
The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend. (from the politicalcompass test.)

If you were approached by a con man, who you knew was a con man, you had caught him in several lies, he had conned most of your friends, every time anyone questioned him about details of what he proposed he made up a new explanation, or a new thing, he claimed outrageous things that you didn't agree with (e.g. investing in selling guns to ISIS), but most of your neighbours had decided to trust him and invest with him. Would you trust him and invest with him?

"Transatlantic political twins? Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn defy centrist wisdom

Yet Donald Trump, 69, and Jeremy Corbyn, 66, have more in common than meets the eye. Straight-talking populist insurgents, both are tapping into frustration on either side of the Atlantic with the prevailing orthodoxy of bland centrist politics.

Blending polarising ideas with what admirers call refreshing authenticity, Trump and Corbyn have emerged improbably on opposite sides of the political spectrum and ocean as potential party leaders.

"Both of them are populists in the sense that they believe they are tribunes of the people who they contend have been sold down the river by the elite for too long," said Professor Tim Bale, one of Britain's leading political analysts."

economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/transatlantic-political-twins-donald-trump-and-jeremy-corbyn-defy-centrist-wisdom/articleshow/48387753.cms

We have seen that Corbyn is useless because he is weak. He can't even defeat the Establishment stooges in his own party even though his members gave him a huge majority. So Corbyn cannot change anything.

But the reason that Trump is so important is that Trump will change everything and if they are unable to stop Trump, then they will be unable to stop Corbyn because a Trump world will change the entire world and even Corbyn might then get a look in.

'What is the reason?'

Loss of faith in the political class. They have failed. Just about everyone who wasn't asleep for the past 20 years now knows that they are all "puppets" as Trump so rightly says.

'If you were approached by a con man, who you knew was a con man, you had caught him in several lies, he had conned most of your friends, every time anyone questioned him about details of what he proposed he made up a new explanation'

Tony Blair is hstory. We are in a new world now.

I strongly disagree that Trump believes he is a tribune of the people. He just says he is.

Defiance of centrist politics has been a trend for the past few years. Politics are becoming polarised. Certainly in Europe, and it's not surprising that in the US too.

People still seem to vote for centrist parties (in most cases) but they are having to contend more and more with other more polarised political forces.

Greece ended up with a radical left government.
Spain hasn't been able to form a majority government because both centrist (left and right) parties have lost votes and have failed to create a coalition.
In Portugal, to form a government with a majority in parliament, the socialist (well, centre left) party has had to make an agreement with the communist party and an extreme left party that rose to be 3rd strongest political force, even though the centre right party had the most votes.
Polls for France have the socialist party going to a second round against the far right.

You may like to read this comparison with Trump too:
What Hugo Chávez and Donald Trump have in common
Chavez was a disaster for Venezuela. Particularly with his cult of personality and isolationism politics.

If you were approached by a con man, who you knew was a con man, you had caught him in several lies, he had conned most of your friends, every time anyone questioned him about details of what he proposed he made up a new explanation, or a new thing, he claimed outrageous things that you didn't agree with (e.g. investing in selling guns to ISIS), but most of your neighbours had decided to trust him and invest with him. Would you trust him and invest with him?

You haven't answered the question.

Would you trust him and invest with that person?

Yes, it has been happening all over Europe but no one expected it to happen in America. Everyone thought that America was controlled since it is the leader of teh free world and capitalism and no one thought that Wall Stret and the bankers could ever really be challenged. But amazingly enough it has happened in America and is therefore much, much more significant than in Europe which is why Davos are alarmed and davostated by Trump. They can control the EU but they can't control America and they fear that their whole game will be up if Trump makes it.

Thanks, I will read the Chavez article later. I don't know too much about Chavez but I don't believe everything the Establishment media say about him.

'You haven't answered the question. '

No, I would not trust anyone who invested "in selling guns to Isis" or the mercenary Jihadis in Syria. Trump is the exact opposite of that, he says he "will knock the hell out of Isis". That is one of the things I like about him.

That was not the question, and you know it.

So, would you trust a con man, knowing he was a con man, even though your neighbours went with him?

I don't know too much about Chavez but I don't believe everything the Establishment media say about him.

Well, I've been to Venezuela. I know people in Venezuela.
And the guy has been dead for the past 3 years too.
Worth reading about him and what he did to Venezuela, though.

Trump is a nightmare as the subtlety of BS is lost among the entrenched spin etc.

America is a strange country, they believe they are a strong Christian country but they tolerate school massacres every year practically as the Constitution is sacrosanct, they strangely are raging against Obama-care (feeding the 5000 by redistribution completely lost on them). People love all the illuminati type stuff, you have things like the Owl society/Bohemium Grove etc which all feeds the 'its all fixed establishment' line.

Look at how corbyn jumped from back bench obscurity, people want change from the system.

So its no surprise to me that trump has got where he has by tapping into the conservative psyche.

'So, would you trust a con man, knowing he was a con man, even though your neighbours went with him?'

It depends what the alternative was. If it was Blair or Clinton, I would join my neighbours in taking a chance on the con man. With Blair and Clinton you know exactly what you will get, with the con man there is hope that he might con the Establishment and Davos (who are davostated) and not the people.

there is hope that he might con the Establishment and Davos (who are davostated) and not the people.

So, you'd believe that that only time you'd be special and the selfish con man could do well for you (and only you) this only time?
The con man who has done NOTHING for anyone else ever (that didn't benefit him), this time would benefit the people, rather than just himself?
Sure, it makes lots of sense.

'Sure, it makes lots of sense.'

That is exactly what is happening in America which is why Matt Frei is flummoxed.

Matt and everyone else.

Why do people want to be conned?

It's like investing in Madoff after he was convicted. You just know he's going to run off with your money.

At least with Bernie, and even Cruz you know better what they stand for. With Trump you're just throwing your dice and hoping for a 13.

I'm certainly not saying Trump looks like Hitler - and anyway there are powerful checks and balances in the US system that would rule out many things he or any other Republican might wish to do.

However, there are some parallels between the current political situation in Europe & the USA and how Hitler came to power:
desperate angry people who have lost previous prosperity, also prospects for their kids and have no hope the political / economic will return it.
Losing what you once had is known to make people much angrier than those in countries who never had anything much.

This problem is likely to worsen, as even more "ordinary" jobs are lost and inequality widens even further.
Those at the top need to plan how to offer realistic hope that things will get better for ordinary people.
"Trickle down" is the wealthy pissing down on the rest. It does NOT work.

More people will take a change on some demagogue if the current system just offers them more of the same.
Vital to agree international rules to avoid another banking crisis. Otherwise, next election someone cleverer than Trump could win. Le Pen could win. Italy & some Eastern EU countries would also be vulnerable to demagogues.

If people feel they have nothing to lose, some will take massive chances and risk it getting even worse.
It's also lashing out blindly in anger.

Italy & some Eastern EU countries would also be vulnerable to demagogues.

Well, Italy is certainly well primed, after having Berlusconi in power.

Some recent national polls:
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
Kasich emerges as the only Republican with a good chance (atm) of beating both Democratic candidates.
Cruz might have a chance against Clinton.

BigchocFrenzy, I'd agree with that and if anything a parallel to the fervor around brexit.

I think that Berlusconi was the nearest thing to Trump. They are both billionaires, both populists, both not politically correct and both say some vulgar and outrageous things.

Except that Berlusconi had nowhere near the power that Trump will have. Berlusconi could never have ended global free trade deals, Trump can tear them up.

I think Berlusconi was someone more intelligent.

Just uncovered this from last year: www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9101619/trump-climate-energy
It's very amusing.
From "nuclear climate change" to supporting fracking and blaming the Chinese for the concept of climate change hoax. And fighting windmills too.

Have you looked at Chavez, though? You should.

'Have you looked at Chavez, though? '

Not yet, I will do because Chavez is interesting. Am only posting and running at the moment, not much time.