Brexit: what would happen to EU citizens living in UK?

[marghini]

I am a EU citizen and I have been living, working and paying taxes in the UK for a while.

I am really concerned about what would happen to the EU citizens who built a life for themselves and settled here in the UK in case of a Brexit.

Do you think all EU citizens already living in the UK would be pushed out? Or perhaps the government would just stop allowing further EU immigration?

misti - you didn't start the thread. And I am picking up a vibe that you think it will be important to the British people what happens to you? I'm sorry but I don't think that's at the top of a Brexit voter's worry list.

and I still don't know what you mean by this "It's no wonder that the leave campaign doesn't want to address these issues".

I said before, this is an issue of a deeply personal nature. I don't think you should get a vote. I didn't get a vote on the freedom of movement across Europe. The point of this referendum is either to say "yes, carry on with this EU business" and give it a mandate, or to say "no, we didn't like it and we want it to stop".

Why should you get a vote? You are not a British citizen? The point is to ask British people a question we should have been asked 20 years ago.

I'm sorry if I am barking up the wrong tree, but the underlying thing I pick up here is "if Brexit voters really understood". We do. Half my street might have to leave the country under Brexit, I am not sure. My employer will have to get visas for some staff or they'll have to go.

I've got a couple of relatives who might have to go. It doesn't change how I feel.

Actually, I've just looked back on this thread
I only arrived on it because I was asking Lurking to clarify the "bloody nose" comment on the general election.

so maybe I shouldn't be here.

I can obviously exit in a frightfully polite and British fashion if you just want to discuss what will happen to you, in a "non-political" thread.

I am a British citizen. I don't get a vote.

I absolutely get that the interests of EU citizens exercising their right to free movement are not a major concern of leave voters.

Does this mean we should be prevented from discussing this topic? Or that we should be discouraged from asking the leave campaign to spell out what they intend for us? There are probably between 5 and 6 million EU citizens exercising their treaty rights who affected by the outcome of the referendum. This is not a small number. Do you think we should all shut up?

Misti "I am a British citizen. I don't get a vote."

sorry, it's playing up when I scroll back on my phone. Why don't you have a vote? You've been off the electoral register for 15 years I guess?

I never said you should shut up, where on earth did you get that from? I started asking you a question because I was confused by what you had said, that's all. I don't know where you would get "Do you think we should all shut up?" from.

"there are 1.26 million UK citizens living outside the UK in the EU's other 27 member states."

www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-referendum-how-many-uk-citizens-live-european-union-where-infographic-1526116

"The population of EU-born in the UK stood at just over 3 million in the first quarter of 2015."

www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-flows-a8-and-other-eu-migrants-and-uk

It is perhaps worth noting that in 2014 EU citizens only made up 48% of the inflows. (2nd link above)

"there are 1.26 million UK citizens living outside the UK in the EU's other 27 member states."

That article makes a laudable effort to quantify the problem, but it is very likely that the 1.26 million is a huge underestimate and it would have been useful they had cited sources. This number includes only 380k British migrants in Spain - this is the officially registered number, but including unregistered immigrants would give a much higher number (I've seen estimates of up to 2 million).

The estimate of Britons in France is similarly on the low side - 170k versus 800k from other sources. There is no requirement for Britons to register their presence in France, and hasn't been for many years - my 10 year resident's card expired nearly a decade ago and I've never renewed it (mainly because it's become quite hard to renew - it's unnecessary so the local authorities are reluctant to process the paperwork). So again, not sure where this number comes from, but it seems unrealistically low. Other sources put the number at around 800k.

I've seen 3 million as the estimate for EU citizens in the UK (no idea of the quality of this estimate; does this include EU children born in the UK but who are not UK citizens?). The real figure for UK migration to Europe is probably at least 2 million, and possibly up to 3m. Hence my estimate of 5-6 million people directly affected by the end of free movement.

It is worth applying for naturalization anyway and there are advantages having it. There is a very small work to do only to collect the documents they need to see but once you ve got those it is fine. www.gov.uk/government/publications/apply-for-a-document-certifying-permanent-residence-or-permanent-residence-card-form-eea-pr I have friends who after working 5 years in UK submitted application did the test and sent off docuuments and they got the citizenship in 2 months, this was a couple of years ago.

Im guessing probably let you stay. It wpuld be unfair to kick out people who have been living here for years and paying into the system same goes for brits abroad

It wpuld be unfair

Yes, it would - but I find people vastly overestimate the UKBA's interest in "fairness".

In view the UKBA's record (eg the 94 year old South African woman, being cared for by her British daughter, who was recently spared deportation only because of a public outcry), it strikes me that only someone an agenda would be suggesting that immigrants might like to rely on the UKBA's "fairness".

I love the "probably" too.

I'm in HE - lots of international students, lots of British/international couples. Lots, lots of visa horror stories. Families separated, people who had done nothing wrong arrested on their doorstep. Business as usual for UKBA.

Apparently the new "meme du jour" is Canada! Let's be like Canada!

That's 7 years and counting for a deal which has not yet been ratified, does not cover agriculture and services, and does not include free movement (except temporary movement of top company execs).

well that's me reassured, at this rate my future hypothetical grandkids will have acquired British citizenship by the time the UK negotiates its way out of free movement

Remember that the two year exit/ negotiation period can only be extended by unanimous agreement. If it takes as long as Canada, then the UK could leave the EU with no agreement in place, and no protection for expats other than that provided by national law in their host country.

Personally I think this would be a worrying development, if there were any evidence that Boris wasnt just making it all up as he goes along. I think the Canada meme will most likely go the way of Switzerland, Norway and Iceland - which country's turn will it be next, I wonder?

That's the problem. There are no 'Stated facts' on the subject. No one knows as the gov doesn't even know.

You won't need to worry as we'll vote to stay in.

If we do vote to leave I doubt there will be a rush to throw people out quickly so that would give time to find a job back in a person's original homeland and for British people who work in say France to find jobs in England.

I think we will definitely vote to leave, I hope so anyway. If we do I think Denmark will follow quickly. I think most of the EU migrants will leave anyway because they will need a visa to work and will not be entitled to any benefits and will have to pay for the NHS and probably education for children.

and will have to pay for the NHS and probably education for children.

I already do that. I pay my taxes.

Thanks to Steve Peers (the law professor whose EU law blog I linked to previously, and who I just discovered is on a FB expats group I am in) I've found the following very useful link for EU citizens in the UK looking for accurate legal advice on how to make a permanent residence application:

www.freemovement.org.uk/how-to-make-a-permanent-residence-application/

In the preamble there is also some general information about what your EU treaty rights actually are (just being in a country for 5 years isn't enough). Unfortunately, the situation for people in chalalala's DH's position isn't addressed, mainly because it's actually legally very unclear.

Steve Peers says he is going to write more about the legal implications of Brexit for EU migrants and in particular what bearing the Vienna Convention has on this, I will share this here in due course.

DG2016
You won't need to worry as we'll vote to stay in.

That's a huge assumption. I feel pretty confident that Out will win but I wouldn't state it as fact.

The thing is, as much as Out voters may have sympathy for people, their decision is unlikely to be based on individuals but rather on what they think is best for the country.

I actually feel like anything could happen. I wouldn't be surprised in neither case.

The only thing that at this point sounds unlikely is a mass deportation of 3 million (EU living in UK) + 1.26 million (UK living in EU) = 4.26 million people.

I don't think there will be mass deportations, but reading that link I posted earlier today is enlightening. Many Britons living in the EU will not qualify for the permanent right to remain under EU freedom of movement legislation, as it requires you to have been economically active for 5 years.

I recommend that anyone who is potentially affected read it: www.freemovement.org.uk/how-to-make-a-permanent-residence-application/

I might be wrong but I do believe we will vote to stay in. Labour want to stay in and half the Tories. Scotland wants to stay in. I think there is a good chance, thankfully. If we do leave I'll be a real winner as for work there will be a lot of things for me to do so I kind of can't lose either way.

(There will not be mass deportations whatever the vote although we might get tougher at dealing with over stayers after visa periods are over)

The party may wish to stay in but there have been polls showing that 27-33% of people who voted Labour in 2015 want to leave and I doubt Scotland's 4m voters will be sufficient to swing the vote, even assuming all voted Stay which is unlikely.

I don't disagree that there is now a reasonable possibility of a brexit vote, but this surely isn't the right thread for that discussion? There's now a whole forum for debating the rights and wrongs of the referendum. We are just talking about consequences for migrants here.

For those Britons (like me) who are deprived of a vote there was a glimmer of hope today - legal action is being taken to contest the exclusion of about 700,000 expats who have been living in Europe for over the 15 year limit. Persinalky I'd also like the see the vote extended to EU citizens who have acquired the right to remain, but realistically there is zero hope of that.