Missing Malaysian Airlines MH-370 - Thread 6

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No pings detected for 6 days. Towed pinger locator & autonomous underwater vehicle cannot be operated simultaneously from same ship, therefore autonomous underwater vehicle will be deployed from this afternoon to map 15 square miles area. Ocean Shield have seen oil slick - samples taken for testing.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27017928

Thanks member

Its not going to be there. Sorry, just my opinion. They are going on not very much unless there are things we don't know...

The satellite data and the Ping data give agreement that this is the best location to look - they may never find it but that wouldn't mean it wasn't there (impossible to prove a negative)

It will take a few days to get a ship to take the oil back and have it analysed.

Press conference transcript, really interesting:

www.jacc.gov.au/media/interviews/2014/april/tr009.aspx
"Angus Houston: Well, one you have asked me about in the past, the one from Haixun 01. There was a detection there. That has been analysed and has been discounted as a credible transmission. So at the moment, this is really all we've got. We have got no visual objects. We have—the only thing we have left at this stage is the four transmissions and an oil slick in the same vicinity. So we will investigate those to their conclusion and that's where we are."

Unsurprising but another agonising piece of news for relatives;

The US Navy said in a later update that no objects of interest were found when the six hours of data were downloaded and analysed.

Its all just so...unbelievable

I can't believe they still haven't cracked it yet . Even when (if) it's found then it's only the start of the puzzle. Figuring out who flew it there and why is the biggest mystery IMO.

I cant get over my feeling that this plane was hijacked and then either shot down by the US or the pilot managed to divert it to stop it being deliberately crashed into a place populated with people.
Anyway. I don't think we will ever know now. I think if this plane was going to be found it would have been found by now. May the souls of its passengers rest in peace.

Another issue with the sub, Unfortunateky.

The oil slick found is nothing to dp with the missing plane

Have just heard that Anya

Don't know if the SAR team can get their hands on a submersible that goes deeper?

Oh, apparently the submersible can be re-programmed to go down to 5000m if needs be. It has now completed one full mission after 1st & second missions aborted due to depth on first go & "technical issues" on second.

www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/april/mr026.aspx

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-analysis-of-indian-ocean-oil-slick-shows-it-is-not-from-missing-jet-9267445.html

Back to square one.

It doesn't mean back to square one, they have an underwater area defined by pings believed to be from black box to search.

If the oil slick had been from a plane, it may have provided further confirmation that they were looking in the right area.

It's disappointing but doesn't change search plans.

I was talking somewhat figuratively. :)

The oil slick was the single piece of supporting physical evidence for the pings.

Without it, the likelihood that the correct area is being searched is much lower.

I am still puzzled,is there any recording and reanalysis of the pings ?

Tin hat on: it's bit there!!!

*not

Well there's been no debris found either, so a tin hat isn't obligatory.

"Without it, the likelihood that the correct area is being searched is much lower."

This is incorrect. If it was the right type of oil, it would increase the likelihood, as it's the wrong type, the likelihood is unchanged.

"I am still puzzled,is there any recording and reanalysis of the pings ?"

Yes, all four ping patterns detected by ocean shield were recorded and found to be consistent with black boxes.

If it was the right type of oil, it would increase the likelihood, as it's the wrong type, the likelihood is unchanged

Bayes' rule doesn't work like that.

The posterior likelihood of an event is always affected by dependent evidence of a binary nature which itself has a prior probability which is neither 1 or 0.

The likelihood of this being the correct search area prior to the oil analysis was balanced somewhere between the likelihood given a positive oil test and the likelihood given a negative oil test. Where it lay along that line is dependent on the prior likelihood that the oil test would be positive.
That likelihood is unknown of course, but 1>P>0.

Yes, all four ping patterns detected by ocean shield were recorded and found to be consistent with black boxes.

I can't find anything suggesting they were physically recorded so they could be replayed and analysed.Do you have a link Doc ?

The only quotes in the media seem to use "recorded" in the sense of "apprehended" / "listened to by someone".

eg www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2603249/MH370-search-teams-stop-listening-black-box-pings-just-days-unless-new-signals.html