Missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 - Thread 5

[KenAdams]

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Thehoneybadger, all you have said is far easier to comprehend if you have lived in Malaysia. Despite its many attractions and well regarded airline, it is still a developing country and culturally very very different to the West. Preferment for positions and roles is based on considerations other than ability.

I worry that people will take the confirmation of the flight crashing, especially if it is corroborated by physical evidence, as the conclusion to this sorry tale, rather than seeing it as the beginning to finding out what happened.

I don't see it as the conclusion but just don't see that we are going to be privy to much more information that will allow us to draw any conclusions until the investigations are complete. Today's PC said that it will be April 5th until the black box pinger locator will arrive in the search area because it is going from the US to Perth & then has to be fitted to an Australian vessel. Given that it took 2 years for the black box to be located after AF447 crashed, this is going to be a long haul.

P.S. does anyone think the Chief Policeman has a smug look about him? His "answer" to questions about not being in a position to release any details because they might jeopardise the investigation makes it sound like that he has pertinent details.

There has been work done in the psychology field about how people react in unusual situations (apols as I'm a longtime out of my degree) but from what I remember people read what they expect rather than think the unusual. So I'm sure those in atc at the time were responding as would be apt for the most likely event - a crash in the sea right where they disappeared from civilian radar.

Also a not very veiled dig at China's satellite images "detracting" from the search by the Acting Transport Minister.

I'd like to think the passengers didn't realise anything was amiss, but I think, unless something, like depressurisation, had happened to make them unconscious they must have done eventually, which is awful.

It was a night flight, lots of them would have been asleep during the flight, the cabin crew would have put the window blinds down. (Whenever I have been on a night flight, the cabin staff have put the blinds down again even when I've opened them especially to look out). If anyone had looked out, it would have been pitch dark, probably too high to realise if you were over an ocean.

I don't know whether the cabin crew would have carried on as if nothing was wrong if they had already realised.

But people surely would have started to realise something was wrong around the time the plane was due to arrive in Beijing, if not before. It's horrible to think about that.

My (limited) understanding is that although MH370 was tracked on various military radars it was not deemed a threat; remember this was all happening in the middle of the night and presumably the plane was still going along commercial routes even after turning back so I think to assume that the various countries knew immediately that the plane had gone AWOL is a bit of a stretch tbh. And of course by the time all the info came out the plane was long gone.

Yes the official story is full of holes; is this so surprising? The Aussies have said they need to find the proverbial haystack, never mind the needle; that says it all surely. And until the plane is found we won't know what actually happened, will we?

I don't really think there's a cover up; there is certainly info being withheld, but in some ways I think that's sensible - what is the point in releasing info that has not been confirmed? All info released has fueled speculation, so if you're going to tell the world something it might as well be something that has been corroborated and confirmed.

yes it was me who said that some on these threads see it as entertainment and I stand by that. Not all obviously, but definitely some, as with any tragedy where there are people clammering for answers.

Truth is that nobody actually owes "us" anything, and now that the plane has been confirmed to have crashed, it's highly unlikely that much will be made public anyway while investigations are ongoing, and those could (and probably will) take years. The only people genuinely entitled to know what happened is the families of the victims, unless what happened is considered to be a matter of public safety. Although of course the conspiracy theorists probably already believe that it was terrorism/international governments/aliens at work...

the idea that half of Inmarsat, Cranfield and the AAIB were all in on it when actually they are just normal people doing their jobs extra hard in the last few days feels to me more offensive than speculation about pilot suicide

I wholeheartedly agree.

Plus, it would be an odd conspiracy theory that created a tantalising mystery that gripped the world. If this plane had to be stopped, why not boggo mechanical failure and spectacular crash on land where the plane can be recovered and the unfortunate but ultimately routine reason for the crash can be discovered?

But anyway, who says there is any one overarching theory that explains everything? The chances are there are cock-ups, coincidences and yes, cover-ups (probably of bits of incompetence by various agencies) and just simple small mistakes made by very tired inexperienced people struggling with an unprecedented situation.

I find the lack of empathy and perspective and judgment by some of the armchair generals quite off-putting.

This is the technical briefing issued to press regarding the Inmarsat analysis here

Fab, thanks.

there is no way for the passengers and crew to have done anything, with a locked cockpit - Incorrect. The cabin crew can get in, wanna.

I kind of see why it looks to some that I'm pursuing a conspiracy theory against all evidence, especially as it's very human to want a satisfactory end - as far as it can be 'satisfactory' with so many dead :( Not so, though. Pretty much what HoneyBadger said at 10:18, including this: "I may just be more accustomed and less avoidant of cognitive dissonance having had to plough through a fair bit of it over the years".

I've no reason to think Inmarsat analysts faked their data. My mind is open on what was done with it by the time it was ready to be shared with the relevant authorities. But I'll just have to live with my strong suspicion that this story isn't as it seems. We're unlikely ever to know for sure.

It's really helpful to see the arc on a 3D projection.

The cabin crew can get into a locked cockpit, if for example the pilots are incapacitated, but I think if the pilots actively want to stop them getting in, then there is some special secret way that they can prevent access.

That was a very clear and concise report member thank you.

It explains in very easy to understand terms how they have used the information and answers the questions about why if they had the information earlier why they didn't give it.

*On 13 March we received information from UK satellite company Inmarsat indicating that routine automatic communications between one of its satellites and the aircraft could be used to determine several possible flight paths.

Inmarsat UK has continued to refine this analysis and yesterday the AAIB presented its most recent findings, which indicate that the aircraft flew along the southern corridor.*

ie- they did give all the info they had at that time but have only just refined it to get the new readings.

I wonder what the partial handshake was at 0019 when the next one wasn't due until 0115 about an hour from the 0011 handshake

Hat's off to them it looks like they have worked steadfastly to extract as much information as possible.

I haven't seen any explanation which doesn't avoid a fair bit of 'cognitive dissonance', to be honest. If someone has one, please tell it to me.

Everyone agrees we do not know all the information, and are not likely to for years.

We don't know what happened. It's likely to be significantly different/ more complex than information we've been given. Where's the conspiracy in that?

Yes, there is no 'conspiracy theory' in seeing that we do not know all the information, that more will emerge over a longish period of time probably, and that it will likely be 'significantly different / more complex than the information we have been given' as MerryMarigold says above.

I also agree with GarlicMarchHare's remark that there have been many 'hush-ups' over the years, many, many, many, and these are just the ones that have come to light.

Whether this is one of them or not, remains to be seen.

It sounds as though Inmarsat, Cranfield and the AAIB have been working very hard to process all the relevant data.

I thought the Press Conference was quite dignified this morning but they did look very uncomfortable a few times and there was a definite complaint about 'wrong information from the Chinese' holding them back in the search which I thought might be indicative of problems 'behind the scenes'.

i disagree that we have no right know anything. this has implications on security for everyone. also presumably the air industry would still like people to fly and does have some accountability for the safety of the service they sell.

likewise governments have accountability and so do massive multi million pound corporations granted licences to make profit by accessing information with national security implications and with the claim to make flying safer.

when you hand thousands of pounds to an airline for flights or wave your relatives off at a departure gate have the right to assume they will take all possible action to ensure your safety. of course we have a right to answers about things like how an airplane going missing in the air doesn't even get reported for 7hrs. likewise all of the neighbouring countries have a right to know as if it had been a terrorist attack they could have been targeted yet weren't informed.

there will have been massive problems behind the scenes - can you imagine if france had an airplane go missing in the sky and didn't bother to tell us or allegedly even alert security forces in their own country?

or if canada did that to the US?

you think if that's actually what happened the countries who'd been put at risk would just say oh yeah, that's understandable cos they probably thought it would turn up or that it had just crashed. no.

and i'm so not buying the 'oh but these forriners are really incompetent' under rug tactic.

The thing that it is hard to understand from the west, is that Malaysia is a conspiracy theorist's wet dream. Nothing is as it seems. Ever. The truth is always unknown. Motives are always hidden behind political suggestion. Even in more simple criminal and civil situations, the powers that be are often less than transparent, and the sense of 'truth' that we expect in the west simply does not exist here. Believe me, things are not as they seem. Of that I am certain. What that means, though, I have no idea.

Honey, that's interesting. Are you saying all those neighbouring countries being mad at you was either the result of:

• Incompetence
• Something more serious which they are not letting on

They are risking diplomatic relations here. They were either incompetent or the info is worth risking relationships over.

We have a right to know how the outcome of the investigation will be used to institute measures to minimise chances of a simillar thing happening in the future, I agree.

This does not mean that the general public should be party to all data submitted to the investigation. For one thing, the average person wouldn't understand it; that's why the investigative team are consulting experts. For another, we have seen how a piece of information can be pounced on by the public (how the Captain had a flight simulator in his house) & a conclusion drawn that the pilot had practised how to avoid radar for nefarious purposes with no irrefutable evidence to support that.

of course the pilots can block access to the cockpit, goldie confirmed this on a previous thread iirc but afaik this was a measure brought in after 9/11.

"All our security could be at risk" a bit of an overreaction. As said numerous times on this thread, if there was any idea this could be terrorism measures would be put in place by now to guard against that. Without question.

Afaik this is the second plane in seventeen years where pilot suicide could be the cause (even the silkair one was never officially confirmed), while one suicidal pilot is one too many, reality is that given the millions and millions of flights that have happened between times the possibility of ending up on a suicidal plane journey is tiny, and it would not be possible to know with 100% certainty that a pilot might be suicidal.

And being hysterical about flying just in case achieves nothing - you are still far more likely to die in a car accident than a plane crash. I speak as someone who is afraid of flying and the concept that it's a bloody long way down, but thinking with that much fear and anxiety about the what-ifs just isn't healthy, and affects no-one but you.

I wonder if they ever did find anything on the flight sim. It was big news it was being taken in for investigation, then... Nothing...?

Didn't the FBI take the flight simulator to see if they could recover the deleted data? I'm sure whatever it was has been recovered by now so it's strange that nothing has been mentioned.