Missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 - Thread 5

[KenAdams]

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I've been on some planes where not only do they have the map in the TV console but there are CCTV cameras, one camera pointing forward and one down. Fab for watching take off and landing. But so done who flew the route often would notice they weren't on course. Even without the camera channels.

I can think of a few reasons why a rogue government might want to fly a remotely controlled aircraft so far into stormy, isolated seas. It heightens the mystery by taking so long to find and there's little chance of finding evidence of what happened since few governments have the resources to pursue it. Chinese would I suppose. Of course we can't say that's what has happened though.

With the probable arc they've given for the flight, surely it would flown over U.S military radar and Australian radar at least several times?

If Inmarsat have been able to determine that their pings look different depending on direction of travel of the plane by comparison with many data points from other known planes then that is proof within a high degree of probability, expressed as beyond all reasonable doubt, indirect proof if you like. It's not conjecture.

What is it that you consider incorrect about the Inmarsat work? Is it because they have used new techniques that may be wrong?

"With the probable arc they've given for the flight, surely it would flown over U.S military radar and Australian radar at least several times?"

Isn't the arc far out to sea?

...and that was the argument against the northern arc before the Inmarsat analysis - the countries to the north checked their radar.

A family member was an expert in aviation safety. He developed the PAPI landing system which is used at airports all over the world and was given various awards for his work. It changed how aircraft navigated into landing on runways and made flying safer for everyone. I'm sure he would have something interesting to say about this but he is no longer with us. It sparked a bit of interest in me about aviation and how things worked, though I am no expert. Just an interested observer.

My DH, on the other hand, developed a phobia about flying after an engine blew on take off on a plane he was on. I mean full blown panic attacks which almost put an end to us flying anywhere. He dealt with it by educating himself and he has his own check list when boarding a plane, he prefers to board a plane from the Tarmac so that he can check there are no bits of tape covering bits of vital equipment for example. Everything has to be exactly in place ( he is obsessive about it) and he would most likely pick up on anything out of the ordinary. It is still very stressful to fly with him and if I can take a different flight, I do. He drives me mad with it.

As someone who has absolutely nothing to do with navigation, aviation etc, I would certainly notice that the sun was rising in the wrong place!

20 March 2014: Inmarsat has announced that General C. Robert Kehler, United States Air Force (Retired), has been appointed as a non-executive board member.During this time he was directly responsible to the US President and Secretary of Defence for the plans and operations of all US forces conducting strategic deterrence, and Department of Defence space and cyberspace operations

So I guess Inmarsat are well placed to fill in the missing data

I'm nearing the point that Saga is & thinking of bowing out of this thread; we know the plane has crashed into the Indian Ocean now & it feels senseless in a way to keep batting around the same bits of publically available information as to what may have happened.

However, although I have absolutely no reason to disbelieve Inmarsat's analysis (I think they've done a fantastic job), part of me needs to see some sort of tangible, physical evidence before - maybe it's being an old gimmer that does it. Those poor famillies, seeing their raw grief is awful.

Interested to see today's press conference; yesterday's hinted at more info & we know that the physical search was abandoned due to the weather.

The general was appointed on Thursday. Inmarsat were already knee deep in analysis by then.

I think I'm with you, member - I don't mind conspiracy theories (although I disagree with them) but the idea that half of Inmarsat, Cranfield and the AAIB were all in on it when actually they are just normal people doing their jobs extra hard in the last few days feels to me more offensive than speculation about pilot suicide, which at least has several precedents.

member I feel the opposite way.

I think the confirmation that the plane went down where it did only deepens the mystery. Something very drastic had to happen and the what? and why? are even more important now. If only to take steps to prevent it happening again.

Was it within someone's control to prevent this? Is it a security issue? Is it a technical failing? Public interest puts continued pressure on authority. It is vital that they go as far as possible to find answers to some of those questions.

I worry that people will take the confirmation of the flight crashing, especially if it is corroborated by physical evidence, as the conclusion to this sorry tale, rather than seeing it as the beginning to finding out what happened.

• I feel the opposite way about bowing out of the thread.

I absolutely agree that there is no reason to disbelieve the INMARSAT involvement.

The brother of one of the passengers on BBC news just now has just voiced my concerns exactly.

A partial handshake an hour after the last known handshake. What does that mean?

Downton, I don't think that will happen - the lost Air France flight was fully investigated and there wasn't nearly so many theories about that one.

I'm in awe of the work Inmarsat did - Doppler shift was postulated on another thread and I didn't think it would be possible. But they found a way.

The independent says Inmarsat could get to the last known location with an error of about 100 miles.

Anyone querying Mr McLoughlin's motivation should watch the NN interview he did the other week. He was so frustrated at the lack of response by the Malaysian govt and politiely voiced his concerns. The fact that despite such a negative response Inmarsat went on and arranged to do all this extra work is a huge credit to them and Cranfield. They don't need the publicity, they are already leaders in their field.

If it is possible to pinpoint the plunge point to within 100 miles I am sure that Inmarsat will be doing this work too.

Wow that's pretty accurate I would have thought? I mean in aviation terms because of the speeds planes travel at. Does that mean they can pretty much give an indication of what time it crashed as well?

My (completely clueless amateur) calculations make 100 miles a 10-15 minutes window?

I'm not quite sure how 'bowing' out will help anyone either .

I think it is even more pertinent now that the 'speculation' continue until the reason for this plane disappearing is found. I'm sure that those poor relatives wouldn't give a hoot what we (and most of the world) are all doing on various forums etc.

Just watching the press conference now.

Still don't hold with any of these conspiracy theories and agree that all the agencies are working their hardest to find out what happened.

I wouldn't necessarily notice if a plane I was travelling on changed direction but I would definitely realise that it was permanently travelling over the sea given that it should have been flying over land for a good part of the journey.

I agree with member. This thread is like a conspiracy theorists playground now. Even if they retrieve the black boxes and ccan report conclusively that it was pilot suicide I suspect there are some on this thread who will insist that information was conveniently created to cover up the ... whatever it is they think actually happened.

But of course, there’s every chance the black boxes won’t be able to be retrieved or that the circuit breakers were disconnected which means they will have stopped recording at a time of the pilot’s (or co pilot’s) choosing. That happened in the silkair crash – the pilot disconnected the circuit breaker first to the black box then the flight data recorder and then he plunged the plane into the river... But of course people will speculate that perhaps the malasian, Chinese, US, British, where does it end, government installed faulty black boxes to back up the pilot suicide story...

Do people think that if this was a government conspiracy they would have made it look quite so mysterious? It would have been far easier to claim the plane had clearly altered course within a matter of hours thus giving the impression planes are tracked wherever they go, and hinted at it being in the Indian Ocean much sooner thus backing up the pilot suicide theory, and none of this conspiracy claptrap would ever have been brought up.

And to people saying “surely the passengers/crew would have noticed the change in direction,” well yes quite possibly, but then what? As said above, there is no way for the passengers and crew to have done anything, with a locked cockpit (usually with a pin code) the only communication with the outside world would have been through that door, so any amount of knowing something was amiss wouldn’t actually have meant passengers/crew could have done anything about it.

The reality will probably never be known. But the conspiracy theorists probably don’t want to think it has a logical explanation because that makes it less intriguing.

But just one more thing, those who believe all this conspiracy stuff, how on earth do you live with quite so much suspicion – it must be exhausting.

I think so much more will come out in the following weeks/months/years. I absolutely do not believe in any cover ups and don't believe that any terrorist groups were involved. Maybe a lone person on board or even one of the pilots but definitely no great cover up. I think it's awful that the pilot or the co-pilot could either be the hero or the villian but that we may never know.

i don't actually 'have' a conspiracy theory i am just totally convinced that the official story is full of holes.

you actually believe that a nation would not have a security response to a plane going awol and wouldn't report it for 7hrs? let alone a nation there, surrounded by other nations, with china just across the water and massive military installations in the neighbourhood? do you not think all of their neighbours would be going mental that they hadn't warned them that there was a rogue plane in the sky?

you don't need to know what is the truth to know you're being lied to and not knowing the truth doesn't mean believe whatever you're told even if it's full of holes.

however i may just be more accustomed and less avoidant of cognitive dissonance having had to plough through a fair bit of it over the years so have less of a need to believe whatever alleviates it itms.

"If it is possible to pinpoint the plunge point to within 100 miles I am sure that Inmarsat will be doing this work too."

I'm not sure if the 100 miles referred to the seven hour point we've always known (ie the arc) - I think so - or the partial handshake Downton mentioned above.

My presumption if a plane dropped off comms would be a malfunction, then a crash or ditch into the sea that it was over at the time.

Who knows what the Malaysians relayed to the Chinese, the Thai etc initially - I doubt we'll ever be told. I don't know at what point the Vietnamese - in whose airspace the plane was supposed to be - alerted the Malaysians they couldn't raise the plane.

I agree wannaBe. Was it you that said it felt like one of the previous threads was entertainment? Someone has even been on PPRuNE and mentioned MN, which I find very odd and attention seeking.

I have had dealings with Inmarsat in the past from a telecoms perspective and am saddened that their motives are being called into question when they have actually played a blinder with new modelling of the info.