Missing Malaysia Air plane

[KenAdams]

It's so sad. They still haven't found anything, but thinks it's crashed into the sea.

For anyone that hasn't heard

"What do you think the probability level is that's caused them to send a vessel off that way meditrina?"

a) probability levels are not possible to assess once an immensely improbable event has already happened (see Bad Science et al)
b) there are about 60 ships and 50 airframes combing an ever widening area. This isn't "probability" - it's what is actually happening.

(And of course, US military ships are always near DG, so makes sense to have them search the pace they are already near. But that's my intuition, not assessed probability, so ready to be told why a search wouldn't do it that way round).

"Could it really fly depressurised, on autopilot, for 5 hours?"

Yes.

The only reason it wouldn't is if something caused an upset - like turbulence, that caused it to roll and therefore turn. It had enough fuel to do that.

Just to go a bit further - the upset would have to be severe enough to disengage the autopilot. If autopilot is engaged on a heading, and nobody touches anything, it will keep on flying until it runs out of fuel. It doesn't need to be pressurised to stay airborne. It only needs to stay pressurised to keep the passengers alive.

Oh i meant somebody mentioned Diego Garcia so i googled it and it seems there is a runway there (or something like that) so the plane could land there?

Oh i meant somebody mentioned Diego Garcia so i googled it and it seems there is a runway there (or something like that) so the plane could land there?

Wouldn't the USA effectively be holding all the passengers illegally then?

Doubt it, its got a US base

*To add, obviously i don't think its there or we would know, i mean maybe that's where it was heading

"there are about 60 ships and 50 airframes combing an ever widening area. This isn't "probability" - it's what is actually happening"

Yes, but the search area is based on a level of probability of finding something. The USS Kidd has gone out of that widening search area and pattern. If what's happening is that the search isn't being performed respecting a standard pattern, then they'll never find it. It's like looking for a needle in a stack of needles!

"probability levels are not possible to assess once an immensely improbable event has already happened"

Execept that hull insurance is based on assessing the probability of that improbable event occurring and putting a value on it. The same as trying to evaluate MTBF on ETOPS, for example.

The probability might be quite low, but still needs to be investigated, given that all other probabilities seem also quite low. It could just be a bit of flag-waving. Or it could be that getting involved in a real situation is better for the crew and their equipment than a planned training exercise. Or it could be a "someone's got to do something" and this is something the US can do.

"The probability might be quite low, but still needs to be investigated"

YY to this - definitely. It has to be investigated. I'm just wondering out loud what it is that's prompted the best equipped military on the planet to go out and do this. I guess I'm saying that I think they must know something... Something very specific.

Is anyone watching The Plane That Vanished on channel 5?

Goldie, if a plane was to basically run out if fuel and glide down, would it be possible for it to sink with no trace at all?

And now that more time has passed and different news reports have different details, what's your educated guess as to what's happened?

I'm just having a look-see at Diego Garcia on Google Earth (idle curiosity). I count 7 B-52 bombers, 6 refuelling tankers and what's either a 7th tanker well away from the others or might be an electronic intelligence aircraft. There'll be many people that would like it's capabilities and influence in the region removing.

Not least the Chinese.

Now there's a conspiracy theory for ya .

The insurance industry is based on predictive probability, and that is not the same as "probability" when looking at possible causes of an immensely rare event which has already happened.

They are searching every possibility, because no-one knows what has happened, nor (in these circumstances) which of the physically possible options is 'probable'.

I forgot about that programme publicenemy, thanks for the reminder!

It does seem that the depressurisation(?) theory could be right. But what I don't understand, is today they are reporting that it may have been deliberately flown along specific waypoints that only an experienced pilot could do. The plane wouldn't be able to pick a route like that on autopilot would it? Wouldn't it just go straight?

Goldie.

My personal theory is the plane has been hijacked, and has landed. The whereabouts of the plane is known, but as negotiations are currently taking place, no more information is being released.

"Goldie, if a plane was to basically run out if fuel and glide down, would it be possible for it to sink with no trace at all?"

Extremely doubtful. The engines would stop running and it would glide down relatively gently and it may well come down at a shallow angle but it'd break apart (have a look at the Youtube video of the Ethiopian Boeing 767 hijack which did more or less that, except the crew were conscious and trying to guide it in).

"And now that more time has passed and different news reports have different details, what's your educated guess as to what's happened?"

I really don't know because I really don't know what's true anymore - there's so much conflicting information. I still err towards accident rather than hijack. I still prefer to think decompression, hypoxic crew and it kept on flying. There's nothing to disprove that theory yet but it does depend on the aircraft having turned round to fly west. Whatever it turns out to be, it'll be extraordinarily simple. It nearly always is.

It could be that the US knows something they're not revealing, though if they do find the aircraft they'll have a lot of explaining to do in terms of what they knew, when they knew it, and how did they know it. If they did have an early indication of where the aircraft came down, they might have held back on that in the hope that someone else would find it before the situation got to the point that they might have to come clean on their monitoring capabilities.

Sorry, got to turn in for the night. Shattered after lack of sleep last night. A demain, hopefully. And I sincerely hope that I wake to find that the Americans have found it in the Indian Ocean. At least it'll be an end to the mystery.

We have the programme on channel 5 on. It's very mysterious.

Thanks Goldie.

Thanks for that it's interesting. I do agree that I think there will be a simple explanation!

a 'cyber hijack' theory on channel 5 - how likely?

I always find just one more thing to tempt me back!

"The plane wouldn't be able to pick a route like that on autopilot would it? Wouldn't it just go straight?"

It couldn't pick a route like that on its own, no. The pilot programmes the waypoints into the aircraft's FMS (Flgith Management System) and the autopilot will follow that set of pre-programmed waypoints. The only way the aircraft will execute turns at waypoints is if the FMS has already been programmed to do it. If it's suggested that the aircraft executed turns at waypoints when heading in a direction other than the intended flight route, there's only one conclusion. Somebody has programmed the FMS to do it.

Right, nighty night.

I'm so glad you answers that Goldie-I would have been wondering about that all night! nighty night!

Nothing adds up does it