Missing Malaysia Air plane

[KenAdams]

It's so sad. They still haven't found anything, but thinks it's crashed into the sea.

For anyone that hasn't heard

"One of the things that doesn't make sense with this scenario, Goldie is the switching off of the secondry radar (either by a failure or on purpose) but then the plane continuing to fly for an hour where it was tracked by primary radar. Why would the pilot not ditch it immediately?"

I'm not sure what this really refers to? The fact that the ADS-B wasn't transmitting? If it was hijacked by sophisticated hijackers, they'd know to turn off the ADS-B. It's a beacon on the plane that tells receiving stations on the ground where it is - it's not a radar as such. It's active technology on the plane that transmits data - if you want to see what it does have a look at flightradar24.com. Primary radar is a radar ont he ground that sends signals that bounce of the plane - that can't be deactivated from onboard, and the aircraft is passive. It seems it's known that the flight continued for at least an hour - maybe until it went out of range of the radar or maybe it dropped below the radar or maybe it crashed. Hard to know. The primary radar was ata military installation for air defence - it's more than likely any potential hijacker didn't know it was there. It's usually not published where you can find these radars - and the island where the radar is doesn't appear on Google Earth!

"Reading Pprune's threads about Korean Airlines certainly opened my eyes to the saving face aspect Goldie!"

PPrune can be brill but there are a lot of people on there who pretend to know about aviation and are really sitting in an armchair in their lounges. Some things you read on there are preposterous!

Could this have been caused by a military accident/incident?

Could technology have advanced where it is possible to scramble/jam comms from a distance (maybe a ship) It kind of fits with some of the bizarre facts both official/unofficial.

If comms/radar were jammed that could account for the plane disappearing from secondry radar. Wouldn't the pilot have headed back to land with a lower altitude to try and get bearings from the land mass which could account for the plane position when it was being tracked by primary radar.

Goldie Your posts are brilliant and fascinating to read. Thanks so much

Oops Goldie, sorry I meant the pilot suicide. it would help if I made that clear wouldn't it!

"And the island with the radar on doesnt appear on google earth" - fascinating stuff!!

"Could this have been caused by a military accident/incident? "

Yes, it might have been shot down accidentally. Or deliberately after what happened on 9/11.

"Could technology have advanced where it is possible to scramble/jam comms from a distance (maybe a ship) It kind of fits with some of the bizarre facts both official/unofficial."

Maybe but you'd need a big jammer that would be hard to hide.

"If comms/radar were jammed that could account for the plane disappearing from secondry radar. Wouldn't the pilot have headed back to land with a lower altitude to try and get bearings from the land mass which could account for the plane position when it was being tracked by primary radar."

No, not really. A fast moving aircraft - 500mph - would have to be jammed by another fast moving aircraft. It's not possible to have a blanket jamming like this would required. The aircraft would soon be outside of the area being jammed.

The radar (ADS-B) is not used for guidance or navigation. The aircraft would use two separate, independent systems. One is VOR - VHF Omindirectional Ranging which uses ground based transmitters to triangulate the position of the aircraft; the other is GPS. To block the GPS signal, you'd likely have to be above the target aircraft. You can't really navigate an aircraft of this size at speed visually at night. You have to do it on instruments. At night, pilots shouldn't even be looking outside - that has caused accidents through spacial disorientation as well.

Thank you so much Goldie, I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but just wanted to see if it were possible.

"Goldie Your posts are brilliant and fascinating to read. Thanks so much"

My pleasure! Aviation is often misunderstood. Either too complicated or too simple!

Can I ask one last thing but promise you won't laugh, as I may just be making myself look even more stupid...

The Sky News programme discussing the scenario of a cabin pressure depressurisation, the crew setting the plane to return to Kuala Lumpur and then falling unconscious and then the plane flying on 4000 miles and crashing in the Indian Ocean. The pilots setting the plane on a new course rather than getting their oxygen masks on is the critical error it was suggested.

It sounds plausible. It explains why the plane would have been seen turning back then on the wrong side of Malaysia by military radar.

a family friend was on the silkair plane which crashed because of pilot suicide. In that case everything was disabled prior to the plane diving virtaclly into the river. black boxes etc. and when it went down it took less than a minute to drop 35000 feet and hit the river. Not one single identifyable body was recovered but around 70% of the wreckage was.
If the plane had gone down due to suicide, why would the captain make the effort to divert the plane somewhere else? after all once it had gone down it would be over...?

"Can I ask one last thing but promise you won't laugh, as I may just be making myself look even more stupid..."

No such thing as stupid questions - only stupid answers (says my boss)

"If the plane had gone down due to suicide, why would the captain make the effort to divert the plane somewhere else? after all once it had gone down it would be over...?"

That's true but the suicide theory is an early speculation as to how there can be no large debris field. I think we're all stil waiting for firm confirmation that the aircraft actually has diverted. It's still breaking news, really.

Dh says what if the pilot didnt realise they'd changed course? So they thought they were still on the right route?

Now I'd think there is GPS, instruments, etc to prevent such an error but he reckons its possible?

"Dh says what if the pilot didnt realise they'd changed course? So they thought they were still on the right route?

Now I'd think there is GPS, instruments, etc to prevent such an error but he reckons its possible?"

How would the aircraft change course without pilot inputs, though? The pilot has to deliberately set a heading in the flight management system (FMS) to a waypoint. The VOR display shows the aircraft's positiona nd the track to the selected waypoint. Somebody would have to change the entry in the FMS or command a different magnetic heading in the nav system and then both pilots would have to be asleep....

I think he means if the instruments were out and the pilots were flying the plane and inadvertently changed course without realising what they'd done.

Bit like the AirFrance plane where the pilots thought they were pointing the plane downwards but were actually pulling it up so much they stalled it.

\link{http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/11/missing-plane-definitely-turned-back-malaysia\this says the plane definitely turned back}

'air force chief Tan Sri Rodzali Daud said the plane was detected at 2.40am near Pulau Perak, an island in the Malacca Strait, several hundred kilometres north of Kuala Lumpur'

"I think he means if the instruments were out and the pilots were flying the plane and inadvertently changed course without realising what they'd done."

They'd have had to have a complete instrument failure for that to happen. It's possible but it's more likely I'd win the lottery 5 weeks in a row...! To do a complete 180 degree turn without noticing would be quite difficult - they were initially north-east bound and to get to the supposed new search area they'd have to have turned west-north-west.

"Bit like the AirFrance plane where the pilots thought they were pointing the plane downwards but were actually pulling it up so much they stalled it."

They never thought it was pointing downwards, though. They thought by pulling back on the stick and putting huge amounts of power on they could climb out of the stall.

Got to turn in for the night now. Will check in again tomorrow night.

Thank you your answers and thoughts on this thread have been really informative.
On one of your earlier posts you mentioned that flying at night caused spacial disorientation, is this the same thing as the aeronautical blackhole that has been mentioned on some news reports? I was a bit wtf at first because I thought they meant an actual blackhole type thing through time and the reporters were being facetious (which i thought was inappropriate) but the report then said they were fairly common in that area. Trying to find out what they mean has been a bit of a challenge, but I took it as it is when a pilot thinks they are going in one direction but are actually going in another. Is that right?

Fascinating latest update on the MA website Goldie - referring to an incident involving the First Officer...getting wierder and wierder.

The thing that I can't understand is that if the plane u-turned and it is correct that the plane seen on the military radar at 2.30(?) am was this flight, the pilots didn't do what they are supposed to do if there is a situation.

So either catastrophic failure of equipment or something else prevented them from doing so.

Ah no...its not new..just me getting timezones muddled and failing to RTFT. All so very sad and so terrible for the families and friends of those missing.

"On one of your earlier posts you mentioned that flying at night caused spacial disorientation, is this the same thing as the aeronautical blackhole that has been mentioned on some news reports? I was a bit wtf at first because I thought they meant an actual blackhole type thing through time and the reporters were being facetious (which i thought was inappropriate) but the report then said they were fairly common in that area. Trying to find out what they mean has been a bit of a challenge, but I took it as it is when a pilot thinks they are going in one direction but are actually going in another. Is that right?"

I'll answer this one then I'm really turning if nor the night!

No it's not the same. What they mean by a black hole is an area where there are radar or ADS-B 'dead spots'. They are so far from reasonable coverage that the aircraft can't be seen on radar or on ADS-B tracking any more. The aircraft is simply out of range of any electronic monitoring. The same happens in the middle of the Atlantic, Pacific or over Siberia. In this region it's really because there are vast expanses of jungle where it's impossible to put the necessary 'listening devices' or there's a lot of water.

Spatial disorientation is where you look out of the window of the plane on a pitch black night with no external reference point and you can't actually tell if the plane is the right way up, upside down or in a gentle turn. You can't tell if you're climbing or descending. On a pitch black night over pitch black water your brain can't interpret what's going on. this is one example of what happens. MH370 was in this kind of situation - over water in the dark.