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Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

977 replies

chicaguapa · 06/03/2014 11:47

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

OP posts:
Hopefulgoat · 28/03/2014 20:54

Looks like the Russians really think US is preparing for war. en.itar-tass.com/russia/725757
I don't find all this funny

PigletJohn · 28/03/2014 22:57

I suppose if you look at a Russian website like that, you can expect to get a Russian perspective.

Maybe if Russia was less keen on military invasions, things would be calmer.

What do you think is the reason for Russian troops massing on Ukraine's eastern border?

mathanxiety · 28/03/2014 23:43

I think Russia had of lot of oil contracts in Iraq and so some say that's why they didn't want an invasion, as obviously they all got torn up once coalition got in etc.

Lukoil had a contract in Iraq that was cancelled in 2002 (before the 2003 invasion of Iraq). It wasn't until 2009 that Lukoil and also Gazprom won another Iraqi oil contract.

There was and remains in neo-con circles much sour grapes about Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction being whisked away by Russian special forces to Syria and the Bekaa Valley. Russia maintained while all the grandstanding about WMD was going on that there were none.
.........

PigletJohn, I don't understand how an exclusively western perspective could hope to shed light on matters. As far as I can see, all it accomplishes is the generation of heat.

PigletJohn · 28/03/2014 23:58

I have not objected to goat putting forward the Russian view.

I have however commented that it is what she is doing, and from time to time have put forward alternative views, or commented on what she writes.

I would be really interested to hear what is her opinion of the reason why Russia is massing troops on Ukraine's eastern border, close to Ukraine's oil and gas fields.

mathanxiety · 29/03/2014 00:01

Still baffled by your comments and even moreso in light of your question.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 00:06

Do please give me an example of a comment that baffles you and I will see if I can help.

Hopefulgoat · 29/03/2014 00:43

Apparently Putin called Obama today, which might be sign of increased tension, but BBC commentators see it as sign of negotiations. The discrepancy between the Western and Russian press releases really revealing.

Putin's official website says they talked about Transnistria. eng.kremlin.ru/news/6936 "Transnistria is essentially experiencing a blockade... Russia stands for the fair and comprehensive settlement of the Transnistria conflict and hopes for effective work in the existing 5+2 negotiation format". Those talks apparently were planned anyway.

Obama's statements does not mention it. www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/28/readout-president-s-call-president-putin

They talked about submitting Western and Russian negotiation positions before. The latter involved federalisation of Ukraine. Open mention of Transnistria is new.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 00:47

do you suppose it will be the next place to be invaded?

mathanxiety · 29/03/2014 01:59

Maybe what the residents of Transnistria should do is get some right wing support and take to the streets. That seems to be a guaranteed way to get the US on your side. The US could choose a Prime Minister from the region's leading politicians, or maybe some bank official would do. Next step would international recognition of the will of the people. Or maybe they could have a referendum on their future. A referendum would have the advantage of being a democratic expression of popular will whereas a rebellion in the streets fuelled by right wing fighting spirit and perhaps a little vodka would clearly be lacking in that ingredient.

The next place to be invaded will be Venezuela.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 02:03

Do please give me an example of a comment that baffles you and I will see if I can help.

mathanxiety · 29/03/2014 02:18

...Venezuela -- leftwing government that nobody in Venezuela likes, even the lefties in other governments in South America won't give the time of day to the current prez, civil unrest, repression, citizens detained and killed by security forces, the assets of foreign firms nationalised. ..... and oil. So clearly there are democratic values at stake. Or perhaps democracy is in safe hands after all. Maybe we can breathe easy knowing that the government there knows what is really important.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 02:36

Sorry I can't help you with your Venezuela bafflement.

However, if you can give an example of one of my comments that baffles you, I will try to help.

mathanxiety · 29/03/2014 06:30

Amazing nobody has yet produced a tape of that call.

Amazing too that none of the hundreds of journos who covered the mob scenes in Kiev have just packed up and gone home, leaving eastern Ukraine and Transnistria like veritable trees falling in the forest.

Lack of facts doesn't get in the way of screechy articles however:
50,000 troops on the frontier!
80,000 troops on the frontier!
40,000 troops! -- No wait! 88,000 on the frontier!
You have to wonder if cute Ukrainian pols are still playing east against west there.

A shot of sanity in the Canadian press
'Putin’s willingness to negotiate also suggested some confidence that he will be dealing with the West from a position of strength, having annexed Crimea and largely dispersed the remaining Ukrainian military units that had been holed up on bases awaiting instructions from Kiev. The Ukrainian government this week formally ordered a withdrawal of those forces.'
It may well be that Putin will be willing to 'compromise' -- keep Crimea, post observers in eastern Ukraine to keep Julia 'nuke 8 million Russian speakers' Tymoshenko and Friends honest, and guarantee that Transnistria will not be subject to illegal efforts at strangulation by Ukraine.

Compromise will be more difficult for Obama, who by his bellicosity has painted himself into a corner and now has several episodes under his belt where he has said to Putin 'take away the troops or else'. Despite the 'give 'em heck' 'tude, there are mutterings in the US that he has shown himself too weak. By contrast Putin, who is enjoying huge popularity in Russia, has been quoted as saying he is happy with what the Crimean events demonstrated as far as the Russian armed forces were concerned -- good morale, showing positive results of reforms, which may mean he believes he can emerge fairly unscathed with a compromise reached.

The call to Obama was also designed to make Russia look reasonable and eager to see stability return, which will play well in Brussels. The remarks about turmoil and the Ukrainian right wing and illegal blockading of Transnistria are for the benefit of the EU, which above all else wants stability, the right and nationalist forces opposed to the EU stamped out, and to keep the gas and oil flowing. So here we have an attempt to put a wedge between the EU and the US, and it was met with lawyerly weasleyness by Obama ['put it in writing'], who must mollify the warmongers at home.

CNN Money article -- and maybe Russia won't lose out even if Ukraine stiffs her on the now-cancelled loan deal that was trumped by promises of western taxpayers' money arriving in wheelbarrows.

Ukraine faces loan repayments on $145bn of dollar debt this year including a scheduled payment next week iirc of at least $1.5bn to Russia for gas delivered in 2013 and part of 2014. If Ukraine defaults on the gas debt in particular, I wonder is it possible that Crimea could be offset against the money, and possibly some other parts of the country too, to spare Tymoshenko the effort of going nuclear. Other creditors will no doubt be mulling the pound of flesh option or holding their sticky hands out for IMF and EU and American money.
Torygrah again:
'There will be no haircuts for creditors under the deal, unlike the EU-IMF formula in Greece and Cyprus. This amounts to a bail-out for Russian state banks [how ironic] and Western funds accused of propping up the previous regime and for vulture funds that bought Ukrainian debt cheaply for quick gain.
Tim Ash, from Standard Bank, said: “Ukraine has been the ultimate moral hazard play and it’s cavalier to expect taxpayers to cover this.” [But cover it we all will it seems.]
'Mr Ash said it has been obvious since 2011 that Ukraine was heading for the rocks, yet funds continued to snap up its bonds, betting that the country was “too big and geopolitically important to fail” and would always be bailed out in the end by Russia or the West.'

The big issue, and the reason for the troops on the Russian side of the border, is the US's stubborn idea that NATO must be expanded into eastern Europe despite the successful softer approach of EU economic embrace of eastern European countries and the westernising of political culture in former Soviet Socialist Republics that are now EU members. The reasoning behind the Marshall Plan has been forgotten by Washington, mainly because defence is such a profitable industry but only if the government is paying money for missile systems, etc. A big chunk of the American economy failed to rationalise in the wake of the demise of the USSR. If the Marshall Plan was supposed to work in the face of Stalin's Soviet Union then surely the approach where economies would gradually become strong and intertwined would work when Russia, the US and Europe are all committed to prosperity? The only proper conclusion to draw from Washington's expansionist ambition for NATO is really the one that Russia has drawn -- that the US wants to destroy and loot the Russian Federation and believes it to be weak enough to accomplish this.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 09:43

Is there nobody who is willing to offer an opinion on why Russia has massed troops on Ukraine's eastern border, close to Ukraine's oil and gas fields?

No?

Well let me start then.

It is so Putin can intimidate Ukraine and provide a threatening posture, and so that, should he consider the moment to be opportune, he can order another military invasion, occupation and annexation. Continuing the Anschluss of Greater Russia at the expense of his neighbours, and emphasising to the rest of the world the military might of the new Russian empire.

DoctorTwo · 29/03/2014 10:48

I've just watched an interview with Torygraph columnist Liam Halligan in which he was asked whether Ukraine was the new Greece. His reply was "I hope not. But I don't think they'll be allowed to default as they're too geoplolitically important to Russia, Europe and the US".

If he's right expect the West (and it will be the US really, see Victoria Nuland) to appoint a former Goldman Sachs banker in power of either the whole country or the finance ministry. Cue years of enforced austerity and probable riots.

I think it's interesting that the US are threatening to undercut Russia's gas prices. At the moment this is an empty threat. After the shortages of the '70s it became almost impossible to get a license to export hydrocarbons from the US, so they don't have the infrastructure required to do so. That difficulty of export is the reason why liquid natural gas is cheap there. If they were allowed to export prices would rise to match the worldwide market. This will probably get fast tracked through without consulting congress (see TTIP) because, durr, money.

Halligan also mentioned something fascinating: a complete change in focus as to who is now seen as the bogeyman. The threat from Al-Qaeda is sooooo last year. Russia is, according to US military, the new enemy. My opinion is that it's the western Military Industrial Complex that is pushing for intervention and possible war, not Russia.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 11:24

And yet it is Russia which has recently seized, and is posturing to invade again, its neighbour.

Tell us how you think that is the responsibility of the western military complex.

Hopefulgoat · 29/03/2014 11:27

The whole Ukrainian crisis is probably driven by the US military to a significant extent. The military complex needs to create reasons to maintain investment, now that NATO was under threat of irrelevance. McCain is still re-fighting the Vietnam war. As Afganistan is over, the generals needs new occasions to march up and down the hill and get their toys out.

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 11:38

Hello goat.

Please explain how you think the western military complex causes Putin to order his troops to seize Crimea and to mass on the Eastern border of Ukraine close to Ukraine's oil and gas fields.

DoctorTwo · 29/03/2014 13:41

"You cannot, in the 21st century, invade another country on false pretexts". Who does John Kerry think he's kidding? How many countries, I wonder, are the US military involved in.

How many puppet presidents are in power because of them?

Why do they enforce 'democracy' on countries who don't want it but when it's used they condemn it?Why don't they enforce democracy on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia? Oh yeah, they buy (currently) aircraft and weapons from the EU and US, that's why repressive regimes are encouraged. They don't mind when Bahraini doctors are imprisoned for 15 years for treating protesters.

They hate anything that exposes their hypocrisy, their war crimes and their spying on world leaders and citizens. That's why Chelsea Manning for thirty odd years and are after Assange, Snowden and Barrett Brown.

Hopefulgoat · 29/03/2014 14:54

This whole crisis is a classic example of Brzezinski doctrine of destabilising Russia by creating conflicts on its border regions, without any considerations for the people of those bordering nations whose economies and societies were destroyed in the trilling chess game..

Looking at the trail of civil wars, ruptured societies, economic collapse and failed states left behind by our recent interventions (Afganistan, Iraq, Libya), you could understand why the Russians don't want to become the next Syria or Iraq. They don't want to be overpowered by NATO and dismembered into a next failed state, like it was the case under Yeltsin.

mathanxiety · 29/03/2014 15:34

He means you have to have believable pretexts Smile.

Nothing to see here PigletJohn. You can put away your pompoms.

It is interesting to see the minimising of the far right's signals in the western media while the Ukrainian 'president' himself 'warns of far right threat'

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 16:32

"This whole crisis is a classic example of Brzezinski doctrine of destabilising Russia by creating conflicts on its border regions, without any considerations for the people of those bordering nations whose economies and societies were destroyed in the trilling chess game"

No, goat, it is a classic example of a mighty power executing military invasions of its weaker neighbour. In this case it is Russia which is performing the invasions.

Are you willing to say why, in your opinion, Russia is massing troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, close to Ukraine's oil and gas fields?

Hopefulgoat · 29/03/2014 16:45

I was thinking what made thew Germans so oblivious, so easy for them to carry on with their lives while millions were being slotered. Those people manning the concentration camps just used to come home to their families as if they were back from a day on the market. They say that Goebels propaganda deshumanised the jews and even the slavs as infirior race, so German didn't treat them like people, didn't have to think of their needs and rights, didn't have to confront any moral dillema.

I am wondering what a century of anti-soviet cold war propaganda has done to the western population? After all they were supposed to have democratically endorse the nuking of the Russians... How can you do that if you believe the Russians are people like you and me?

PigletJohn · 29/03/2014 16:49

I am wondering what a century of anti-western cold war propaganda has done to the Russian population?

claig · 29/03/2014 17:10

'I am wondering what a century of anti-soviet cold war propaganda has done to the western population?'

Nothing.

"Most Americans don't think the U.S. is obliged to intervene in the recent annexation by Russia of the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. A majority of 61 percent of Americans do not think the U.S. has a responsibility to do something about the situation between Russia and Ukraine, nearly twice as many as the 32 percent who think it does. There is widespread bipartisan agreement on this.

Public opinion about U.S. responsibility in Ukraine is similar to views about U.S. responsibility in other international conflicts. Majorities of Americans did not think the U.S. had a responsibility to intervene in Syria (68 percent)"

www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-most-say-us-doesnt-have-a-responsibility-in-ukraine/