Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

[chicaguapa]

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

As I said before:

I haven't heard anyone describe Russian-speaking Ukrainians as occupiers. Have you?

I notice you did not answer the question on Wednesday, so perhaps you won't answer it today either.

Stalinism is alive and well in Latvia.

“Latvian MEP Tatjana Zdanoka, a member of the Greens, has been placed under investigation by Latvia's security authorities, accused of being an agent of influence for Russia”. for her political views defending human rights of Russian speakers who are declared “non-citizens” in spite of being born in the country.

Coincidentally the party defending human rights of Russian speakers according to the polls seem to attract most votes in European elections.

The accusations are exactly the same as the worst of Stalin’s “enemy of the people” and Hitler’s “enemies of the Reich”. Security services prosecuting elected politicians for being “an agent of influence.”

Latvia is a shame for European democracy

So why did you introduce the idea that Russian-speaking Ukranians were occupiers, goat?

Piglet, I certainly didn't introduce that idea.
Why do you shift to personal attacks and change the subject every time the Ukrainian Nazi are mentioned?
Can you acknowledge that Bandera was a Nazi?

goat, just to answer your question regarding Tymoshenko's tape (will read the rest later). I admit I've heard only the first part as it was played on Russian TV channel when it first appeared (assumed this was all), where she mentioned killing russians 'and their leader' as they came into crimea - now that I 've heard the end of it, about russians living in the East, I'm even more convinved that it's an edit. It's incomprehensible, to use your expression, that she would say anything remotely like this knowing that she is likely to be listened to! That would drop her rating with vast majority if voters (already not high), and also it would be an impossibility to even distiguish russians who live there as most of the region speaks russian, whether they identify as ukrainians or russians, also many russian who actually mived to live ther from russia now have ukr passports. Even if she was supposed to mean russians with rus passports, the comment is non-sensical - how can you kill then with 'atomic weapons' without destryong the whole region. Even if this was juts a euphemism, she would never have said this on the phone, I don't liker her at all, but she';s not a complete idiot.

On the other hand, it's obviously useful for FSB who is making an active emphasis on opression and threat to russian-speakers and russians, to build up their armoury for the possible moving in the troops to 'defend the population' in ukraine. I don't think it's likely that this will happen now - they were waiting to see how big the protests they can encourage in the East and go from there - well, the protests aer not huge and most people do not have a desire to be part russia, they want to be listened to by current govt and even by the EU (regarding their industries and possible subsidies), and that is being promised and the govt will start the process once they know where they stand with EU.
It's ridicuos to expect very quick decisions - Russians aer trying to use this transitionary period to stage and also to support unrests WITHOUT giving the current govt a chance to make offers and discuss things with the East, which they will be doing. They are in a rush to de-stabilise before elections, as GOd forbid, the East may actually like the new president and would drop all the protests once they hEAR what's on offer.

Btw Ukraine is not planning to join NATO and nor nato is keen on this, so whoever is worried about that, it's again mainly scare stories from russia. Russia may specify this point if there is any economic cooperation with Ukraine, and Ukr govt would go for this, Yatseniuk pretty much said this.
There is a risk that Tymoshenko becomes a Pres but atm her rating is not high. She is hateful (toward Putin, who she cooperated with previously, and towards all and sundry really), and used to uncontrollably shouty and agressive, now learned in prison to be measured and outwardly more calm but you can see how often she gets red in the face and hardly controls herself. The danger is mainly because she is obsessed with concept of being at the top and in power - very dangerous, even someone from her own part mentioned it while she was in prison. She said she wouldn't even want to have any economic relations with russia after crimea, which is a bit stupid, not sure whether she's backed down now, but what I'm saying is, within her own party many don't support her views (like the current PM). I think he should stay a PM for the near future.

People know this and they want a fresh face, so fingers crossed Poroshenko is well and able. He is a measured and balanced person but patriotic and he cares about people. Obviously we don't know how good he will actually be, but he's the best person to give that chance to now.
I don't agree that interim govt is doing badly - they are focusing on economics now, and Yatseniuk outlined the plans in the main debate show on Ukr tv (led by excellent journalist, who invites ALL sectors of politics and it's live, an open debate), all of these plans sound sensible. They aer also not against cooperating with russia economically once the EEC agreements and russian conditions are coordinated (if russians refuse, then obviously will have to find other answers). They aer doing what they can is the extreme;ly short period of time, and obvoiusly everyone is waiting for elections, when more can be done. If you mean inclusion of the right sector - they have to do this to some extrent after the right sector participated in Maidan and some lost their lives, but also to show that the new country will not shut out the westren ukraine (i.e. Lviv and surrounds). You have to know that Right sector is not all thugs - on the same weekly debate programme that I mentioned, the journalist invited guys fron the right sector too - in the last two, both were young sensible men who are patriotic but also sensibly-talking thinking men, not 'psychos' like Miroshnichenko who most people hate in Ukraine. The problem is, these live debates aer in urkainian or russian and not shown in the west even though you can watch live on youtube, and the picture of the right sector emerges that they aer all thugs. This was discussed with these young guys on the programme, they both conceded that they have to be vey careful if they want to restore any respect to their position and not seen as hooligans and thugs which many of then are, but definitely not all are radical or would ever be interested in intimidating or attacking ordinary Russians or russian-speaking ukraininans. They do nOT want the bad image that some of the leaders give them, but they aer militant against communists (in parliament) and russians invading crimea (in hindsight, and if they wre allowed to fight then). This is anti-opression movement in its majority rather than radically neo-nazis of which there is a tiny percentage. They had a role to play in the revolution but now they ve been told by new govt that if they don't change the fist-fighting attitude, they will not be taken seriously or supported. So I don't see how the current govt is not doing the right things.

The law about state language is stull being debated, and will imo be decided whe the Pres is elected. As I say it may make sense to have one language as official- especially as most people who didn't speak Ukr in the past, have learned over the years now (including some of my relatives and friends)as it's needed at places of work, but of course having a state lang doesn't mean that anyone who uses russian daily/on the streets would be intimidated - it's ridiculous as you would be talking about the majority of Kiev (let along east), who either speak russian (albeit with Ukr accent) or switches betwen the two depending on who they speak two. It really has NOT been a problen for years. But they may still want to have two state langs if that's what's best, it's still in the process. There will be discussions with the eastern ukraine about it.

Goat, you have twice in two days spoken of Russian-speakers not being invaders. I have asked you twice if anyone has said they are. In the absence of which, you are the one introducing the idea.

goat, I've still no idea why many/most of your posts refer to Bandera. It's the past. It may be recognised (the movement) to an extent that it fought for freedom of ukrainw, but the vAST majority if Ukrainians disapprove the nazi-collaboration. The supporters are a tiny minority who will never govern Ukraine because PEOPLE are not going to elect them. This, as I mentioned already, is not only tedious but dangerous if people reading these threads don't have any other info to go on but your posts, and will be getting the impression that it's a dominant force in Ukraine.

Perhaps that is her intention.

Nazi SS Galicia was in Galicia - a tiny part of land compared to the scale of ukraine, which never belonged to Russia, unlike the rest of Ukraine, but was under Poland and other places before the ww2. They collaborated with Nazis in fear of russian invasion - obviously still wrong and shameful, but as they only become (taken)as part of the Soviet union in the middle of last cen, the rest of the Ukraine doesn't identify with those people or their extreme views. Bar individuals who admire Hitler in any given Euro country, I don't count them. As a group though, it was, and is, isolated. Now when you hear western ukrainian tv channels, the young people who are democrats and pro-EU, always sound very ironic on the subject - it's constantly used by russian propaganda and western young ukrainians (who are near/in Galicia) always ironise how 'of course we have banderas walking around here knocking off anyone who speaks russian, ha'. Yes, I know the radicals were more visible recently due to the instability and revolution, and they've been violent to old govt's officials (wrong), but never civilians on the streets. Still no one is supporting the violence, especially now that the fighting stage has ended, and they know it. They know also that if they cause violence, they will be arrested or risk being killed (already happened with one).
The danger is, that this is where provocations can be easily arranged, by someone attacking a Russian while posturing as the right sector. They've been told this repeatedly now, on tv and otherwise, and as i described in the other post, the healthier element of the right sector is not approving the behaviour of some others - so the extremists have no future.

beagles

this tactic of constantly raking up atrocities from the past, but only if the were committed by the Nazis and their allies, while ignoring or glossing over atrocities from the past which were committed by Russians, Soviets and their allies - does it also occur on Russian media?

yes, PJ, it is intentional, I'm just trying to see why - is it the russian propaganda as goat is a big supporter of Putin, or is it just stubborness and inability to see a bigger picture of Ukraine and its current driving forces? People may argue that large sectors of ukraine are driven now by old links with russia, by the west, by economic aspirations only - if they don't believe the thirst for democracy and civilised living as mentioned by me - but to argue it's driven or dominated by Banderas and the neo-nazis is just plain and simple FALSE.
Apart from the aspirations of the young for democracy, the majority of Ukrainian families (not in the tiny galicia, I grant you) have grandparents who fought Hitler, lives lost, Kiev was occupied - so the chance that anyone would allow such influence is nil.

of course it does, PJ! I started watching russian tv channels recently (nevder had a desire to before), and it's jaw-dropping that most of the news EVERY day is taken up by banging on about the right sector and raling up archives (in the news!) about bandera and atrocities, without mentioning anything positive at all about the events in Ukraine now, often blatantly making up stories of what's happening now i nkiev (i.e. passers by attacked). There were attacks by simple violent hooligans who postured as RC when police was gone and new one hasn't formed yet. NOw the right sector is never on the streets intimidating anyone - I have relatives in kiev. But the relentless bomardment in russian news is just brazen.
In Moscow there was a 50000 peace march by progressive young people and also people of old ages who aer free thinking, incl famous songwriteers who are big figure of democratic movement in Russia. Also forner chess player Kasparov is in their midst (he is a politician now), so while the masses ar wathcing russian tv and being scared, the thinking people make their own minds watching internet and talking to people across the border. I don't blame the older population who are nostalgic about the USSR as they have a right to feel whatever they feel under such influence. They never lived in other countries and may be scared of western liberalism, such people are easy to brain wash. Now that the EU has problems , it's even easier. One famous and popular MP constantly stokes the anti-west attitudes by going on how the west always hated Russia etc (not just politicians) without any evidence, and silly people believe it. He likes to go about freeing the eastern europe from germans, and them being ungrateful (the older generation Poles) by hating russians - no mention of how the army never left, how eastern europe was made into Socialist countries without their consent - it's all unbelievably 'back in time'[ drivel but it's on tv /youtube all the time, wit hmany adoring fans. amazing.

that's interesting. I suppose immersion in Russian media is bound to lead to a different perspective. I was particularly amazed when goat was (or pretended to be) ignorant of the extermination of almost an entire generation of educated Poles after the 1939 invasion, and actually said "What are you talking about?"

(for the benefit of math, who thought that the 1968 invasion and occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968 was part of the war against Nazi Germany, I will mention that although Brotain, France and others went to war with Germany in 1939, the Soviet Union's war commenced in 1941. WW2 ended in 1945)

Piglet,

I certainly never spoke of anyone being invaders. Maybe I misunderstood you.

PigletJohn Thu 10-Apr-14 01:17:38

I would of course prefer no occupying force at all

Which occupying force did you mean in the sentence above, Piglet?

Beaglesaresweet, are you saying that her remarks on leaving not even scorched earth where Russia stood, and killing Russian president Putin are therefore likely to either maintain or improve her standing in public opinion? To argue that nuking specific individuals in the east of Ukraine would be impossible and therefore she didn't say it isn't a credible argument -- after all she clearly said she would kill Putin and leave not even scorched earth in place of Russia, and how is she going to accomplish that? I disagree with you that she isn't a complete idiot. She spoke in Russian and she should know that her calls are likely to be bugged. Nuland's and Pyatt's phones were bugged. Even Angela Merkel's mobile phone was tapped last year, so she had to have guessed there was a possibility that hers was too.

In the larger scheme of things, the whole point about the Tymoshenko phone call is that it is believable enough among a large section of people in the east to cause alarm. The believability stems partly from her past performance as a politician and partly from the personality she projects ('uncontrollably shouty and aggressive' is right and I agree with the rest of your description too). The credibility also stems from elements of the current turmoil and the surge of the Right. I would hazard a guess that the PACE report DoctorTwo mentioned would also add to the unease of people in the east who see themselves backed into a corner here.

The current PM himself has a record of being 'difficult', so maybe relations are equally strained on both sides and for similar reasons. If he stays on it is likely he will be as much a force causing division as Tymoshenko is.

I agree with you- I do not think Tymoshenko will be elected president. Voters are not all stupid.

Voters are not all as easy to manipulate as you suggest either -- you can't allege that the whole Maidan protest was a genuine and sincere upswelling of public opinion (in spite of the taped call from Nuland to Pyatt setting forth the aims of the State Department) while at the same time asserting that protests in the east are all the work of Russia. I think you should give protests in the east the same benefit of the doubt you extend to those in which a western pov is expressed.

Regarding quick decisions, and participation in debate:
Many extremely important decisions on finance have already been made, very fast and under severe pressure from the West, and without any say on the part of the Ukrainian electorate. Televising debates is not the same thing as allowing the electorate to weigh in. The general public will not have a chance to vote on any measures or how they will be implemented. Street protests that have taken place have been labelled the work of terrorists, so it is clear that the government is not really interested in alternative points of view. In addition, parties expressing opposing points of view in parliament itself have been physically attacked by individuals who are party comrades of members of the government.

Ironing out the nuts and bolts the those quick decisions entail may take a while but the general direction has already been decided upon, and imo the east is right to be worried that large numbers of people will shortly be victims of 'rationalisation', 'downsizing' and other euphemistic body blows. They fear they will be treated as irrelevant by new management and new owners who do not have ties to the region, they fear deals are already being done without their input (a reasonable fear given the deals already made so quickly between the govt and the IMF, EU and US), and they fear the oligarchs who now run the show in the east will sell them out, purely because of a perception that oligarchs care more about money than about principle or the poor (Porsoshenko's political career to date shows him blowing with the prevailing wind, which is not a good sign for people whose security is a stake). For all these reasons, the east fears consultation will not occur, and they will be written out of the future of Ukraine.

Regarding the Right:
I think it is axiomatic that the Right have not bought democracy at all. This is certainly the prevailing view all over western Europe, which has experienced at first hand the effect of the rise of the Right. Eastern Europe has a more ambivalent view of the Right because of the history of that region in the Cold War era. Brushing off the core tenets of the Right in its philosophy and its behaviour because some of its members present well on TV is naivete. I doubt any western government that is fully engaged with the EU (and by that I mean all western governments) sees anything but a grave threat in the rise of the Right. Not just a threat to the political parties who espouse democracy but a threat to the future of democracy itself.

There is no room in a democracy for being 'militantly' opposed to anyone else's opinion or physically attacking members of parliament, in the parliament itself when they exercise their right to address that body. They have shown what they are. And prominent and notorious members continue to hold posts in the government, so I disagree that the government is doing what is right wrt the Right. Guardian article on the composition of the current government.

A note on language:
It makes absolutely no sense to have one official state language. In fact, insisting on this point will make it very difficult for the government in Kiev to masquerade as anything but anti-Russian and hostile to the east. Other bi-lingual states manage perfectly well with two official languages. By contrast, the Baltic states have left themselves open to well-justified criticism for their stance on language (and other elements of policy wrt Russian-speaking minorities) and the issue continues to dog political life in those states. A move to impose Ukrainian as the official language will appear vindictive and politically irresponsible to Western states (which have been moving in the direction of inclusiveness and stepping back from triumphalism in relations with ethnic and linguistic minorities while Eastern Europe entrenches). The language issue is yet another element of the situation that causes the east of Ukraine to worry that a government hostile to its interests is about to roll over it.

Hopefulgoat Wed 09-Apr-14 17:25:53
Russian-speaking Ukrainians are not occupiers.

PigletJohn Wed 09-Apr-14 17:48:03
I haven't heard anyone describe Russian-speaking Ukrainians as occupiers. Have you?

Hopefulgoat Thu 10-Apr-14 11:26:40
...Russian-speaking Ukrainians are not occupiying force

PigletJohn Thu 10-Apr-14 11:36:02
As I said before:
I haven't heard anyone describe Russian-speaking Ukrainians as occupiers. Have you?

PigletJohn Thu 10-Apr-14 14:26:05
So why did you introduce the idea that Russian-speaking Ukranians were occupiers, goat?

Hopefulgoat Thu 10-Apr-14 14:48:52
Piglet, I certainly didn't introduce that idea.

No?

So who was the first to bring it up then?

Piglet,
Why are you attacking me by distorting what I say?
You post repeatedly about occupations. Here are just a few:

PigletJohn Thu 27-Mar-14 10:01:46
In Ukraine every family has experience of military invasion and occupation by Russian troops

PigletJohn Thu 27-Mar-14 06:01:39
With repeated experience of invasion and occupation, and of being ruled by Russian stooges

As far as I know only the Banderas and the extreme right thinks that Russian-speaking Ukrainians are occupuers and should be removed from the country.
What do you think Piglet?

thank you for raising that.

In both cases, I mentioned the invasions, in response to preceding posts about invasions, occupations and stooges.

This is consistent with my stance that all invasions and occupations of Ukraine should be condemned.

Are you perhaps thinking of asserting that Ukraine has never been occupied by Russian troops?

Piglet, why are you deliberately distorting what I say on page 10 of this thread when I highlight that Bandera nationalism has a Nazi roots?

Bandera killed 100000 Poles in Volyn, why are you accusing me of ignorance for bringing this to your attention?

Why do pre
*Hopefulgoat Sat 29-Mar-14 17:40:17
from Piglet;s post: goat, are you also thinking what made the Russians so oblivious, so easy for them to carry on with their lives while millions were being slaughtered? For example, when an entire generation of educated Poles was exterminated by being individually shot in the back of the head, and their bodies piled into pits?

What are you talking about? Do you mean the Volhyn massacre committed by the Badera collaborators under orders from the Nazi? The same Bandera that president Youshenko made into a national hero and who is worshiped as the spiritual father of the Svoboda party currently in the interim government in Ukraine? 100000 Poles were shot by the Ukrainian nationalists...

Hopefulgoat Sat 29-Mar-14 18:06:01

Or maybe you mean the Katyn massacre?

But don't you know it was committed by Stalin's secret police. The people in Soviet union didn't know anything about it until the early 1990. It is strange that you would want to blame "Russian people" for being oblivious to something they didn't agree to and knew nothing about.

Stalin was a psychopathic dictator and all of his policies had mass casualties. The whole point is that he was not a democratic leader, he didn't have the mandate from the people to do those atrocities. Those casualties were always kept secret, even after his death, because that information would undermine the support for the regime.

I am really surprised that you are so intent for blaming ethnic Russians for all the evils of the world, even on the basis of distorted facts and misinformation.
---
Why do you say that:
PigletJohn Thu 10-Apr-14 16:12:32
I was particularly amazed when goat was (or pretended to be) ignorant of the extermination of almost an entire generation of educated Poles after the 1939 invasion, and actually said "What are you talking about?"

What is is you allege I am ignorant about?. Why are you distorting what I say ?

Piglet, could you clarify, was Bandera a Nazi?

From what I hear, he was for a time linked with the Nazis. However as far as I can see, he was no different before, during or after his Nazi period. Do you think he was?

I imagine that he lost his enthusiasm for Nazism after being deposed and imprisoned by them. Don't you think so?

Beagles,

You make a few good and important points about people being fed up and needing true democracy and being sick of thieving oligarchs. I agree and we should discuss that.

However inaccuracies with the facts in your posts are surprising.
often blatantly making up stories of what's happening now i nkiev (i.e. passers by attacked)
So what is happening in

I think our media should report this as well, because this gives a flavour of the experience of people on Ukrainian streets. Yes, they have protesters for democracy, but also these sort of gangs that do exist. We shouldn't be denying this.

goat, it is I think generally agreed that Bandera was no friend of the Soviet Union, which discredited and later murdered him. Nationalism in the Soviet satellites, and attempts to gain independence prior to the collapse of 1990, were very much frowned upon.

Did you perhaps form your opinion from the Soviet or Russian perspective?

without mentioning anything positive at all about the events in Ukraine now

I struggle to find reports of positive developments under the current governments in UK media or even in Reuters. I don't watch Fox news.
They don't appear very competent. The EU is sending special technical assistance groups to help them to get organised and to do the government business. I think the country in destabilized and it will cost a lot of out money to keep it from becoming a failed state.