Join me in mild panic about the latest volcanic ash cloud...

[Whoamireally]

So here I am, stood in my lounge, surrounded by half packed suitcases, wondering what the ash cloud has in store for us this week?

My sympathies are with anyone flying from NI/ Scotland who has had their much looked forward to holiday cancelled or postponed already this week - the cloud is headed south and it could be airports in Northern England/ Wales tomorrow. Due to fly from Bham to Tenerife on Friday so on tenterhooks to see whether we'll be affected too.

I know it's much better to be stuck at home than abroad but still very disappointing...

Trying to be philosophical as there is not much you can do about it and much better to be safe than sorry - I know lots of MNetters have been through the first cloud, what happened about your hols in the end? Did you get a refund, or are you out of pocket?

helpful ash forecast it only covers short term.
black is where ash exceeds engine tolerances. Note that the charts are at different heights. Most of the ash is low level. It does show some disruption is likely in parts of spain/portugal/southern france for a bit.

met office discussion about our airspace.

iceland met office updates about volcanic activity.

Those 2 links plus the one above probably cover most aspects.

I am adopting head in sand approach for this. We are due to fly to Vegas for may half term. Lots of my famly are going and my little sister is getting married there. Not yet accepting there could be issues. Think my sister would rather be stuck there and get married than not get at all!

I am doing head in sand too. dh is flying to the states in 2 weeks, with BA of all companies.

Just found the artivle that said about the second one, here it is :

Odds On for a Holiday in Wales this Summer

A sudden increase in the number of summer holiday bookings in Wales is expected to continue as fears for further volcanic activity in Iceland persists.

Following news that bookies have slashed the odds on a second Icelandic volcano erupting this year from 6/1 to 11/8, people seem to be taking a safer bet by booking their summer holidays closer to home.

?We?ve seen a huge increase in the number of people booking a summer holiday in self catering cottages around Wales this week? said Llion Pughe, Director of Luxury holiday cottage agency Best of Wales.

?It seems that many people have been delaying their decision to book their summer holiday this year for various reasons. The recent uncertainty surrounding the volcanic ash has definitely played a significant part in this. The latest developments seem to have been the deciding factor as people opt to book self catering holidays in Wales and the UK.?

Katla has been showing signs of unrest since 1999 and geologists have growing concerns that an eruption is imminent following the recent eruption of neighbouring volcano Guðnasteinn beneath the Eyjafjallajökull glacier.

In the past 1,000 years, all three known eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull have triggered a subsequent eruption of Katla.

Whilst a second eruption could be disastrous for airline companies and holiday makers hoping for a trip abroad, there might be a consolation price for those who choose to stay in Britain, with recent predictions of a warmer summer this year.

A report by Positive Weather Solutions (PWS), predicts that June, July, and August will all experience warmer-than-average temperatures, whilst there may be record temperatures in the latter part of summer.

According to Jonathan Powell, Senior Forecaster at PWS: ?A very warm summer has been on the cards for some years, and the Met Office believed it was likely to happen last year. But now it is time to get the barbecue out, and people should be able to find a good deal after last year?s Met Office forecast.?

To check availability for holiday cottages in Wales this summer, visit www.bestofwales.co.uk

Supposed to be going to faro tomorrow morning! When would be the best time to call and find out?

I thought the powers that be decided it was safe to travel anyway
don't panic for nothing guys!!

But a load of flights have been cancelled to spain and portugal

compo - they have revised the ash concentration levels at which aircraft are deemed to be safe to fly. However, the core of the current ash plume exceeds the safe concentration levels. As you can see in this link

We have just cancelled our holiday to Portugal for this summer and booked a holiday near the coast in North Wales instead... we only lost our deposit so thought it was better to lose the deposit than being stranded abroad for god knows however long!!!

I have just called Thomson and the guy was incredibly relaxed about it all - said not to worry, no cancellations planned....woo hoo!

excellent suncream

But am still worrying what if the ash is really bad really and they're just not telling me?!

suncream, if you look at the charts yourself here you can see how the situation improves for portugal into tomorrow morning (bottom charts) on link.
not so great temporarily for central france though...

I've been looking at those, but being spectacularly stupid, I really don't understand them . Whay are there two for 6am (our flight time....)

they are for different flight levels (or heights).

The one showing FL000-FL250 is the lowest level - ground to 25000ft is where much of the ash has been concentrated recently. This has an impact on taking off and landing at airports.

Airlines cruise at 35000 to 40000 ft which is why the two charts: FL250-FL350 and FL350-FL550 are the important ones for transatlantic flights.

The red on them is considered to be the boundary of the ash, the black is where it exceeds safety limits.

does that make sense?

ah, thank you! So I'm looking at the 250 - 350. I am so stoopid!

not at all! does take some getting your head round it.

keep an eye on the 000-250 as well around the airports you are using.

So what's going on with today's transatlantic flights from here? I can understand delays, but why all the cancellations?
I'm due to fly on Wednesday to USA. What are my chances?

cancellations? I don't know I'm afraid. I can understand the cancellations to parts of southern europe. News reports mention diversions to transatlantic aircraft around the ash but not cancellations.

I think parts of Scottish and Irish airspace may be closed from later tonight into tomorrow.

I honestly don't know about wednesday. I'm concerned that northerlies are setting in Monday/tuesday which may bring it into our airspace. I think its wednesday evening they start to swing round again. I'm sorry if that seems pessimistic.

I may be wrong on Scotland and Ireland though

Some good news is that the volcano isnt sending the plume as high as it has been for the last few days

am embarrassed about scotland and ireland, was trying to connect up news reports with charts and I think I got it wrong. I don't want to write things that are wrong that alarm people unnecessarily .

Don't worry, kitten. I've read many of your previous threads on this subject and I don't believe you're an alarmist.
Nothing can be done about it. Just need to wait and see. But I'm trying not to get excited anymore about this trip that I've been looking forward to for months. Just in case.

I really really hope its ok for you.

and thank you I do try to be sensible about what I write!

updated charts
it does now just seem to tickle the north western edge of Portugal tomorrow morning. I have scoured news report and I can't see any airport closure predictions for tomorrow in portugal.