I suppose the market is contracting a bit because of less international students. Everyone can ‘shuffle up’ a tier. That means those who would have gone to lower rated RG might get higher rated RG. Those who were just outside RG level can make it in etc etc. With less students overall, all have to accept slightly lower grades than previously to fill - except maybe the tiny number of most in demand courses. So there is still a pecking order.
If the market contracts and unis have to close, it will be those that struggle to get bums on seats - and as stronger unis lower grades to fill, it will be low ranked unis that struggle. First they will close some courses and later who unis will probably need to close or change their role. Given upper tier unis have expanded a lot and need to fill and students will go to those if they can, lower tier will lose out.
It’s an opaque market because as mentioned upthread, many unis like to retain a sense of exclusivity - the official standard offer both helps them manage their numbers and appear desirable. But for lots, the reality is that significantly lower grades are accepted to fill. But many ‘consumers’ of HE are first time buyers (well all teens are nd first many parents it’s their first child or most don’t have enough kids to become truly ‘expert’ in the way it works) so only after the event really realise that the standard offer at most but the top tier and most competitive courses, really won’t be needed.
Lots later realise they could have gone somewhere ‘better’. Many won’t care or be bothered….and that’s just as well because if you did care, the realisation could be pretty galling.
I’d say that unless you’re looking at subjects like Econ and Comp Sci, or you’re looking at top 5-8 unis, almost all other courses and places will be taking people with lower grades. In fact even the top 5 often will. But for them it’s often a of taking firms who missed by a trade (and carefully selected students who achieved the required grades in the most relevant subject) rather than going to Clearing - and to get the offer in the first place for the top 5 places for many courses, esp the popular ones, in excess of the standard grades in terms of offers is needed as too many apply to all receive offers.
Clearing can be deceptive. For example, Durham was listed in Clearing for numerous courses from July. As results day got closer, the number of available courses dwindled and on results day, Clearing there had finished within an hour. Some of the available courses will have literally had a couple of spaces and grades accepted were only the standard offer grades or above. But other places will have had multiple places available and been taking pretty much any grades, esp as some of their own ‘firms’ upgraded to higher tier unis.
It takes a certain mindset to be willing to throw over your firm where you’re guaranteed accommodation, and snap up a place elsewhere where you might not be guaranteed accom or only get non uni- owned or expensive accom and not know for weeks. Most teens and families won’t go for that option even if they could get a ‘better’ uni. But for those who are up for it, some great ‘bargains’ can be had, especially in middling RG unis.