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Higher education

Talk to other parents whose children are preparing for university on our Higher Education forum.

Did your DC drop an A level grade but still get accepted by the uni they firmed?

53 replies

WonkyTree25 · 25/10/2025 09:23

Did anyone’s DC miss a grade or two from their predictions and still get their firm? If so would you be willing to share which course and grades they still got accepted on?

Youngest DC applying to unis and weighing up choices. Her brothers did not achieve their predictions and lost their places in '21 and '22. DS1 dropped two grades AAA to ABB (Notts Psych) and DS2 one grade AAA to AAB (Bristol history). DS1 applied the year after the cohort given teacher assessed grades so there was very little in clearing - he did an unrelated subject with lower req’ts at Notts. DS2 in 2022 went to his insurance. Read that 2025 was a bit easier due to reduced int’l students and Covid pressures easing and I don’t see why this would change for the 2026 cohort but you never know! UCAS historical grades haven’t been updated for 2025 so there is no updated info for comfort! Remembering the stress of sorting DSs and it’s impacting our advice for DD, her school want her to be more ambitious but DH and I are stressing realism (and we have one of each in her choices but its the last three)! I fully appreciate things could change again this year but just curious about a general trend as in 21 and 22 unis were very, very inflexible and oh so easy to miss a grade by one or two marks. Thanks!

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Treylime · 25/10/2025 09:31

I think it my depends on the course and the Unis. I'm interested in this as ds2 is applying for Sept 26 at the moment. DS1 missed his offers by 3 grades and 1 grade for CompSci in 2023. From what I've gathered though CS is very competitive and other courses might be less so based on what has been in clearing for the last couple of years.

Treylime · 25/10/2025 09:33

My DS ended up going through clearing and apart from the trauma of results day his clearing choice has been a great success.

WonkyTree25 · 25/10/2025 09:59

Thanks Treylime, yes it will be course dependent, but was surprised that even the psych course (which i think is a similarly popular subject) DS applied for he would have got in last year.
I am not worried about the long term with clearing but DD is an anxious one and prefers certainty - also accomodation can be a bit of, or indeed a very big stress depending on the uni!

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Frankiecat2 · 25/10/2025 10:02

This year, my son went for Bristol at AAB as his firm choice and Nottingham at ABB. On the day he got BBB and was accepted by Bristol and could see (somehow?) that he’d also been accepted by Nottingham.

I think he was quite lucky to have had results this year to be honest!!

Piggywaspushed · 25/10/2025 10:10

Last year was a bit of an odd year.

I am a teacher and don't know anyone who ended up in clearing. Some had to go to second choice (more than we usually see of this) but many got first choice unis with grades lower than their offers, in a few cases substantially. This is a range of subjects including psychology, history, Eng Lit, MFL and law. The uni that seemed to be taking in most with lower grades than expected was Bristol - but that may have just reflected its uptick in popularity at my school. I don't know why or the exact circumstances but Cambridge maths was one the year before who took a student who had dropped to AAB! This year that did not happen for an HSPS student but their insurance choice took them with slightly lower grades than offered.

BobLobla · 25/10/2025 10:12

Dd2 dropped a grade but still got into Warwick. Like others have said, depends on the Uni and course and also on the other results that year as it can change from year to year.

CatusFlatus · 25/10/2025 10:14

DD dropped a grade and got into Exeter, a scientific subject.

1apenny2apenny · 25/10/2025 10:29

Yes dropped a grade and still got place. Frankly most students who dropped a grade seemed to still get their place. I’m talking RG unis - Durham (although never happens according to MN 😂), Exeter, Warwick, Bristol etc

Beachcomber74 · 25/10/2025 10:51

All people I know got in despite a grade drop apart from to Durham. Friends DD got AAB and still got English at Oxford.
Maybe look at less competitive courses at top flight universities.

titchy · 25/10/2025 11:07

What subject and what are her predictions?

clary · 25/10/2025 11:15

Not my DC but I know a couple of YP who dropped a grade or two and got in to Brum and Liverpool.

Agree with Piggy tho, this year was an unusual one. Your older DC @WonkyTree25 will have had TAGs on 2021 – that was my DS2's A level year and his uni (Luffers) was very full and struggled for accommodation, like others, as they had to honour all offers obvs. It had nothing in clearing that year which is certainly unusual. At the same time, less popular unis were struggling to fill spaces. DD's uni (Leics) offered her a very cheap deal to go back into halls for her final year. (This is all 20221 sorry)

I think 2025 was different, obvs not TAGs, but also possibly a lot of lower grades bc of the Covid effect that was still lingering – back to no exam concessions but a cohort that had had a tough time in 2020-21. So possibly a lot more YP that usual just didn't get the grades needed. Unis want to fill their courses.

I don't think it's safe to assume the same will happen in summer 2026. It may of course. But there is no guarantee from year to year.

WonkyTree25 · 25/10/2025 11:50

All very interesting thanks for replies everyone. Just did some digging and found this - which would suggest that A level grades were broadly similar in 2025 to 2024 (albeit slightly higher number of As in 2025) - (If anyone interested here - https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2025/08/a-level-t-level-and-other-level-3-results-2025-the-main-trends-in-grades-and-entries/) that would indicate that the 2025 cohort didn't get much lower grades - but maybe their predictions were way off, understandably given the last few years have been all over the place? Piggywaspushed, my DS' friend also dropped two grades at a popular course at Bristol and was still accepted.

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Phphion · 25/10/2025 13:14

The situation last year was driven to a large extent by the fall in international PGT numbers. To offset the lost PGT income, universities turned to the popular, cheap(er) to teach undergraduate courses that weren't overly limited by space requirements - maths, economics, business, some other social sciences and humanities, some psychology courses, depending on the university - to increase their undergraduate intake because these were the courses that could do it practically because they had the numbers of applicants / facilities and financially because they could still balance their books with more undergraduates.

This happened rather late in the day for applications so those courses often hadn't adjusted their entry requirements and also hadn't fully modelled the increase they would need to make to their number of offers. Consequently, they often didn't have a significantly larger applicant pool or a significantly larger number of people holding offers, so the way they could increase their intake was by taking more of the people who dropped grades who they would normally (and in their existing modelling) have rejected. The other alternative was to go into clearing, but this is less certain in normal years and even more so when the intake expansion at the top universities was having a knock-on effect throughout the sector. For this reason, the 2005 entry data isn't a particularly good indication for what will happen this year for a lot of subjects.

For this year, the most likely scenario is that it will be somewhat easier to get an offer for these kinds of courses because they will have adjusted their entry requirements and/or the number of offers they make, but there will be less leniency for dropped grades because the need for a larger intake will have been properly built in earlier in the process.

clary · 25/10/2025 14:00

That's very interesting @Phphion thanks for the detail!

WonkyTree25 · 25/10/2025 14:35

Phphion really interesting, thank you so much! Do you think the top unis also learned how to expand their numbers from the year of teacher assessed grades?

Kind of wish the higher education experts could share their predictions for results day in the same way experts on Bloomberg discuss their stock price predictions!

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Spirallingdownwards · 25/10/2025 17:54

Frankiecat2 · 25/10/2025 10:02

This year, my son went for Bristol at AAB as his firm choice and Nottingham at ABB. On the day he got BBB and was accepted by Bristol and could see (somehow?) that he’d also been accepted by Nottingham.

I think he was quite lucky to have had results this year to be honest!!

He would have been able to see because he missed the grades for Bristol initially and Nottingham made their decision prior to Bristol and accepted him on UCAS. The unis get the grades the week before.

Fleurdelise · 25/10/2025 18:12

I think it is worth mentioning that every year around 75% of pupils do not achieve their PGs. That is, they drop under their predictions and a lot of them still get accepted into Uni. This year, whilst the grades achieved have been similar to 2024, more got accepted into their firm even if they dropped below by a couple of grades.

DD's conditional was AAA she got accepted into her firm (Loughborough) with ABB.

Phphion · 25/10/2025 18:38

From my own experience, I would say that the learning is less from the bigger specific teacher assessed grades cohort and more about understanding the enduring impact of changes that were made during and immediately post-Covid @WonkyTree25 .

For us, a lot of these are to do with the physical capacity of the university and our understanding of our space needs and how we can reconfigure things to accommodate more students. Previously, we were right at the limit of our lecture theatres' capacity and would have struggled to take more students as we would have nowhere we could teach them. Since the pandemic we record / stream lectures and there is plenty of space in our lecture theatres for more students because, outside the first week when (in my department) we have to stream some lectures into two theatres, so many of the students don't physically attend the lectures.

Similarly, while this has not happened in my own department, I know that in one of our neighbouring universities, staff are now set up for working from home more which means that they are not required to work at the university as much and so are seen as being able to share offices and conduct confidential meetings online. This frees up office space for the additional staff (many of whom are on fractional contracts anyway) now needed to teach and support the increased number of students as well as for use by university support services, as small teaching spaces for more seminar and tutorial groups and as ad hoc meeting rooms.

Increased digitisation of library resources that ramped up during the pandemic has allowed university libraries to remove even more of their paper resources, creating more study spaces in the libraries, so there is space to match the demand arising from the additional students as well as from the increased number of students who have to live off campus.

Other universities face less space constraints, but may have to make more changes to do with changes in the ability range of their students. There may be some learning there from all the Covid cohorts, as although they weren't less able, they did have less preparation for university-level study and required more support. Some courses, for example, do more 'little and often' assessment to keep students on track, so more students adds a bit more marking time for staff at multiple points in the year rather than an impossibly large increase in marking time at one or two points in the year (although this is obviously bad for staff workloads overall).

From an academic perspective all these changes are not wholly desirable but we have lived with them for several years now and continuing on with them and with more students on some courses is the least bad choice in the current financial climate universities are facing.

While not especially relevant to students applying this year, the bigger picture at many of the top universities is that the increase in numbers overall and focussed on some courses is actually part of an incremental trend of increasing numbers that started with the removal of the numbers cap, so these universities and specific courses within them are always doing a bit of adjusting to having more students than before and are well-practiced in it. This year, these universities were moreso caught out by the scale of the necessary increases not becoming completely clear until well into the academic year, which impacted on the admissions process and the need to accept people with dropped grades, rather than by a general idea that popular course at top universities might be able to increase their numbers a bit year on year by making more offers. There is also the question of what impact the international student levy might have on international numbers in the coming years, how much international PGT numbers might recover with the resolution of some visa issues and how the proposed quality cap in the recent white paper might play out, all of which will push universities towards temporary workarounds rather than big changes at the moment. Similarly, at the university level, for many universities any increase in total student numbers and attendant demand for the library, support services and so on will only be temporary while they teach out the students on the courses they are now closing.

WonkyTree25 · 26/10/2025 08:00

Fleurdelise that's great your DD still got her place.

PhPhion your insights are so illuminating, thank you for taking the time to share - especially in seeing the bigger picture on how with the advent of technology some unis can expand with existing resource and the tweaks to teaching to accomodate the students impacted by lockdown teaching.

I am just feeling so cautious after watching DS' friend group - none of the 7 expected to be in clearing in 22, only one of them got their firm offer. Missing medicine offers and vet offers seems a particularly cruel blow, and it has had real consequences which although ironed out (two took courses in clearing without seeing the unis and ultimately dropped out and reapplied to less competitive courses at their preferred unis, one retook their A levels, one went abroad for their medical training, and two took completely unrelated courses to their interests, for most of them its been fine but there were quite a few low points on the way). But anticipating for four or five months where you will be headed and then wrapping your head around being somewhere completely different in a matter of weeks, is tough on top of the normal anxietiess of leaving home. DD and I had looked at courses in clearing last summer to help with backup plans but she has since changed her course preference so that advanced planning didn't quite work out!!

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PerpetualOptimist · 26/10/2025 08:44

@Phphion explanations are very clear and very helpful - giving context concerning recent years and 2025 in particular.

I think, from a student and parental perspective, a key issue is still very much the accuracy of teachers' predictions (a tough ask imo), how those are communicated and how students use those to decide course choices and what to firm and insure (another tough ask). Many schools are dealing with teacher changes and shortages and with successive cohorts affected by Covid in different ways. It would be interesting to know whether 'predictive powers' have worsened in recent times.

In addition, the grade system at GCSE and A level (rather than point score) can present prospective candidates as very different, when in reality they are not. My children hovered at the boundaries of certain grades across lots of subjects at both GCSE and A level and had to be aware of that when thinking about likely exam outcomes.

Rocknrollstar · 26/10/2025 08:47

It’s a long time ago, but for what it is worth, DS dropped a grade due to serious illness but still got his place at Cambridge. However, his sister missed one of her grades and was rejected by Sheffield and went to Birmingham, had a good time and did very well.

Fleurdelise · 26/10/2025 09:08

PerpetualOptimist · 26/10/2025 08:44

@Phphion explanations are very clear and very helpful - giving context concerning recent years and 2025 in particular.

I think, from a student and parental perspective, a key issue is still very much the accuracy of teachers' predictions (a tough ask imo), how those are communicated and how students use those to decide course choices and what to firm and insure (another tough ask). Many schools are dealing with teacher changes and shortages and with successive cohorts affected by Covid in different ways. It would be interesting to know whether 'predictive powers' have worsened in recent times.

In addition, the grade system at GCSE and A level (rather than point score) can present prospective candidates as very different, when in reality they are not. My children hovered at the boundaries of certain grades across lots of subjects at both GCSE and A level and had to be aware of that when thinking about likely exam outcomes.

Edited

I think schools need to make the system clearer to parents and provide data when they discuss predicted grades and accuracy. A friend of mine had no knowledge of the fact that only a small percentage of PGs are achieved on results day. Consequently, they encouraged their child to firm and insure two Unis in the top 5 rankings even though the pupil never got those grades in mocks. Obviously this led to results day disappointment which made me question why the school support did not challenge and discuss the application.

Igmum · 26/10/2025 09:21

They may have done Fleur, at the end of the day a school can’t force a child/parent not to apply to specific universities.

@Phphionis right, universities have lost (reduced) a key revenue stream and are looking to recruit students where they can. Many are in financial trouble. This is likely to be reflected in grade offers and leniency to those who didn’t get predicted grades. In fairness we have always tried to give leeway to students who don’t get PGs. They are committed and far more likely to stay than students who arrive through clearing. Practical constraints (timetable, room size, space on campus) means this is not always possible. I suspect this year is more likely to be generous than strict with places. Good luck.

WombatChocolate · 26/10/2025 09:33

Yes, over 80% of predicted grades are wrong, with most being too generous.

These days, apart from the handful of most popular courses at the most popular unis, having the predicted grades that meet the standard offer, will result in an offer. And if it’s missed by a grade, most will still get in. So in many ways the predicted grades become more important than achieved grades.

For v popular courses at the v top unis, to get the offer you often need in excess of the standard offer in predicted grades. Given that’s the case, many offer holders can drop below their predicted grades and still meet their offer. This then leads to fewer who miss the standard offer being accepted on results day…..but by varying amounts which are hard to predict each year.

Thingsto consider when applying - is the student looking at courses where they just meet their standard offer in terms of predicted grades or do they exceed it, or exceed it by some margin? Clearly, the latter gives more scope for ‘underperforming’ but still being accepted.

Hard to know in advance, but if the subject to be studied is likely to be the weakest A Level which misses the standard offer, others who miss their grades but achieve the offer in that subject are more likely to be higher up the priority list on results day.

Yes, ask teachers just how ‘aspirational’ is the predicted grade. Sometimes it’s hard for teachers to know, esp in colleges with big classes where knowing students personally after just 8 months, is v hard. In some schools which have stronger knowledge of individual students, the predicted grades might be based on more knowledge. Some routinely significantly over predict and others less-so. GCSEs are a good indicator of A Level performance - 7s are unlikely to result in A star at A level in that subject. You have to be realistic.

But at the same time, for most courses at most places there is flex and unis prefer to take a firmed student who missed a grade who visited, made accommodation choices and wants to come, rather than go to Clearing, esp when they know other unis will be doing the same and although there will be some v strong candidates in clearing, unis will be fighting for them and they may well go elsewhere. So being ambitious with the firm choice does seem the right way to go. Even with Insurance too. There are likely to be good ‘deals’ in Clearing and increasingly it’s not just for those who’ve totally bombed out, but a serious 2nd round of applications with stuff available at all levels. Yes, stressful for a few days probably. But it’s there. Why not be ambitious rather than cautious. Within reason it pays off for many.

PerpetualOptimist · 26/10/2025 10:15

Certainly for my children's comp and attached sixth form, the communication about predictions was probably as good as it could be, and supported by statistics pertinent to the child as well as illuminating the picture at a national level.

Nevertheless, some students and parents did not necessarily pick up fully on the advice and teacher changes between Y12 and Y13 and/or teachers new to the school and/or all the things that can happen including the competing claims of social group dynamics, relationships, health, paid work etc etc., made the task harder still.

As @WombatChocolate highlights, the time 'window' for a teacher to make realistic predictions is very tight and prior to those crucial final months in Y13. Furthermore, I am sure our comp, with a very wide socio-economic intake, had to be careful to balance realism, grounded in stats, with the need to ensure students did not self-limit in terms of aspirations.