How accurate were your DC predicted grades?

[Evisam]

They say only 17% of DC meet or exceed their predicted grades. Are schools way off in their predictions?

So how accurate were your DC predicted grades?
I'll start:

Predicted: A star, A star, A
Received: AAA

(over-predicted by 2 grades, accepted at 1st place university with offer of AAA)

Two years ago DS was predicted A*AA and needed that for his firm choice uni. He got ABB and was taken at his firm.

This year DD was predicted A*AA and her firm offer was AAA. She got ABC and was taken at her firm. I don’t know of anyone in her cohort who actually hit their predicted grades.

The problem is that predictions can never be reliable, however well teachers know the kids. In the end of the day, the student whose most likely grade is an A may work hard, have a good day and get an A*, or may struggle with the last few topics in the course, have a bad day and get a B.
Schools mostly overpredict, because if a student misses out on an offer because their predictions were too low, but then gets the grades, it would feel like they stopped them getting in. If they think they might get the higher grade on a good day, then that tends to be what goes down, especially if they know that the student is keen to go somewhere that wants the higher grade.
Sensible schools tell students their "most likely grades" as well as their "predicted grades for UCAS". If the former is AAB and the latter is BBC, then the student knows that they should make sure that their insurance offer is at most BBC.

Predicted A star, A, A
Needed ABB for firm, which was a contextual offer due to high school he attended up to year 11, and the sixth form college having low outcomes
Achieved BBB, he was disappointed but his firm choice accepted him anyway so it didn’t matter

Edited to add that there were serious disruptions to one of his exams too and he was given special consideration and his firm uni were aware of this

Oftem schools know that typically X achieve grade A star, or whatever grade. And there could be double that number of students or more who might be the ones to get it…or not. They simply don’t know. So in fairness all need it as a PG of A star.

In the past, schools seemed to want to avoid any over prediction, in case the student didn’t get their uni place and parents blamed them for over prediction. But today, so many are accepted with a grade or 2 or more even below, that fear seems more unfounded. But it generates a problem for unis of so many over predictions. I guess for most unis it really is about bums in seats more than quality.

Reading MN about predictions before UCAS and you’ll get a sense most schools are mean in their predictions and DC are denied what they are capable of. But come results day, most haven’t achieved all their PGs. There are some who were under predicted and perhaps we hear disproportionately about them.

It reminds me of 2021 when it was the 2nd Covid year and a free for all with teacher grades. The only thing teachers could do was allocate the top grades to everyone who had a chance of achieving it. As with predictions, it was impossible to say for certain out of a large group of possibles, who would be the ones to actually achieve it. So they all had to have it. And then chaos ensued as top unis had far too many students because they were legally committed to everyone who had an offer. At least with predictions, unis are free to choose how many offers to make, and how many who miss their offer to accept. That’s essentially how most are managing their numbers now.

My dd is going into u6. Her academically selective independent under predicts at the top end. She is doing end y12 resits in September as she needs a star predictions. Has generally been working at that level throughout but exams were borderline and they won’t grade up without the resit. Lots of them in her position. Part of me wonders if it’s to get them revising all summer.

Predicted AAA, late February mocks were BBD (eek, but she conceded she didn’t study when shut away in her bedroom). 1st choice Uni was AAB offer (which did drop to ABB in clearing).

Teachers assured DD she had the ability but needed to put some effort in. Luckily she teamed up with some aspiring medics and they all shut themselves in the local library 6 days/week.

She was delighted to come out with AAA (and a new boyfriend she met at the library!).

Just misreading one or two sentences in an exam paper, or misjudging time, can make a massive difference to the outcome. I can’t help thinking that they should shift the Uni start dates back a couple of weeks/months and make offers based on actual grades.

Do you mean they both got in where they wanted despite getting lower than their offer grade? I’m hearing that happen more this year and didn’t realise it was a thing that could happen. Gives me a bit more hope for DD next year!

I'm 24. I'll tell you about mine.

4Astars predicted

Real thing. A*AAA

Parents were happy that I got into my uni but I got a talking to because "anyone can get 1Astar 3As, had you worked harder you could have got 4Astars"

Even though I still got into Oxford for E&M.

UCAS predictions are meant to be aspirational I think, which is why so many don't make them? (I think it's a shame that's not always made clear to students).

DD's school weren't a fan of the "aspirational" prediction so predicted her AAA, which DD and I both thought was conservative, whereas she actually got A*AA.

Well done on your results and your place at Oxford.

I think it's a shame that lots of parents demoralise their young people by considering anything less than perfection to be "failure".

I can beat your story with my niece - predicted 4 A stars. Got 3 A stars and an A (and her place at Cambridge). To hear the resulting discussion, you would have thought she'd failed all her A Levels.

Just to throw a curve ball in here…..my DFD has got into uni to do bio medical science with one gcse at grade 5, 3 GCSEs at grade 3 and an awarded grade 4 plus 2 (good) pass BTECs in beauty courses. Not an A level in sight.

I got a 2.1 and not a first. I was pressured to do a master's and not allowed to do the one where I actually was super passionate about the course and would have enjoyed doing it. I hated every single day of the masters but scraped a merit by the skin of my teeth.

Parents were happy that my dissertation score was low. (High 50s), my exam grade average was around 65 ish so that brought up the total score

Apologies for the question - What is DFD?

DD did biomedical sciences and said that anyone without biology and chemistry A levels would have struggled.

Is your DFD doing a foundation year?

Foster?

Couldn’t agree more.

I’ll share my (potted version) story from 33 years ago.

Predicted 3As. Obviously no such thing as A star back then. I’m leaving out General Studies.

Got ABD. The D was the biggest shock of my short and academically glittering life at the time. Lost my uni offer. Went through clearing and got onto a good Classics course at an RG uni (the A was in Latin). Not what I had originally wanted to study but I went on to get a first. Latin saved my life, it got me an excellent degree which opened doors. If I’d never studied it I would have been fighting to get on competitive English/History/whatever courses which would have been a different story.

My school insisted on a remark, the D became a C and first uni decided they would have me after all but I went with the clearing offer. Best decision I ever made.

On the parental angle, my parents were sad and disappointed, but in the result, never in me. These stories of parents castigating their hardworking kids for getting an A are shameful.

Just to throw a curve ball in here…..my DFD has got into uni to do bio medical science with one gcse at grade 5, 3 GCSEs at grade 3 and an awarded grade 4 plus 2 (good) pass BTECs in beauty courses. Not an A level in sight.

One of my DD's friends who has spent quite a few years in care/foster care dropped out of A levels after Y12 and has got a place at Aber to do a humanities degree.

Predicted 3 Astar and an A.

Got 2 Astar and 2 A which was what they expected. About 3% off the 3rd (and 4th) A *.

Wait, what happened next? They got angry at that one A?

Predicted BCC, got ABB. She told us she could do it and she did!

Yes that’s right, they both got their firm choice even though they both missed the grades in their offers. There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason - we know kids who missed their grades and missed their offers as well but mine got lucky.

Someone in North London got 23 A Levels at A* and A

www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/25394165.britains-smartest-teen-secures-place-oxford-university/

@RampantIvyDFD - foster daughter. I’m so proud. Let’s hope she can keep up - but she loves to learn and studies for fun. Shame the LA and primary school didn’t deal with her better before she lived with me that caused her education to suffer so badly. Fingers crossed.

Predicted A star A star B
Got A*CC
Didn't get into firm (Astar AB offer), was accepted by insurance (ABB offer)
He had a nightmare with one of the FM papers which is probably why the C. Biology the B was always going to be a bit of a stretch
We're proud as he's had a very challenging time with mental health since Yr10. But he's disappointed though seems to be on the up again now

Predicted 3 x A star and 1 x A
Achieved 4 x A star

I think dc was under predicted as he’s quiet and had one blip result in his mock for FM. As it was he was well over the boundary for the A star.

Teacher here, the subject I now teach I was predicted an 'E' in by a teacher who taught me for 5 years and I never complained (I was in top set) even though it was clear that she severely disliked me. Reader: I got an 'A', a 1st in the subject then a distinction in my PGCE. You/your child knows their abilities.