How accurate were your DC predicted grades?

[Evisam]

They say only 17% of DC meet or exceed their predicted grades. Are schools way off in their predictions?

So how accurate were your DC predicted grades?
I'll start:

Predicted: A star, A star, A
Received: AAA

(over-predicted by 2 grades, accepted at 1st place university with offer of AAA)

DS predicted AAB (was going to be ABB and had to talk to his teacher about raising one of the A’s from a B so he could apply to one of his favourite unis). Got AAA.

DS1 Astar, A, A got Astar, Astar A
DS2 Astar, Astar, Astar, A. Got exactly that (in the subjects predicted)
DD AAA got Astar, Astar, A (this summer)
Their school tends to under predict. Unless its blindingly obvious Astars will be hit (Art in DS1s case, Maths, Bio, Chem in DS2 case) they don't predict A stars

DD was predicted ABB and got BCC three years ago.

This wasn't a great surprise to me as she has never revised adequately for exams -her GCSEs were Covid grades so she did well in those.

It's less about laziness than self-sabotage which started in primary school and which I can only hope gets better some day!

Were they

Actual predictions/professional opinion of likely grades
Computer generated aspirational targets (ie, what could happen in one of the top 5% of schools in the country)
Computer generated targets (ie, what could happen in one of the top 50% of schools in the country)

or were they

UCAS predictions, which are meant to help applicants get offers in the first place?

There is a significant difference between all of these.

ETA: sorry, forgot the other type - slightly lower grades because it's psychologically barbaric to set a diligent, stressed kid a target that means anything less than absolute perfection is a failure?

DD predicted A star, A star, A which were ambitious and what she might hope to get if everything went well ( as per school).
Not everything went well but that’s what she ended up getting ( much to her surprise). She was luckily just on the right side of the grade boundaries ( on it for one..).

Older dd
Predicted A A A
Got A A A and 1st choice university

IB rather than A levels, but DS was predicted 776 at HL and 776 at SL and got exactly that.

3 x A star predicted and achieved for DS.

DD is predicted 3 x A star too ….we will see!

Tgey say 80% of PGs are wrong with most too generous. Right at the top end, there is less inaccuracy - I suppose there’s a v large amount of marks above the Astar boundary in most subjects, but only the one grade.

Increasingly there’s an incentive to over-predict. As more places, including top places accept those who misssed their Firm offer to ensure certainty of bums on seats vs less certain Clearing outcomes, predicted grades become ever more important. That fear schools had of students failing to get their firm or Insurance due to missing their offer is less than in the past. Likewise, Clearing seems to have plenty available and the the system is easier to navigate and get outcomes from these days than 20 years ago. People are sorted before the weekend or even end of Thursday. It’s amazing how many thousands can be processed so fast.

I suppose the really elite that can be very choosy (not that many in reality …and often not for all their courses) might have to increasingly use admissions tests to differentiate students.

Very. But I thought they were aspirational based on potential rather than yr12 performance. And a couple were bumped up for UCAS application.
However DD worked like a dog to get the grades she needed because she got an unexpected offer at her favourite uni - so in terms of making her achieve her potential, it worked. I was nervous before results day though!

Exactly this. Got UCAS predictions of AAA after a relatively easy mock exam and one of the As felt like an over prediction. Last report showed most likely to achieve grades as AAA and this is exactly what DD got and is overjoyed with

Scotland here so highers

predicted AAAAB
got AAAAA (eldest)

predicted BCC
got ABC (youngest)

Just seen a really sad post on the Wiwikau group on Facebook about a yp who had an offer from. Oxford,was predicted A*AA and ended up with CCD!
Luckily it seems he is resilient and philosophical about it and managed to get a place at York, but blimey what a drop in grades...
Just shows you can never be complacent.

7 years ago for DD. Predicted AAA, achieved AAA.

Dear God what is with Mumsnet? Are all the parents of A star children on here? Ffs there is such a thing as a C, a D, even, heaven forfend, an E….

UCAS predictions were: A, A, A star
The ‘most likely’ grades given in April 2025 were: A, B, A star (which we’d have been delighted with)
Achieved: A star, A star, A (which we are unbelievably delighted with!)

I’ve kept the subject order for easy comparison. After opening the results, YP revealed that they’d decided “to try something different in the exam” for the subject where they were most likely to be a B (and had got 33/80 on a past paper) - which clearly worked out as they got 70/80 on that paper and an A star overall - but I’m so blummin’ glad they didn’t tell me this before results day as I was anxious enough!!!

Dear God what is with Mumsnet? Are all the parents of A star children on here? Ffs there is such a thing as a C, a D, even, heaven forfend, an E….

This is pretty typical for MN! And most will include Maths/FM or Physics😂My DD got a more mixed set of results (including an E for her Spanish speaking exam, thank god for the written bits).

Totally accurate there were only 2 in the year they got wrong, it totally depends if the school go for accurate or if they want students to apply Oxbridge/RG unis so they inflate grades.

My girl got all her predicted grades. In fact I think she was higher in English. She got BBC. She has had a rough couple of years but still got her predicted!

This. Really important distinction to make.

DC had grades predicted in Feb by teachers

C was predicted in one. Got an A
B predicted in another. Got a B
D predicted in third. Got a B

So up four grades over predicted. But missed over 9 months of A level course because of life changing illness. So very pleased

My son's predicted grades were based on mocks under exam conditions, which they had three sets of. So yes very accurate, in fact he exceeded them by one grade

He was predicted A A A and achieved all three A stars

I don't get the maths hate, my son did maths, further maths and physics. It's a classic combination

From last year, not at all. Some/many schools wildly exaggerate in order to win offers. My dd was predicted AAA, achieved BBC. Admittedly, I do think she took her foot off the gas a bit because she had an offer of BBBs, which she thought she would clear easily. But her predicted grades were still noticeably high compared to her regular performance, and I did try to warn her.

Perfect. Predicted AAA, got A*AA