Predicted Grades movement?

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DD got predicted grades today and they're one grade lower than she needs for the courses she's looking at (ABC / 120 points, she needs 128 so AAC or ABB)

School have sent comms out saying 'respect our decision/ don't pressure us to change them' etc etc. But there's 6 months till the forms go in... has anyone been able to pull grades up between predicted and submission? Is there any flex in your experience or is that it?

Need to decide if the approach is acceptance and look around at other options, or pep talk and work hard to pull them up (she's prioritised her pt job this year, defo could have put more in).

If you think she could gain a grade, she could still apply to a couple of AAC/ABB courses. If they are not heavily oversubscribed courses (which they are less likely to be at those grades - we’re not talking 3 x A* at Imperial etc.) then there’s a decent chance she’ll get offers of AAC/AAB, and then it’s on her to get the grades.

She obviously needs to focus on her studies ... You know that, but I suppose it's persuading her of that!

What degree programmes/disciplines is she aiming for? What sorts of universities is she interested in?

Remember too if school won't budge and she believes she can truly exceed them and the predictions are holding her back to specific unis she can take a gap year and then apply with grades in hand.

@YellowAsteroid she's looking at English lit / English & history joint hons. Liverpool, Sheffield, Cardiff.

Any idea how we find out if those types of courses are fully subscribed or might have clearing places?

The school DH teaches at often offers a mock in September to deal with this. It’s vanishingly rare that any student outperforms their predicted grade (most fall shy by a grade or two). His view is ‘prove us wrong and apply post A-levels’. His school are rarely wrong about the candidates who cause most grief. And usually the candidates make or fall short. He’s also happy to share such analysis going back years (obviously anonymised) as he uses it to hold Heads of Dept to account for predictions.

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I'd be very surprised if her current predictions didn't get her offers from most if not all of those three. I'd always suggest putting down one lower, but realistically Cardiff and Liverpool often accept a dropped grade.

English is often popular, but is offered in most places and doesn’t require specialised teaching rooms or labs, so there tends to be a bit more flexibility on numbers (compared to some courses).

Thanks for the insight. We're not planning on causing grief for the school at all. Just processing and trying to understand the lie of the land and next steps.

Friend at a different school and they do September resits of mocks for a second stab at it for that reason.

This is only my DCs' school obvs but DS2 had a very low prediction for his PE in summer of year 12 - not enough focus on his work - and it bucked him up (as he needed an A for his uni prefs); he asked the dept what he needed to do, did it, and got the A PG by October (ended up getting the A grade in the summer too). Not saying this is the issue with your DD btw.

Otoh as others say, I also know of several students who begged and pleaded for a higher PG, got it and then failed to achieve anything like it in the exams.

I agree tho, I think there may well be some flex on those grades. DD got into uni for Eng lit with BCC (on clearing, but I imagine if she had listed it on her form they would ave taken her) on a course with a book offer of ABB.

It’s vanishingly rare that any student outperforms their predicted grade (most fall shy by a grade or two). His view is ‘prove us wrong and apply post A-levels’.

I'd second this from the university admissions POV.

Don't forget that Clearing now includes Adjustment which means that some good courses are available for pupils who exceeded their predictions.

For English lit / English & history joint honours her choices are good, although she might want to look at smaller places with excellent records: Lancaster or Sussex, for example.

However, going for a joint honours programme in two popular subjects may be the restriction here. It's why I suggest Lancaster or Sussex, as they are still (vaguely) committed to embedding interdisciplinary (more accurately cross-disciplinary) studies at undergrad level.

I would also expect that universities will show flexibility when it comes to grades. There has been a huge fall in the number of applications for English Lit degrees in the last decade or so, numbers have almost halved in this period.

Adjustment doesn't exist any more. Lancs and Suss good shouts though.

Is there a procedure? Dc’s school had it set out in writing. Some kids will be studying this summer if they have additional exams for uni entrance so it’s possible grades will go up.
DD’s school had timed assessments in September. If they had evidence of higher grades then there was a green slip appeal type process. They wouldn’t budge for parental pressure obviously but there was a mechanism to pick up kids who had for example been tutored over summer.

My best advice to you OP is to pressure the school. Your DD get’s one shot. The predicted grades are a critical gate. Taking a gap year does not suit all children, and every year of a person’s life is precious.

I’ll give you my DD’s story. Just one data point, but hopefully useful.

DD was predicted A*AB at the end of year 12. (Her GCSE’s were all teacher assessed at the end of year 11. All 8s and 9s, one 7.) She had not been externally marked since SATs at the end of year 6.

DH, DD and I felt this was wrong, bit did not like to be pushy. We tend to defer to the school. We did ask the teachers if she could sit a new mock at the end of the summer.

Come September she was reassessed as Astar-AstarA. In the event she achieved three high A stars.

She did not go to her first choice uni. She is flying st her second choice with plenty of accolades and opportunities. Sometimes she feels academically unchallenged, though. I cannot imagine how bored and frustrated. she would be if she had to apply with A*AB.

So my advice would be to fight for your child. It’s a rotten system. I don’t blame the teachers. They are un a difficult position. But I wouldn’t put their comfort and convenience before my child’s best interest.

Sorry, typing on a phone and had to edit due to fat fingers.

You don't mention if you think those predicted grades are reasonable?
Predicted grades for UCAS are generally aspirational, so it may be the school has already built in a degree of flexibility.

Seems very early for predicted grades - I know DC's school used November mocks to inform them (other than for those with early entry courses). I imagineif your DC was able to demonstrate she was capable of more and then ask for predicted grades to be reviewed, that might be favourably received?

Uniguide tells you the typical profile of a student on university course (which is of course, different to what a university might offer, but may give you an idea). At any rate, there is no harm in applying for some universities that look for over predicted grades, as long as DD lists some safer options as well.

At DS’ sixth form, if students think their predicted grades are wrong they have to prove it by outperforming them in the autumn term. Is that an option?

Have you evidence of work at a higher level from during the year?

There are a couple of things to consider. Firstly, that choices of uni need to be based on the predictions given and not the other way round. So, if school think these are predictions of what she can achieve in a good day, it’s better not to over-stretch and be disappointed by failing significantly to achieve the required grades to be accepted.

However, at the same time, it is worth checking if the predicted grades are actually the best they feel she’s capable of…based on evidence she has produced through work in yr12. Schools and colleges will always suggest parents don’t challenge grades or push for more….because it’s no good if everyone does. However, they will actually expect that there are some challenges and they will move on some of them…..if good reasoning can be provided. Good reasoning isn’t ‘those are the grades X uni requires’. Good reasoning can be to evidence earlier work in the year at a higher standard, or if the grades achieved in the mocks just missed the next grade cut-off. Being willing to sit another paper in Sept, even if the school/college don’t sit them generally can help. Equally, if the school don’t plan to send all the applications by Oct half term, but closer to Christmas, asking if a review can be done later in the autumn term is worth it.

So I would suggest getting in touch have a discussion with Head of 6th Form about your specific child, what they have achieved so far and to understand if this really is the final final prediction or whether some movement might be possible. Until you have that conversation, you won’t know. I’d only pursue this, if you think there is a really good reason why the grades should be higher or are very likely to be higher in the end….not just that a place she’s set her heart on needs higher grades.

It is true though, that higher predictions can result in offers given, which wouldn’t be made with lower grades. And most places for most courses will show some flexibility if the grades are narrowly missed. As has been said, statistically, most students do t achieve their predictions. So bear in mind that schools and colleges tend to be over generous, not overly mean.

Thanks everyone for your considered replies, really appreciated.

She hasn't given even 80% in Y12, her B she was aiming for an A. The C is fair I think.

Disappointed though she is, it's given a kick up the proverbial to pull it together. If she gets the current predicted's having put her best foot forward, then we can live with that, it's the not having given it all that stings.

She has a plan to get her shit together over the summer, revision notes, re-reading etc and then will approach teacher for the B subject to see if they will re-evaluate. I've said I'll stay out of it, it's on her to make her pitch and then convince them by demonstrating in her work (ie she takes ownership for the negotiation and the delivery, I can't do it for her).

Over summer we'll look at courses / unis at range of book offers and keep an open mind.

Thanks again.

The thing is, schools and colleges can only predict based on what they’ve seen and know.

Huge numbers of students have worked at less than full capacity in yr12 or believe they will do loads better the following year. They’d like higher predicted grades. But again, evidence suggests the vast majority achieve below their predicted grades. This uplift they expect doesn’t materialise for the majority.

For anyone reading this thread in future or with a child who’s just done GCSE, the message as they start yr12 has to be that this isn’t the time to coast. Yr12 in some ways counts for more than yr13. It is their work in yr12 that determines their predicted grades and therefore the offers they receive. Schools and colleges do emphasise this again and again, but many young people don’t seem able to take it on board…..hence the yearly requests for higher predictions based on the fact they haven’t worked at full capacity and are sure they can do better.

The best thing I’ve seen done for yr12s, is an assembly where some students from yr13 spoke in about October. When they said that their work from yr12 was now determining where they could apply, somehow the yr12s seemed to take more notice, than to teachers.

The thing is, students feel relieved to have GCSEs out of the way. They think sixth form is a lengthy thing with exams far off in the future. They don’t realise it’s 18 months really, with what happens in the first 9 months or so impacting uni applications. They really have to hit the ground running. Often parents and even schools and colleges want to ease them into 6th form life and study. One minute they are talking about ‘stepping up to A Levels’ and finding their way, and it feels like the next week, there’s talk of where do they want to go to uni and what open days they’ve booked.
Working hard, doing well in the key assessment points and starting on the wider reading/listening/visiting etc that will enhance their personal statement is all vital from early on. The best and most informed students are doing it all from the start of yr12, not cottoning on in the following July or September.

The alternative for students in OP's DC's position (where they may have coasted and underperformed in Year 12, but may make significant improvement in Year 13) is to take a gap year and apply with grades in hand. In fact if she thinks this might be the case, it might be better to make this Plan A, rather than Plan B, so that a constructive plan for the gap year can be made and it feels more like a "wanted to do this" rather than a fallback.

Yes, applying with grades in hand is an option.

Worth bearing in mind though, that most students achieve less than their predicted grades and when applying with grades in hand have less options available to them because of this. If you miss the standard offer when applying with predicted grades, by a grade or even 2, many courses at many places (not the most popular courses at most popular places) will still take you. But they might not give an offer to a candidate with grades in hand with those lower grades.

Persoanlly, I think it’s worth applying with predicted grades. You can always reapply with grades in hand if you’re one of the few who do better than predicted. You also have the option to enter Clearing to access courses with higher grades requirements than your firm offer. But again, the numbers who are in a position to do this are the small and minority. It honestly doesn’t hurt to apply with predicted grades - nothing is lost. You just can’t know if it will be a year when unis take lots with lower grades, or don’t.

My DD was predicted A star, A, B. She achieved all A stars. She had already decided to not apply til after she got her grades as she could then apply to certain ones not open to her before.
The higher the grade requirement is a clue to how popular the course/uni is.

This is what Cardiff is showing currently for English Literature