I have no skin in this game as mine are all at Uni/just finished. I am really wondering why so many young people predicted the top grades didnt just miss out by one or two marks but one or two grades. Is this because the teachers predictions about the grades that they would get were wildly wrong or was it the exams themselves. Having seen and read plenty on the teacher predicted grades which saw so many more predicting A/A (almost 50% 2 years ago according to the graphs) I do wonder if there is a private/state school divide here too and that many who have missed their predicted wildly are at private/grammar schools and not state.*
@mummymeister For me as a teacher (state) the issue with predicted grades for UCAS is that they are never really intended to be totally accurate. At work, I'm told to predict for a "best day/realistic-optimistic" scenario, which I'm not against, but it doesn't reflect reality. If you take a student who's got As and Bs all year, then it's not unrealistic they could get an A- if they have a really bad day (some do) then they might end up with a C. But I'll put the A down for UCAS.
We know our students are competing with students from other schools who are predicting for them in a similar way. If we went totally realistic, we'd disadvantage our students. We also have a local(ish) med school who says students don't get interviews without an A prediction, and that puts a lot of pressure on us. I've definitely given out A predictions in the past which I felt were a real stretch, if the student otherwise had strong GCSEs and a good UCAT. I've made it clear to everyone I believe the prediction is a stretch, but I'm doing it to give them a chance at that med school. Maybe it's the wrong thing to do, but there's often a lot of parental pressure and pressure from above me.
We also know so many students get in having missed their offer that it really is better just to get them the offer in the first place.
The whole system is a bit of a mess, really, but it should be made clear to everyone when predictions are made that it's an optimistic prediction, rather than a realistic idea of what I think they will actually get. I use reports (which my students will get twice in Y13) to report what I think they will actually get- and obviously I talk to my students all the time about their grades.
I do think this year it's clear in some subjects there has been a wider spread of ability than before, which is maybe throwing up some unusual results.