How hard is it actually to get offers?

[redskytwonight]

Just wondering ...

I'd perhaps naively assumed that DD would have no trouble getting university offers for her universities of choice, but having spent too much time on here and in WIWIKAU it now seems that even stellar students are not getting offers so I'm starting to worry.

She's not applying for medicine/vet/extremely popular/Oxbridge courses.
Her GCSEs are good although not by MN standards (i.e. not all 9s and even include a 5!).

She's predicted Astar A A with the A star in the degree subject she's applying for.
Her other 2 subjects are known to be ones where it's difficult to get an A star.
She's likely to get an A star in her EPQ (submitted already).

Her 2 top choice universities both make standard offers of AAA. One reduces to AAB with an A at EPQ.

Likely to get offers, or does she still need a following wind?

As others have said the factors affecting offers vary. DD applied for an arts subject to one very aspirational university, another very popular Uni, two other RG universities and one Red Brick. Offer in from Red Brick and one RG within two weeks. One on advertised offer day in Jan, the others late Spring. It was a good moral boost to have at least one in the bag early in the process so I would say do consider that ‘banker’ that they’d still like to go to, it helped DD with the wait, mocks etc.

Friends DCs studying maths and applied mostly only to top Unis invariably got 3 out of 5 offers, Law three or four out of 5 (especially if put Oxbridge as one choice), Economics was a mixed bag depending on which unis applied for, if only the very top then 2 or 3 out of 5, if had been wider in reach then all 5.

So in summary- it varies!

It’s also not true engineering courses at all RG unis are very competitive. They are not.

True, it's probably mostly just oxbridge and imperial where an applicant with good predicted grades might not get an offer.

I think this webpage is quite enlightening: Offer rates
But it doesn’t break down by subject. Economics seems very competitive at LSE, UCL, St Andrews, Durham, Edinburgh, Warwick. Oxford and Cambridge with lots of applicants predicted or having achieved 3 or 4 A*s being rejected. But other good universities are not so competitive for economics in particular and of course it varies by subject.

DS's friend with a string of 9s and all A star predictions got 4 rejections for economics.

Thanks for all the insights - it sounds like DD should be ok (she is interested in English or possibly English and History, for those wondering) although an interesting point regarding proportion of International students. Will definitely be doing some research.

DD is also extremely pragmatic and is planinng to apply to a range of universities (going down to standard offers of BBC with A at EPQ) so I am hoping there is no danger that she won't get any offers - although of course her 2 favourites are looking for the highest grades.

I really doubt she needs to go as low as BBC.

English is not a popular subject with international students, I think.

Some good advice above. Predicted grades that meet entrance requirements should get an applicant into all but the most competitive courses/universities.

It is worth checking individual University websites. If the course is competitive they will probably tell you. For example “LSE is a highly competitive institution. The high level of competition means that achieving, or being predicted to achieve, our usual standard offer grades does not guarantee that an offer of admission will be made. In 2021, we received approximately 26,000 applications for roughly 1,700 places. This fierce competition for places means that every year we unfortunately have to disappoint many applicants.”

But….an applicant has five choices. Unless they opt for five very competitive courses (and are ready to take a gap year and reapply) they should get at least one offer.

As long as you are a bit careful, there is no need to worry.

Quite a number of really good students with excellent GCSEs and predicted three or four A stars at DCs school this year only got their fourth or fifth choice – not just for things like maths and economics, but subjects like history as well. It then turned out they didn’t really want those choices, they put them down as filler and so quite a few are now planning gap years and reapplications. I would definitely drum this in that you might end up with toys for five, so make sure you actually like them – in DD‘s case she decided to put down a prestigious university as choice 3 (having failed oxbridge) now results day is approaching has decided she doesn’t actually like choice 3 - which is now her fallback - and just went there because it sounded good and is trying to ask a less prestigious university that she prefers if they’ll have her (if she doesn’t make grades for choice 2). But it’s very hard, if you are predicted top grades, you have some justification in hoping that that you will end up at least one of choices one or two, and many people will understandably be wedded to only a couple of universities, and what a student decides to put on UCAS in - say - October maybe no relation to how they feel in the summer. If she’s doing an English subject, she should definitely get offers though ….

The key is to have a couple of middle choices you will go to. Putting down firm favourites that all want AAA or above leaves little wriggle room if the other two are not remotely what you want. Being pragmatic about the “middle two” courses is the best way to go. So two reasonably ambitious, two you would go to and one maybe if all else fails. English and History have always been popular but some RG unis are mite popular than others!

Maybe hedge your bets. DS made an early Oct application (not oxbridge) to 4x favourite uni/courses. He could then get on with y13, see what offers did/didn't come through, and how yr13 was going before adding a final choice just prior to jan deadline.

He received 2x quick offers, his favourite hadn't replied by end Jan, so he added an extra application at favourite uni for a similar course there.

This can work. You have five choices but do not need to put all of them down at once, so it is perfectly possible to hold back a couple of options, as long as you apply before the deadline in January.

Universities are legally required to give equal treatment to any applicant who applies before the January deadline. (Exceptions being Oxbridge and medicine.) Schools may discourage it as they like UCAS stuff out of the way but if your DC is unsure about course or university or whether they might be accepted, it is an option.

Competition has intensified for universities and courses perceived as prestigious and/or gateways to lucrative careers. Several factors are at play. In the short term, the spike in top grades 2020-22 has meant more students have considered applying for competitive courses they might have otherwise discounted in the past.

Over the longer term, cumulative work in raising uni choice aspirations in the non-selective state sector may be paying off and this aspect is not simply restricted to those benefitting specifically from widening participation programmes.

The practical point is that applicants need to be flexible and open minded about which unis they may well thrive at. Unlike OP's case, too often I see and hear of situations where students and parents focus aspirations on an incredibly narrow set of universities, to the extent that even insurance choices are made half-heartedly and potentially without visits or much investigation.

Set against that, there are clearly lots of applicants (and teachers advising them) who appreciate there needs to be a considered approach to using those 'five choices' wisely.

Where I think it is difficult is if a student's performance during A-levels is variable or accelerates at a late stage because there is pressure from colleges, schools and peers to crystalise decisions at the beginning of Y13; understanding the realistic span of options available can be hard in those circumstances. Obviously there is scope for deferred entry but that, in itself, is yet another decision that has to be taken with care and, ideally, some realistic planning.

Although you have 5 choices, ultimately you are only left with 2 (firm and insurance)

There is no point holding on to 2x safe, 2x aspirational etc. So by only applying to 3 or 4 initially, if you have received a quick offer from your safe option, you can use the remaining application space however you need (eg, an extra aspirational, or if you have had an unexpected rejection, you can re-assess with your final application).

If you submit all 5 choices in one go, you lose your opportunity to further maximise your chances of offers.

OP, I am a university lecturer in English. Not many overseas students do English (or History either).

@redskytwonight is there a reason that she is looking as low as BBC? That is quite a drop from her predicted A star AA. What does her sixth form suggest as an insurance? A one grade drop on each subject would be ABB.

If you want to say what her uni choices might be then there might be a more specific response especially when it comes to the AAA compared to the BBC entry requirement universities and how far apart they are on the league tables.

There are certain unis that will be popular for English. Eg Oxbridge, Durham and York plus probably UCL, Kings, Edinburgh and If she’s not looking at Oxbridge, then don’t put 4 high end unis plus a BBC offer. Look for a couple of middle ground. Sometimes adding film to English helps. Or see whether joint honours or era of history might make a difference.

Years ago a friend of DDs got no offers for English. A bit odd as she was a very good candidate. She eventually took Southampton in clearing but added film. She was happy with that snd has not looked back. I’d not necessarily recommend clearing now due to housing but be canny with applications.

It's not at all my field but I vaguely remember from a thread a few years ago that some of the highly rated English courses aren't in that 'usual suspects' list. Might have been eg Birmingham and one of the south wales ones mentioned at the time.
(This sort of thing applies to most subjects/unis, of course)

And performing or visual arts subjects are often found in completely different places to the usual suspects!

Have a look at where is in clearing for English this year that she would be happy with and include one or two of those on the application. Nottingham is there asking for AAA among a few others at a range of grades.

I'm a bit surprised Nottingham is AAA in clearing tbh.

It's certainly decent for English. It's outranked by Birmingham, Leeds , Warwick , Lancaster I'd say for English, specifically . Birmingham is an excellent choice at AAB with reduction for EPQ and Lancaster, also AAB has degree flexibility that would allow for English and history modules.

Someone with OP's DD's grades should definitely be looking at those unis as a main or insurance choice.

I kind of imagine that's why Nottingham ends up in clearing for English and Birmingham doesn't.

Thanks again for responses - it's really useful to hear all these insights.

DD's school has recommended one aspirational, 3 middling and 1 safe. I think (on the basis of her predicted grades and that some universities will offer lower for high EPQ) that she doesn't really have an aspirational but does have 2 top choices in line with her predicted grades.

She had a bit of a nightmare with her History GCSE - she froze on one paper and ended up with a lower grade than anyone had expected. It's rather knocked her confidence (especially as she's taking it as an A Level subject), hence wanting to be sure she has a very safe university on her list - although if she doesn't choose it as firm or insurance it does seem unnecessary. Having read some of the responses on here, maybe she would be better just to apply to 4 univerities and leave a "just in case" gap.

The 3 universities definitely on her list are Warwick (AAA or Astar A B), York (AAA) and Birmingham (AAB). Both York and Birmingham have confirmed they definitely give a grade lower offers with a high EPQ (and she'll get her EPQ results this August so ahead of the UCAS process). She's unsure about the other 2 choices at the moment between a few options (some mentioned on here!)

Nottingham is in a rather sadly unique position this year. I don’t know DCs who went or applied but I know parents who have DCs who have been applying this year and discouraged DCs from applying to Notts due to the sad tragedy that happened there. So don’t think it is necessarily a typical year for either of the universities in that town. 😥

Sounds like she's already made some good picks!

I think one reason for using all 5 choices is if there are likely to be offer holders days when they can get a better feel for the department, accommodation etc. than in the mass of open day. Those things may validly influence the final choice of firm and insurance. And imo if things were to go tits up at A level, then if one of the ones she's had on that list as a 'safety' option is in clearing, it may make it easier iyswim.