How hard is it actually to get offers?

[redskytwonight]

Just wondering ...

I'd perhaps naively assumed that DD would have no trouble getting university offers for her universities of choice, but having spent too much time on here and in WIWIKAU it now seems that even stellar students are not getting offers so I'm starting to worry.

She's not applying for medicine/vet/extremely popular/Oxbridge courses.
Her GCSEs are good although not by MN standards (i.e. not all 9s and even include a 5!).

She's predicted Astar A A with the A star in the degree subject she's applying for.
Her other 2 subjects are known to be ones where it's difficult to get an A star.
She's likely to get an A star in her EPQ (submitted already).

Her 2 top choice universities both make standard offers of AAA. One reduces to AAB with an A at EPQ.

Likely to get offers, or does she still need a following wind?

In my experience of helping students complete UCAS forms, if their predicted grades are higher than standard offers then they are very likely to get at least a couple of offers, unless they're applying to a very selective course (medicine, economics, engineering at RG+ unis, for instance) or an arts course which requires an audition/performance/portfolio. I wouldn't worry! (Easier said than done.)

It depends which unis and which course she is applying for.
If a course is very popular, the uni can't offer a place to everyone who applies, even if their grade predictions meet the standard offer - if they all met the offer, there wouldn't be enough places!
Do you know whether the courses are ones which actually look at the personal statements? If so, can your DD show her interest in the subject beyond her A levels?

Still, do make sure that there is at least one "safety net" place on the UCAS form, maybe ABB in your DD's case?

She should be fine with what you've described.
Usual advice is to select some mix of aspirational, realistic and safety net options, relative to their expected grades but it sounds like her top two choices are entirely realistic anyway.

Re what you read here and elsewhere - don't forget you're more likely to see threads and discussions when there's a problem or potential problem.

Thinking about it, I've processed the UCAS forms for well over 100 students in my career (eek!) and the only one who got no offers was a medic.

They can and often do offer to everyone often! Don't forget applicants pick 5 initially and only go to one!

It's getting harder all the time. My kid, a full hand of top grades at both GCSE and A Level, was rejected from their top choices but offered a place at others.
My take home - research how competitive the course entry is (varies from 5% offer rate for Comp Sci or Economics & Management to above 50% for Classics or Modern Languages - all Uni dependent), check what percentage of overseas students are on that course (eg LSE is 75% so it's REALLY hard for home students to get a place) and be realistic about the options - our school said to be sure that you would be happy with all five of your choices as getting the top 1 or 2 is no longer guaranteed with the most popular courses.
Your kid will get a place but it may not be at their top choice so being flexible, realistic (so they don't feel like they have failed) and doing the research is key.

5% offer rate for computing, management - where did you get that from.

As @blithely has already mentioned, it's worth investigating how popular the course is with international applicants - uniguide can help you here.

My DS had predicted grades above the typical offers for A&F for both Durham and Edinburgh but didn't get offers, with the reason cited for both being "too much competition".

Retrospectively, he discovered the ratio of UK:Non UK students on these courses is typically 1:3

They can and often do offer to everyone often! Don't forget applicants pick 5 initially and only go to one!

This is why the statistics such as applicant to offer and acceptance rate can be quite misleading. A good course requiring AAA will be attracting a spread of applicants, for some it will be realistic but others it will be their aspirational or one of their safety net options. The 'aspirationals' may not get an offer or may not make the grades and get a place; the 'safety net' ones will likely get an offer that they don't take.

It's also good to use "discoveruni.gov.uk" for research, it's where uniguide and other sites get their data, but includes even more detail. Uniguide also lumps together small courses more often!

DS got 5/5 offers from RG unis for Eng lit and MFL, on predicted grades of A star A B. Most offers AAB.

The ONLY courses not receiving at least 4/5 offers (assuming predicted grades in line with or exceeding entry requirements, and a GCSE profile suggesting that these predictions are achievable) are Maths, Comp Sci, Engineering at the top RG/ Oxbridge unis for those courses, and (of course) Medicine/ Vet/ Dentistry anywhere. I have seen some rejected when predictions are high, but GCSEs much lower, and with no apparent explanation of the disparity in either personal statement or reference.

I manage > 250 UCAS applications each year. Your child will be fine. It is worth, though, ascertaining how optimistic the predictions are, as this varies from centre to centre.

Also, the ancient Scottish unis get even more income from overseas students than from English ones, and their offers to English students have slumped this year. Edinburgh and St Andrew's in particular have waited almost until late May before rejecting, suggesting that they're holding some as insurance against under recruitment from abroad. For a few years (2020, 2021) their offers to English students rose sharply, as there were fewer overseas students because of Covid.

Economics might be the other one for Lemonsoles list

@titchy - sorry I should have been clearer that these percentages vary widely by Uni.

www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses/course-listing/computer-science

www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses/course-listing/economics-and-management

Similar percentages for Imperial, Durham, UCL etc. There are very many kids with the right grades so the Unis can pick and choose. And funding requirements (overseas or home), personal statement and other factors such as postcode, free school lunches will all be factored in.

Which is why the kids really need to consider all 5 UCAS selections carefully to maximise their options

Yeah on a thread where OP states in their opening post that their dc is not applying for Oxford, Cambridge, or any super-competitive course, it's not helpful to state that courses like computing and management have 5% offer rates, based purely on Oxford stats

That's how you put off kids and families who don't have a lot of experience of HE. Please don't spread myths.

I’ve heard of lots of good maths applicants not getting many offers. They do seem to have applied to the same top unis. PPE and economics seem to get only 1-2 offers too.

@ErrolTheDragon Good shout. And possibly Psychology (but this is less so)

I think the advice on here is good. The uni may provide their own statistics on their admissions or you can usually find it by a bit of googling, a website called What Do They Know does FOI requests to unis.

I also agree with Errol that an AAA entry attracts a lot. For some that will be aspirational and for others a safety net. A lot of top unis "only" ask for A star AA because then they can be oversubscribed because it is achievable for more applicants rather than stating 3 A stars. A personal statement is most likely the tie breaker.

Do you want to say what her hard to get A star in subjects are? Because she has the summer to work on improving her grades, reinforcing what she learned in year 12 and nailing it. Again loads of information online from the exam board for students and teachers on YouTube. If you want to say specifically then we may be able to help point her in the right direction.

@titchy - sorry - I was specifically responding to you because OP didn't state which course they were looking at. Those Oxford rates are reflected in the other top Unis who are not as transparent otherwise I would have quoted another source

I thought I made it clear in my post that the acceptance rate for many humanities is 50% plus (100% for some courses!) but I definitely should have said that this is per Uni! So with 5 choices, it will be 5 times that offer rate and happy days with at least a couple of offers

I am sorry for being off putting - I think I was trying to say that it is helpful to research offer rates and international student percentages and to be super positive about all the UCAS choices so that your kid will feel like a winner wherever they end up

@titchy Absolutely: it makes me really cross when random stats like that are thrown around on these threads.
Posters need to remember that everyone has five choices, and that there are always numpties who apply for courses for which they have no chance at all.

If predicted grades are below stated entry requirements, and the uni/ course are always over-subscribed, you'll be rejected.
If the course is less in demand, you might get an offer with lower predicted grades (but make sure you'd also be happy to go to your achievable insurance)
If you're applying for one of the hugely popular courses, and even if your predictions exceed the stated requirements, always include a couple of less high-demand options.
Maths at Oxford, Imperial, Durham, Warwick and UCL, for example, could easily end in five rejections even for a top student. For two of these choices this could simply be because the uni takes such a high proportion of overseas fees. So find somewhere else.

Read her second paragraph - the one that says she isn't applying for Oxbridge....

I think we can deduce that the OPs DD isn't in this group.

So the rest of my post is irrelevant chitchat.

There are specific issues with these particular instances, I think.

For starters, I would think PPE and economics both attract more than their fair share of very ambitious students.

There's no shortage of good unis offering good maths courses, but I would think they differ more in content and difficulty than many other subjects. (This is a good thing, one size really doesn't fit all). A course geared for the real mathmos with top grades in maths and FM and able to do STEP and olympiads etc may not be appropriate for a student who is 'good at maths' (many of whom will also have top A level grades) and may be excellent in some of the more applied branches.

Probably some students are misled by top grade predictions in maths and FM (relevant to 'top' economics courses as well as maths) and don't make an accurate assessment of the competition. For one thing, maths is notorious for people 'hitting a ceiling' - ace at A level but struggle with some uni options. The other is that because maths and even moreso FM are predominantly taken by people who are good at maths, they get the highest proportion of top A level grades awarded. (This surprises some people till they think about it!).

A kid who has perfect A level predictions still needs some safety net choices!

It’s also not true engineering courses at all RG unis are very competitive. They are not.

It would be easier to offer advice if the subjects were known. There really are enough degree courses to go round. So being clever with degree choice can pay dividends. Also if it’s MFL, they bite your hand off (nearly) and I’m not aware of anywhere that requires Astar.