I think there is definitely something in this.
The key is that teens need to out 5 choices on their UCAS Form. They are thinking in terms of their favourite aspirational choice, another which they would firm if they don’t get their top choice offer, and another they would insure. So most really want 3. They then need to fill the other 2 places.
Some students are stellar applicants. They have all Astar predictions and lots of other sought after attributes. They are often looking at the real top places - Oxbridge and perhaps the places like COWI (Cambridge, Oxford, Warwick and Imperial for Maths courses and Economics. Apart from Oxbridge, the others aren’t in the title of the thread but they are extremely extremely hard to get into for the popular courses. So these might be the top choices for those candidates, but they put the places listed in the thread title as places they will use as their top choice if their genuine top choice and very hard to get offers from places don’t give them an offer (and for popular courses, lots with 3 A star grades often only get 1 or 2 of their 5 choices if they put COWI places and perhaps Edinburgh for things like Econ) and then they need another that will be their insurance too. Yes, York, Exeter make offers to pretty much everyone who has the right grades and also will take people if they drop a grade in most courses in a normal year.
There are far more strong but not top notch applicants who apply with grades in the region of 3 As or similar. They aren’t applying to the COWI places for Econ/Maths and are less likely to be looking at London unis etc. These days, 3 As isn’t unusual from a decent private or state grammar school or really good Comp. Students who are solid but not stellar have often got these predictions and want somewhere that feels prestigious. Those from schools or families where these things matter, possibly feel that Exeter and increasingly York are the ‘right’ kind of places. Academic schools often send large numbers to these places and so they feel prestigious and normal for these families and schools. The fact that the unis do a good job of selling themselves as more selective than they really are, helps them maintain a sense that they are more academic in intake than perhaps places like Nottingham, Birmingham etc who have maybe a one grade lower published entry requirement, but in reality are taking students with the same grades…because York and Extetr will accept those they made offers to who miss by a grade.
So these good but not stellar places have those applying for whom it will be a push, those who are very likely to get the required grades, and those who expect to achieve more and go elsewhere, but also need an insurance offer or somewhere to firm if their top choice doesn’t offer. So these places like Exeter and York have a VAST number of applicants because they are attracting from all 3 categories of applicants. I think that’s why they come up so much.
Durham….similar, but possibly a bit more difficult to get into and less likely to take people with lower grades….so yes, it’s second for Oxbridge applicants generally and it might be second for people wanting the COWI courses or STEM which might be better elsewhere, but for some courses it is still very much the one-down from Oxbeidge.
I think Exeter especially remains popular as an extension of selective schooling which feels safe. The small city, not being northern or urban feeling and campus based might well appeal to those who want a student bubble and who are solid workers but not massively academically committed. This might be unfair, but it feels a bit like that to me.
It’s interesting as a dynamic. I think ultimately it’s to do with needing to out 5 places in the form and these very good but not absolutely top places ticking the boxes of top 5 for both the very top applicants and the huge group of strong but not top and not quite so good but aspirational students that are out there. Clever marketing also makes them feel ‘elite’ and that counts for a lot with people.