Oxbridge: Blatant social engineering - not admission according to potential.

[Marchesman]

Despite resistance from some tutors, Cambridge University’s Access and Participation Plan 2020-21 to 2024-25 includes a target to increase the proportion of UK state sector students that is entirely separate and independent of aims for POLAR4 quintiles 1 and 2. Formulating admissions targets for the University of Cambridge’s Access and Participation Plan (2020-21 to 2024-25) | Cambridge Admissions Office

The university's own research in 2011 had "found no statistically significant differences in performance by school type, and there was no evidence of the phenomenon observed at other UK universities of state sector students outperforming their privately educated peers" https://www.cao.cam.ac.uk/sites/www.cao.cam.ac.uk/files/ar_gp_school_performance.pdf Subsequent data shows that students from independent schools performed better in examinations than students from state schools by 2015/16, at a level that is highly statistically significant: https://www.informationhub.admin.cam.ac.uk/university-profile/ug-examination-results/archive

Therefore, APP 2020-21 to 2024-25 makes no attempt to justify the state school target on the basis of student performance. In fact the only justification given is: "We recognise that school type is not a characteristic used by the OfS or contained within its Access and Participation dataset; we recognise too that the state versus independent binary masks a range of educational experiences…[however] each of the under-represented groups identified within this Plan appear in far greater numbers in state maintained schools, as do students from low income households who are not identified by any of the measures currently available to us."

The result of this can be seen in https://www.cao.cam.ac.uk/files/attainment_outcomes.pdf

In final degree examinations: "The per cent mark remained lower for the three secondary school types: • Comprehensive (estimate = -0.70, SE = 0.19, t = -3.63, p< 0.001); • State grammar (estimate = -0.98, SE = 0.19, t = -5.22, p< 0.001); • State other (estimate = -0.87, SE = 0.20, t = -4.32, p< 0.001)" To put this into context, these are the figures for students with "cognitive or learning difficulties (estimate = -0.88, SE = 0.33, t = -2.67, p< 0.01)"

Regarding the acquisition of a First: "The probability of the outcome remained lower for the three secondary school types: • Comprehensive (coefficient = -0.20, SE = 0.06, z = -3.13, p< 0.01); • State grammar (coefficient = -0.30, SE = 0.06, z = -4.81, p< 0.001); • State other (coefficient = -0.24, SE = 0.07, z = -3.57, p< 0.001)"

Selection according to potential? Really?

JustanothermagicMonday of course there are excellent hospitals elsewhere but London has the biggest concentration. Also as a young doctor your rotations won't be in a single hospital so if you opt for Newcastle you may get one or two at the best hospitals but several in significantly less good ones too. There's also social life to think about, which means a big pull to certain places for those with the luxury of choice (because of doing well in their early training).

I think those must be numbers for application. Eton certainly didn't get anywhere near its whole cohort in Oxbridge in 2021.

@goodbyestranger “2 Hills Road Sixth Form College State 300 69” 300 applications, 69 offers in 2021.

“The Perse (private school in Cambridge) - 6 The Perse School Independent 137 48” - 137 applications, 48 offers.

Obviously offers not all from Cambridge, I think it was about 50% Oxford and 50% Cambridge. Still a lot of Oxbridge offers for a relatively small town.

I haven't got the Spectator myself. I assumed that the first number was applications to Cambridge, the second number those to Oxford? Is that correct?

Rather than Cambridge applications; Cambridge offers I mean.

Thanks. My post crossed. It was just that you said look at how skewed applications were towards Cambridge, so I assumed the other number was applications to Oxford. Those stats would be interesting too!

@JustanothermagicMonday1 - yes, I completely understand why less students from Scotland would apply to Oxbridge (or unis in England generally) as they have free tuition in Scotland. Of course. But I wasn't talking about numbers applying, my point was about success rates for those who DO actually apply. 23.4% success rate for the NE, compared to 14.1% success rate for Scotland.

@goodbyestranger - those stats posted by @JustanothermagicMonday1 are indeed the offers made at those schools (first number is the size of the year group at each school, second number the offers made).

Sorry cross post (I see the first number is applications anyway).

Got it. I misread.

You can find every school that had at least one applicant to Cambridge for the 2021 cycle here: https://www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/files/publications/undergraduate_admissions_by_apply_centre_2021_cycle.pdf

If a school had no applicants, it does not appear on the list.

Comparing this list with the list of Aspiring Schools (schools in the bottom 40% for A Level attainment) shows that of the 532 state schools on the aspiring schools list, 449 had no applicants to Cambridge in 2021. It is not possible to tell how many acceptances were given to pupils from aspiring schools due to suppression of numbers less than 3.

I also noticed when visiting Cambridge, that Cardiff Sixth Form (which has the best A-level result in the country, I think), now has opened a new premises in Cambridge.

Hills Rd 6th Form is literally nextdoor to Homerton College. There seem to be many excellent schools, state and independent, in Cambridge. I don't think I've been to a place with so many schools! But obviously, a lot of academics and researchers live in Cambridge (not only in the uni but the place seems to be a STEM research hub as well).

Interest @worldstillturns - boarding fees 2023/24 - £58,000. Getting ready for all the Hong Kong students who will then pay overseas fees to Cambridge and Oxford too?

Eton College Independent 194 47

Not surprised that Eton was sobbing into its cornflakes on results day. Also kind of gives the lie to the idea that Eton boys only really want to go to the US these days. Pushed over the pond rather than jumping is what those numbers say to me.

When a pupil from a UK private school applies but does not qualify for home fees and has to pay overseas fees, does the university know that and how is it taken into account?
How many of the Eton boys getting in actually pay overseas fees?

There are two international school in Singapore getting lots of offers these days from Oxford and Cambridge. Maybe the rich Asian overseas parents will choose those instead now?

Proggy if your Dd was at a private school on what basis do you do confidently state the state / state divide is the big one not state private? That’s not my experience at all - not in the last year or so anyway state schools of all types are struggling massively with teacher retention and bad post covid behaviours.

goodbyestranger - 47 offers from 194 applications is very good though? That's roughly 1 in 4 applicants getting offers when the average offer rate at Cambridge these days is 1 in 7 these days (that's across all subjects combined - obviously varies a lot within subjects).

What is more astonishing really, is that an individual private day / boarding / state school in the list by @JustanothermagicMonday1 can have almost as many successful applicants as an entire region such as the NE, or an entire country such as Scotland or Wales!

Also state schools like the fancy one posted are unlikely to get contextual offers anyway so not sure what the upset is

worldstillturns Eton used to get a steady one in three into Oxbridge so less than one in four is rubbish. Look how many still aspire and are disappointed though - big numbers indeed and much worse than in recent years. So yes, sobbing fully justified.

Well I wouldn't know goodbyestranger. Oxbridge has become more competitive in general though in recent years and that's true across the board.

I don't doubt that back in the day, Eton was seen as a 'route' into Oxbridge - I mean in the Boris Johnson etc era when there were EE offers and only 20% of students even went to university that kind of thing. But those days are long gone. I suspect Eton is a lot more international these days? Anyway, I don't think people need to worry too much. I'm sure they'll be fine!

@TheaBrandt Are you actually suggesting that State schools are exactly the same across the country?
My DD went to a State Primary in an area of high deprivation and was in receipt of FSM. I was more than aware of the disparity in State Secondary provision within my county alone-that's before we look at nationwide picture-hence DD sat for a schoklarship.
I'm also aware that applicants from high performing State schools don't get contextual offers but some pupils will do based on their home postcode and SES and so they should!
I have no issue with that whatsoever-DD received one from one of her 5 choices due to my financial circumstance.
I also have no issue with the current 70:30 (ish) split for Oxbridge entrants as previoisly stated. If the ratio is to be increased further then I would expect a much higher percentage of applicants coming from households flagged by SES measures and in receipt of a full loan from SFE than it standsnow, though.

worldstillturns well I do know the figures! And these ones from the Spectator suggest that a very large majority of the cohort apply to Oxbridge and many more are now rejected than was the case in the recent past. At our grammar the number of acceptances in the past couple of years has shot up. The overall application: offer rates are less interesting than the picture at individual school level.

@worldstillturns I agree that for Scottish students there is an incentive to go to a Scottish University, but truly when I was applying to university about a century ago I wouldn't have dreamt of applying to one in England! I could go to St Andrews or Edinburgh and only have to put up with a small percentage of the student body being the kind of entitled bores who pop up here.
I'm reminded of one of my children who said when they were at Oxford that everyone thought that they deserved to be there. When DC did a post grad at a Northern Russell Group University DC liked it much better because everyone was so happy to be there.

@sendsummer
I am not surprised their conclusion avoids comment on the results relating to school type and instead focuses on the greater effect of ethnicity.

Nor me. But it sticks out like a sore thumb.

@mumsneedwine
The NE schools have been asked about this (not all, but a selection) and the upshot was that lots of students didn't want to go to Oxbridge. They wanted to stay nearer home, as cheaper to live and cheaper to get home !

If these NE schools were asked why they're getting half the rate of basic A levels for selective university entry compared with southern regions the answer would also be pupil preference.

Poor families are sold this story that it doesn't matter what university you go to because degrees are standardised, aided and betted by spurious league tables that are based on student feedback. It is most convenient allround.

@mumsneedwine
@Walkaround this is my favourite sentence of the thread. Just about sums up some of the attitudes in this country at the moment.

If you are refering to a lax attitude towards basic comprehension, I am with you wholeheartedly.