Went to Oxford last week with DS2 for History. Lincoln told us:
- didn't really care about GCSEs
- only cared about 3 A levels and pointed out, everyone will have great grades
- so used HAT, interview and PS equally
- I personally came away feeling interview was most important
Just a quick summary of experience with DS1: (2022 entrance). Predicted (and achieved) 4 A*s and had a PS that his second choice uni fed back was outstanding. Had come second and been commended in two big essay competitions. I overheard most of college interview and it was very challenging, unfriendly but he did well.
He didn't get in - so asked for the scores and they were interesting reading. Oxford had scored his PS, HAT and interview exactly the same. Overall, he was just one point below acceptance. Feeling was he didn't meet social criteria so had been kept just slightly too low.
At Cambridge same year (2022) very, very able student friend of DS1 got fantastic score for his interview but didn't do so well in the entrance test. He too didn't get an offer despite 3 A*s predicted and a lot of relevant experience. So they seem to want excellence in all areas.
DS2 still wants to try so I spent a lot of time speaking to individual tutors this time. I found out (and this may apply only to humanities) that some colleges the tutors decide who gets interviewed and offered places and some use the central admissions team. So worth checking out who you are actually writing for.
Lastly - PS. I agree with poster who said write for the second uni. As I mentioned, the second uni (also prestigious) primarily use the PS not grades and gave him a very low offer (we felt to get him) whereas others on his course had much higher offers. So don't ignore uni number 2's criteria.
Hope that helps!