Does DS have a chance to get into a top uni for economics?

[StressedaboutUni]

My DS is aiming to read economics at a target uni (LSE, Cambridge, UCL, Warwick, Imperial). He got very good GCSEs (9 grade 9's) and straight A's at AS level this year in his 4 subjects (there is no A star at AS).
However he will only be predicted 3 A stars and 1 A in Further Maths.

Does he have a chance to get into these Unis without straight A* predictions. He also goes to a superselective grammar so will these predictions look even worse compared to everyone else? Should he apply to a much less competitive Uni?

Also does he need to declare individual marks in the AS grades as some of the actual marks are not very high.

Thanks in advance.

And yes, if you are applying from a super selective, the bar will be higher. This is the truth of it.

True. A huge number of applicants with 4 A stars from such schools - so you've got to stand out (interview, EPQ etc)

"and your post is very boastful-you already knew the answer to this at 3A* and all 9s at GCSE"

I don't think this is at all fair to OP. She is just trying to be realistic. The odds of an Economics offer at Cambridge is about 1 in 11 - nearly all applicants will have a similar grade profile to her son and the reality is, many will have the A star in FM. Economics at these unis is very mathematical and they will be specifically looking for outstanding mathematicians who can cope with the pace. If he was applying from an underprivileged school, they may be inclined to look at his grades contextually, but this is not the case for her son. She is being realistic and this is a far better attitude than "Ooh three A stars and an A, you're bound to get in with that" - and then the disappointment if he doesn't. Every year, these institutions turned down more students with those grades than they accept and it's worth being aware of this at the outset. But there are many other unis he should get offers from, yes. And hopefully, he will also get something from the three he is particularly targeting. But her question is valid,

I actually think MN is pretty good on Bath and in DS's circle , Bath is highly regarded. V competitive entry for lots of subjects. Arguably more difficult to get a place at Bath than Durham for economics which might make Durham a better back up choice.

As mentioned above please look at the courses. They differ widely and just because it's Cambridge it might not be what he wants to do exactly. You need to love your subject so you need to want to do it.
I went to Oxford and several people were so blinkered about getting in they didn't enjoy it when they got there e.g the language course was very old lit based rather than anything else, the chemistry degree didn't have many options. Might have all changed now though.

If you have all 9s at GCSE and are predicted the highest grades you should be applying competitively, surely?

Yes, for some of the 5 slots. But the reality is that the highest ranked courses have a high applicant to offer ratio. It was a little under ten to one for Cambridge last year (Cambridge admission stats are very transparent, they have an interactive graph generator) and may well be similar at the others mentioned in the OP. And most of those other applicants will also have high predictions. It's pretty obvious that it'd be foolish to make 5 choices each of which had a less than one in five chance of success.

Of course there's lots of other (apprenticeships etc) options,

Isn't it often even harder to get on a good apprenticeship than uni? I thought there still weren't nearly enough of them.

I agree Errol , I was responding to a particular post which seemed to suggest applying to these places was just snobbery.

Really hard to predict how things will go. I know of someone just completed first year at Oxford (maths and computer science ) whose only other offer was Birmingham. Imperial, Bristol and Bath all rejected them. Expect the unexpected was my motto for DS approaching it this year.

Yup, but MN doesn't know this and so just flings out that advice as if it's a 'back up'.

For example, an HSBC apprenticeship is AAB at A level and a fairly gruelling round of interviews and assessment.

Isn't it often even harder to get on a good apprenticeship than uni?

Possibly, but at least you're not spending £9K per year on a Uni degree that may or may not be a good investment?!

This is about right.

He is looking at very mathematical courses. DS, at LSE, took more maths courses than his friend reading EEE at Imperial. Decisions will be made on fine margins, and an A, rather than A star in FM won't help.

1. Does he really want one of the very mathematical courses? Recruitment for some of the serious, well paid, quant jobs in the City will be from those and from applicants with maths or engineering degrees. Ditto it is probably easier to get on econ PhD programmes with proven technical skills. But you need to be good. There are lots of other courses/jobs for those with sound maths/technical skills. LSE compulsory maths courses in first and second years can be a struggle for those less maths inclined, though third year then allowed for lots of non mathematical options.
2. If he does, he needs a plan B for if he is not accepted. DS did have an A star predicted for FM, but Universities could have seen that his AS was pretty borderline. He received three rejections (no Imperial in those days) but luckily got both the A star and an LSE place. I suggest your DS have a gentler option as a fifth choice, perhaps Bristol which offers quite a mathematical course or Nottingham, and then work like blazes on his maths. (Practice and more practice helps, and these are skills he will need at University anyway.) If he nails his grades he can think about reapplying. If not he can go to his fall back. I am amazed at the person who suggests Durham as a fall back. It is probably equally competitive, but a different type of course.
3. He needs to read through the University websites carefully to ensure his PS evidences any stated preferences or requirements and shows he knows what the different courses offer.
4. Back to point 1. Has he already received tutoring or additional help? DS was able to observe friends, both from his school, and on his course, who got onto very mathematical courses at LSE and Cambridge with strong FM results, but who, it transpired, had been tutored to the gills. The results were not pretty, two did not enjoy University and two did not finish. If he needs help at A level, far better to accept that he may be more comfortable on a more generalist course.

Having said all that, DS was genuinely interested in economic forecasting and found University maths more interesting that school maths. He was right to focus on these courses, and a bit like a medical school applicant who does not get an offer first time round, would have reapplied. Gaining good technical skills at UG level opens the door to well regarded Masters degrees, and then to further study (he is now taking a PhD in the US) or to specialist consultancy jobs.

Brilliant post, @Needmoresleep

Thanks!

Eight years ago the level of competition took us very much by surprise, with DS left sitting in the sixth form common room in mid March with only one offer, which he no longer wanted, from his fifth choice with only a few medics for company, as everyone else was excitedly planning accommodation and freshers week. It was difficult, though in retrospect it was better for him to have got through his first major rejection whilst still at home.

Worth remembering that you only need to apply to Cambridge in October. The rest can be added before the January deadline. If you are a home applicant you are legally entitled to equal consideration as long as you apply before the deadline. So apply there and to the safety and see where you are at Christmas. If you have an acceptable fall back in the bag you might as well aim high on the rest. (DS got his Bristol offer very early.)

@Needmoresleep Thanks so much for your advice! I didn’t know that you can apply to some unis at a later dat, I thought they all had to be done by the early deadline or all by the later one. I will ask DS to ask his school if they will allow this as I think they wanted all choices applied to early. DS does enjoy Maths, he just isn’t amazing at it like some of his peers, so he really does want to apply to highly mathematical courses though of course they are really competitive!

@pelham4 Thanks for your advice. He does have a mini-test in September but I am not pinning my hopes too much on that as his AS FM was midway between the A boundary and a 100% and so many of his friends got about 10% more! The school is really strict when handing out offers and seem to do it based based on ranking order of results in the year group. Having said that he has tried to tailor his PS to what LSE want so he will just try his best.

Got to be in it to win it but lots of DS friends targeting top unis this year for Econ got only one offer out of 5, when none of the choices they went for advertised entry requirements above their predicted grades. ( ie they weren’t super aspirational choices )

also none were accepted if they dropped one grade either on the day

Econ landscape vv tough at the mo

How many of the class are likely to be tutored? We never considered it for either DC as they had no problem with concepts and though they were nowhere near the top of the year, were doing fine. It was only afterwards when we realised what had been going on, and that DC were probably more natural mathematicians than we had realised. The school will give strong predictions to those who are performing well, in part because they can be sure they will get the grades, but the next step, without support could be difficult for those who have been tutored. One impact, in very academic schools, is that other kids can start feeling they are not good enough. The turnaround at University for DC and several of his friends was noticeable. None made Cambridge, but did very well elsewhere.

Maths teachers, particularly those teaching A level, tend to have a reasonable idea of who is a natural.

My advice would be to apply to where he wants to go, then work really hard to nail the A star and in parallel plan for a super gap year. Internships, even a low level job in a bank found through an employment agency. Then some travel, perhaps gain a language. And keep reading. Follow some interesting economists on Twitter and read what they recommend etc. Look at the public lecture programmes for places like the LSE, many of which are now on line, and attend.

Several from DS' high achieving school took gap years and almost all seem to have done something constructive. They also applied for internships and other work experience. By the time they graduated, many had a pretty impressive Linked In profiles, and moved smoothly on to good graduate jobs. Contacts would have got them some of this, but the willingness to keep applying and to give up time and vacations to build an employment profile will have contributed.

Someone suggested that mathematicians should not take gap years. I am not convinced. Firstly Financial Maths is largely iterations of statistics so mainly new and nothing to do with ability in, say, mechanics. Secondly DD took an intercalation in Bio Medical Engineering at Imperial at the age of 22, which involved a crash summer course in maths before, effectively, being dumped into the third year of the engineering degree. Some did just fine, others struggled, the deciding factor seemingly being maths aptitude rather than age or previous grades.

For those reading this and considering economics, have you (also) considered Applying to the big four for accountancy apprenticeships? I know someone who has done this and in a years time could be a chartered accountant. Maybe worth considering also.

Ps. There’s several strands of accounting available, not just ‘book-keeping’.

OP, well it sounds like he has your full support and interest which counts for a lot. In my DC school, they didn't do AS, levels. They did an exam series at Easter and then another one in June. These were the basis of the "provisional predicted grades." Then they had another round of exams first week back in Sept which, at the time I thought was ridiculous, but it did enable DC to bump the a subject up to an A*. Hopefully, your DS can do the same. But if not, it's not the end if the world (obviously)!

Also, I second what Needmoresleep says - that if he is dead set on the most competitive unis, it may be worth looking at the whole thing as a two-year process. If he doesn't get what he wants this year, he can always reapply if he gets all A* in the actual A-levels. This is another thing a lot of Year 13 applicants underestimate I think - ie, that their predictions may be great, but they are applying against a significant cohort with those grades already achieved and who have finished the whole A-level curriculum (so their PS will reflect that extra knowledge / maturity).

I know they're not keen on gap years for pure Maths students, but I think it may be ok for Economics as long as they have a plan? Do check with the unis though. Having top grades in hand takes away uncertainty for admissions. It also gives him time to enter some more essay competitions maybe (off the top of my head for economics, I think there is one for the FT every year and the John Locke Institute at Oxford have a competition every year). There is also the benefit of an extra year's maturity, travel, volunteering and maybe even some relevant work-experience?

I'm not saying by any means that he will need to take a gap year and he may well not want to anyway, but just thought I'd mention it as sometimes it can take the pressure off a bit to think of the process as more than "one shot only."

Maybe because her experience and passion seemed to be in tech rather than politics, which she'd applied for at uni? Maybe the outcome would have been different if she had done work experience with fa local MP (don't know for sure obviously and I can't read the full story to see if there is any more to it.)

There are lots of very bright children across the country competing for places. Where possible they need to be able to demonstrate their genuine interest in a subject as well as decent exam grades.

He is going to get into a good university with those grades, so now he needs to look a bit more closely at what the universities are offering/ what he wants to get out of his university experience.

Look at distance and travel from home if he is likely to want to visit/ expect you to taxi service. Look at accommodation, halls, decent rented accommodation availability. what sports and clubs is he keen on , Imperial is a great university but if he has a passion for advanced mountain climbing he might want to choose elsewhere! What other interests does he have, you mention his writing, are there student run magazines, well regarded literary societies etc .

He is going to end up with a good degree from a good university, but to really get the most from his university experience he needs to be developing as a human being, meeting lots of interesting people , having a full life that will carry on whether he enters commerce, politics or academia.

@Needmoresleep I have argued the point several times with fellow STEM admissions tutors that our offer is so high, and our students so good, that they will pick up their maths again quickly after a gap year. The few we allowed on my watch all went fine, to the best of my knowledge.

But the concern about the concept, on the grounds of ‘losing the maths’ persists throughout much of STEM. I don’t know about Economics.

poetryandwine I am not sure it does. As I understand it other, real world, experience seems to be valued highly when it comes to PhD places, meaning that DS, still aged 22 was very unlikely to get a place in a "US Top 5" department without building a wider CV first. As it was he was second youngest out of 30 on his PhD programme, the youngest being something of a phenomenon who had skipped years all over the place during her school and Undergraduate career. His Masters (Econometrics and Mathematical Economics) with 39 students and only one Brit, was a very mixed bag of background and age. Essentially people wanting a year to brush up/develop their technical skills before applying for/embarking on a PhD after up to a decade out of education.

Thinking does not seem to be different at UG level. Some economics courses do seem to have become effectively branches of applied maths (DS claims he could have graduated with only taking two courses in actual economics out of twelve - though in the end he took three) but real world insight and humanities skills of being able to evidence, reason and argue are still important. And perhaps valued more in the US where Economics majors get a much broader education. The LSE entry requirements page is interesting. "Further Mathematics at A-level is also desirable, and is acceptable for entry in combination with Mathematics and one other A-level. In these cases we would prefer that the third A-level should be an essay-based subject."

I know how easy it is to fall in to this trap. The fact is there are plenty of kids who get three or four A stars, so even getting them is no guarantee of a place. But I do think you are being unnecessarily pessimistic.
Everyone has advised: aim high but prepare for not achieving as predicted, or not getting offers in the first place! I know kids who were predicted (and achieved) better than the published offer grades and didn't get offered places. The debacle of 2020 is still being felt.
In my case, my daughter doesn't need good grades (her acceptance is portfolio based). In fact a couple of unis she's looked at just say 'an A level C or above'. She is predicted A star, A and B. And she wants those grades, and I want them for her too! Even if she got an unconditional offer she'd still work her butt off to get them.
Getting hung up on a particular top uni is setting himself up for a fall. He needs to be pragmatic. A good degree from a good university will serve him well enough. Hopefully he will get in where he wants.