Does DS have a chance to get into a top uni for economics?

[StressedaboutUni]

My DS is aiming to read economics at a target uni (LSE, Cambridge, UCL, Warwick, Imperial). He got very good GCSEs (9 grade 9's) and straight A's at AS level this year in his 4 subjects (there is no A star at AS).
However he will only be predicted 3 A stars and 1 A in Further Maths.

Does he have a chance to get into these Unis without straight A* predictions. He also goes to a superselective grammar so will these predictions look even worse compared to everyone else? Should he apply to a much less competitive Uni?

Also does he need to declare individual marks in the AS grades as some of the actual marks are not very high.

Thanks in advance.

My DS had offers from UCL, Warwick and Notts for Economics and has opted for UCL for this year. Rejected by LSE and Cambridge. He has achieved 3 A stars ( Math, FM and Economics) and an A in physics. Economics this year was very competitive; it took me by surprise rather! He didn't have that many extra curricular activities because of Covid; he focused on reading widely. The Cambridge entrance exam was super tough, though the feedback says he did "better than average".

I agree with posters who have suggested he consider an insurance, perhaps Notts or Bath? I also think he should pay a lot of attention to his PS. LSE apparently likes students to tailor their PS to the course. If you go on student room, there are many samples. And prepare for Cambridge entrance exam in advance if he has time.

Agree grade inflation has not helped and it has become important to stand out with a good PS, extras or by doing well in the exam. Though I have to say that with 4 A levels and FM, students find it hard to do much else!

To add, DS goes to a selective indie so everybody had high grades.

DDs school to emphasise the need not to select 5 courses with low offer rates estimated probabilities of 0, 1, 2 etc offers (UCAS coordinator was a maths teacher). They made some assumptions to simplify things but said if your kid isn't contextual or a master of the universe just a smart kid in a good school then with 15% offer rates approx 44% will get 0 offers, 39% one offer, 14% two offers, 2% three offers, 1% more than 4 offers. So definitely a good chance of one offer but not a sure thing.

It made an impression on DD so she added an option where she was almost certain on a place and didn't get too invested in a particular uni.

@StressedaboutUni the issue with lots of people getting rejected by top unis is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. Just like your son, those with absolute top grades will apply to the top ranking unis for their course because nothing is off limits. All of those unis are oversubscribed and so not everyone applying will get a place. Multiply that across one student's UCAS choices and it can just be the luck of the draw.

Entry grades are just that, the minimum. Ds is at Durham his course was the standard A⃰ AA entry and Ds was predicted 3A⃰ and 1A but the What Do They Know website showed was that they only admit a few with that grade profile, of course they have 4 A⃰ and 3A⃰ then 2A⃰ A and finally the entry grade. The same with Oxford.

I completely agree that grades are just one part, entry tests, personal statements and interviews are the other and probably more important factor. If your son feels that the FM grade is that important he has a short amount of time to prove he can get that up to an A⃰ before the UCAS October deadline.

It's so unpredictable! Ds1 was predicted 3 x A* (in Maths, Further Maths and Economics) after getting virtually all 9s at GCSE. Applied to do Economics at Cambridge, Durham, St Andrew's, Warwick and Bristol and only got offers from St Andrew's and Bristol.

He got an interview for Cambridge, which was something, but after that rejection came through, had his heart set on Durham, so was gutted when they rejected him too.

He got his 3 x A as predicted (needed AAA) and has just finished his 2nd year at Bristol. Has done a paid internship in London this summer and is hoping to have a job offer out of it for this time next year, so things are working out well for him, but 2 years ago we were gobsmacked at how many rejections he got with his GCSEs and predicted A levels...

Oops - didn't mean to do the bold! He got 3 x A*!!

We were always told to choose one aspirational choice (Oxbridge), three uni which match predicted grades, and insurance, ie. Grades slightly lower than predicted grades. Could you take this approach?

I loathe these types of post. This is a child who is clearly intelligent, has got the benefit of being in an outstanding secondary school, and his parent is ‘stressed’ that he might not get into a ‘top’ university.
Both my children went to ‘good’ secondary schools, one went to a Uni who basically took anyone who applied, the other to a so called ‘top’ one. Both got 2:1 degrees. Both earn more than I ever did after 30 years as a top pay scale teacher. Neither of their employers asked them which Uni they attended.
Putting pressure on yourself - and therefore your child - over whether they will get into a ‘top’ university is madness. By all means support your child, encourage them but also let them enjoy their time at school instead of agonising over whether they’ll get an A or an A* in an exam. Are we all forgetting the pressure this puts children under can lead to massive mental health anxiety? Don’t be worried about their choice of Uni, be worried that their mental health is good, that they have nice friends, that they are enjoying their life now.

If people aren’t getting offers with 3A* then other factors need looking at: rubbish personal statement, non-committal references (they may have been an unreliable/rude/disruptive nightmare for their teachers), bombed at interview, anything. The predicted grades are only the starting point.

As far as I can see, it's the DS who has picked those 5 unis, and the OP is sensibly asking if he should apply to somewhere less competitive, so that is unfair in this case.
And the OP has now said I will encourage DS to put a slightly lower ranked uni as insurance and just go with the flow. Well, apart from perhaps wiser to encourage him to pick a couple of those rather than just one that's about right.

Hi OP

i understand your concern about the lack of the A star in FM. His grades are excellent, for sure - no disputing that. But I think you are being realistic and, the fact is, every year, more are turned down with all A stars (even 4) than made offers. And yes, if you are applying from a super selective, the bar will be higher. This is the truth of it.

Might there be an opportunity for him to do another mini-exam or something in Sept for the FM to see if his prediction could be raised to an A star?

If not, it is what it is and it's still possible he might get into Cambridge, LSE or Warwick. He may perform really well in the Cambridge admissions test for Economics. Also the interviews.

As for the PS.... LSE put a massive amount of importance in this. Has he looked at the specific checklist for the PS on their website and tailored his PS, making sure it covers all those areas? This is really important for LSE. All they have to go on is the PS.

I think at Cambridge, the PS is less important in itself, because they will have the chance to meet him at interview and look at his performance in their admissions test. Also there is the SAQ. They may ask him to send some essays in too? So the PS is just part of the "jigsaw"in terms of their admissions. I'm sure you know this anyway. But - for Cambridge, please make sure his PS does not just list things he has read or done. Everything he mentions needs to be evaluated / analysed. He shouldn't waste space with anything non-academic.(sports etc).

So it doesn't matter that he didn't win an essay competition - what matters is specifically what he learned from the research and the prices of writing it. Did it inspire him to consider something else he sound not otherwise have been aware of?

Don't forget, Cambridge also have their own extra mini PS (the SAQ) where they can say why their course in particular interests the student. He needs to look at the actual modules on the course and tell make his wider reading / essays etc relevant to a couple of those.

Great that he's done an EPQ. If he got an A star in that, it's 30 extra UCAS points in value and Cambridge do like EPQs (not sure about Warwick and LSE but I'm sure it helps). Not everyone will have done an EPQ.

Bath is an excellent uni and offers Economics and will give offers a grade lower for an A star or A in EPQ. Worth bearing in mind.

Sorry go ramble, but I've just gone thorough it with a DC and the above are things I wish we'd known at the start of the process. Very best of luck!!

Just because they are a top uni, it doesn’t mean it is the best place for him. He should visit, get a feel for the place, talk to lecturers and current students on the open days etc. and always have an insurance place up your sleeve. A friend of DDs was supposed to be going to Oxford and was predicted 3xA*-unfortunately something went awry and she ended up with ABB, so missed her place by a country mile and is now going to Swansea instead.
and your post is very boastful-you already knew the answer to this at 3A* and all 9s at GCSE

I wouldn't want to teach my kid not to try because he might fail. I mean yeah sure if his grades were low or he didn't work hard or there was some other reason there was no chance it would be foolhardy but that's not the case. If he can talk/write convincingly about the subject, why he loves it, what in particular about the institutions and courses he's chosen, then yes he should apply. And he should apply for summer that are not his ideal but that he's happy to go to if it doesn't work out.

And if he doesn't get in, that's OK. He definitely won't if he doesn't try but of he does try his hardest and doesn't get in - well, it's gutting not it doesn't ruin the rest of his life and it doesn't put a big FAIL label on his head.

I'm sure he has a full social/hobby life outside of school too, so his entire worth isn't wrapped up in his school marks.

Offer rates aren't widely violable (they used to be in prospectuses in my day!). I think anecdata on application success rate is pretty helpful for economics.

Often you need an FOI to find anything like this out. Goodness knows why.

I know where you are coming from (I agree the just was jarring) but it is definitely OK to be aspirational and - if applying for the wildly competitive Economics- forewarned is forearmed (DS's friend definitely would have done things differently, including A Level choices, had he had more transparent info and more informed advice from school). If you have all 9s at GCSE and are predicted the highest grades you should be applying competitively, surely?

Ona a side note, I'm not sure what all these 'magic 5' economics grads aim to do/actually do do? What's the trajectory after graduation?

Sorry that should say available above!

Pelham's advice is excellent. Just wanted to mention, though, that Bath was also rejecting a LOT of top applicants this year,as was Leeds.

I would suggest he choose 3 of those and choose 2 with much lower requirements. If you look on clearing even today there are places for maths.

even at our state school boys have not been getting 5 offers for maths - they all seem to put the same ones down.

I think we should give the OP the benefit of the doubt, and assume she is smart enough to protect her child's mental health and happiness. This is the Higher Education forum after all, and the right place for queries like these.

I am not British and found this forum very helpful when we were applying. We had no clue and anecdotes like these really helped. Beginning to think DS got super lucky given pps experiences.

It's not just about grades though - the Cambridge interview can be the point you're rejected. Loads of advice and interview tips on you tube though.

If you're going to spend £9K a year on fees then yes, the University and course does matter imo!

Of course there's lots of other (apprenticeships etc) options, and University is not for everyone but if you ARE going to spend a lot of money on a degree, then aim for one that is well respected.

Agree that Nottingham could be a good option - think the advertised grade requirement is A* A A.
DS has just graduated from Nottingham and loved his time there.
DS had Loughborough as his insurance - another good option.

The thing is it is competitive and the insurance choice is just as important as the aspirational choice. Have a good look at the courses. Someone up thread mentioned Durham - why would you study economics at Durham over many other RG unis and non RG unis (unless you just want the 'name')! This is not what they are known for and possibly would not be such a good course but then I don't get the obsession on MN with Durham!

An example of this is that Bath, although not RG has an outstanding reputation for economics and business. I would pick this over Durham anyday.

Also be aware that there was NOTHING in clearing for the main uni's this year, I don't know if it will be better next year? I guess this was because of deferrals from 2020 and 2021.

Frankly unless the grades are sorted out so universities can see who the really bright children are this isn't going to change. We are in position where they just don't know because too many are getting A star and A.

Hi, OP -

Former RG STEM admissions tutor here. I am glad you will encourage your DS to have a more realistic insurance choice. I’m here partly to say that’s absolutely crucial for anyone. The Econ horror stories are many and real, but usually there is more to them than what we as the public see. And your whole family must remember that he can have an eminently successful career with a degree from Notts, Kings, Manchester, etc. I am often struck that the biographical sketches of highly successful people include degrees from mid-ranking RG unis, or no degree at all.

At Cambridge he will apply to a specific College. The Economics website shows that in theory not all require FM. I suggest he focus on those, even though in practice most applicants will have it. Cambridge also require the TMUA, and a good mark there will go a long way.

Econ programmes attract huge numbers of superbly qualified Overseas applicants and I think the Overseas intake may be particularly high this year, as universities were feeling the pinch even before inflation hit.

Your DS sounds interesting if only for his journalism, which I hope will count for something. Good luck to him.