A level Predicted grades disappointing...

[KittenKong]

Any insights into how this plays out?

DS was hoping for some upgrades but the teachers have said no (he was trying for so hard too, poor kid).

Does anyone know how this works in the real world - will his applications be considered? Is he likely to get any offers? What if the exams are cancelled again?

Arghhhh

Oh dear.

Erm.....it's maybe worth listening to the school? Perhaps brace yourself for their predictions possibly being accurate. Yes, there's obviously leeway- but in my experience, unless you're in a private school, you do predict what you think the students will actually get.

If he does go for aspirational choices, it's worth considering what will happen if those universities say no, as he hasn't met their criteria.

P.s. don't dump English if he's managing it well. I know somebody who makes an enormous amount of money because he has that skill: a science degree and the ability to write. It's unusual.

But the point is that apparently he hasn’t yet been given his predictions, just split indicative ones. Which seems unlikely/negligent

Especially if the parents are paying for this shambles

Queen Mary University is a Russell Group and in London and could be one of his 5. I think he needs to pin the teachers down and find out exactly what grades he is being predicted. I think due to CAGs and the uncertainty as to what will happen with exams next year he needs to put a couple of options down at ABB/BBB. He may get offers at AAA with his predicted grades, but he needs to have a lower grade offer for his insurance. Universities have been far less flexible once results come out over the last two years because of the grade inflation. Also, if you apply with grades in hand, high ranked universities are far less likely to offer with grades one grade below their standard (many
used to accept with one dropped grade from post-exam applicants)

OP there are other ways to skin a cat too – DD2 went to a mid-rank university with grades similar to your DS's predictions (and doing a similar degree). Did well, got a good first degree and got onto a really prestigious MSc course. 12 months of really hard work later she is now the proud possessor of a first-class MSc from a university ranked above everywhere except Oxford for her field of study. Prospective employers are no longer the slightest bit interested in her A level results…

OP, writing as a former lecturer and admissions tutor in a very good but, as I said on another thread, not super elite RG STEM School, I think you are getting a lot of good advice here. Two points to consider:

1. When an applicant feels very strongly about a particular requirement, such as the wish of your DS to stay in London, but is also in a bit of a bind, I agree it is worth honouring. That's the voice of experience.

But in the real world it may mean something else gets sacrificed. I hardly ever advise this, but in the current application cycle I do think Imperial is likely a waste of a choice and UCL is aspirational. Try to keep your DS focused on the bottom line: he should be looking for the best fit where he can thrive.

@ChloeDecker and @mushroom3 have both recommended QMC London as a realistic choice. I agree. What the programme is like, I have no idea. There are loads of other good universities in London - if London is really the priority. Another option, as PPs and you yourself have said, is to take a gap year. Boys mature later than girls and I think you said your DS is the youngest in his year. He has good options for a gap year. On these grounds alone it sounds an attractive plan. Ideally he would then be applying with good A-Levels in hand, but he would also have a chance to retake them.

If your DS doesn't like any of these ideas, the only alternative I can see is to enlarge his scope beyond London, where he will find lots of good options.

1. I heartily agree with everyone who questions why he is being encouraged to sit four A-Levels. Only a small percentage of pupils can do this without undue stress and/or detracting from their results in the first three A-Levels. I cannot say strongly enough that within the RG every admissions team prefers three stronger A-Level grades to four weaker ones: that ranges from A A A vs A A* A A to

BBB vs BBCC.

On another current thread, the teacher and the two self-confessed academics (including me) are the most insistent voices favouring three A-Levels. Many parents are appealing to intellectual/cultural breadth and I agree this is inherently attractive. But it is at odds with the English admissions system, and the majority of pupils who attempt four A-Levels are handicapping themselves unnecessarily. I have seen too many dreams fail because ambitious schools pressured perfectly capable students to conform to a charming, old fashioned idea of a well-rounded scholar at odds with current English admissions procedures.

Given that your DS enjoys English and is doing well, I wonder whether he could keep that and drop the subject I don't remember seeing on the thread? I believe that would leave him with Chem, Maths and English. Sounds a good and slightly creative selection to me.

Good luck!

Fantastic advice @poetryandwine!

Yes great post @poetryandwine. I rally want to know what his fourth A level is OP - but I agree that if it is the most likely B grade then he should drop it and have maths, chem and Eng lit. Or if maths is the certinish B, then drop that (assuming the fourth is another science, as that would sit best with a chemistry uni application.

If he really wants to go to uni in London then that seems like the best place to apply. I presume there are London unis with lower offers (sorry never researched this as none of my DC wanted to go there).

The 4th is Physics and he really enjoys it (strange child).

Ah OK that's a bummer as physics without maths is not advised as I understand it; so if he keeps physics and maths then he would have to drop English - which would be a shame as it sounds as if it is his best grade.

I am very far from a physics specialist - is anyone who is able to suggest if it would matter if he dropped maths and kept physics at this stage - as in, I presume a lot of the crossover/usefulness of maths when study physics is already done?

Op it is really a good idea for him to drop one of his A levels as that can only improve his other grades. I would actually advise chem, maths, eng lit rather than chem, physics, eng lit. Or could he refocus and apply for phsyics? what is his predicted in that? This is all a bit last minute tho.

@KittenKong

The 4th is Physics and he really enjoys it (strange child).

If his aim is a chemistry degree then there's no point carrying on with physics.

Look his school is being really really negligent and it sounds as if you have too much going on to get down and dirty with them.

He just needs to click submit and drop physics. UCL, KCL, QM and two others.

Job done. Do it now and have an offer by Christmas. Best present ever. Esp if as a family you have some crap going on.

Ideally, he should tell the school that he wants to drop the fourth subject now and have their agreement that it is not listed on his application as 'pending' - which it must be, if the intention is that he will be entered for the A level. Easier than having to contact all his choices afterwards to tell them that his application is only based on three subjects.

If he enjoys physics presumably it is organic rather than difficulties with the concepts of physical chemistry that has been dragging his predicted grade down? If so, there is every chance with the work he is putting in that he can improve his chemistry grade, especially as PPs have said if he drops an A level immediately. I also suggest dropping physics, he will have opportunity to study aspects of physics if he does a chemistry degree and what he has covered so far in physics A level certainly won’t be wasted.

OP,

My hope is that your DS will choose between Physics and English. @Curioushorse makes a good point about the value of a. scientist who can write, and there is the more important
question of which he will enjoy more and be most motivated to keep up with over the remainder of the year. It is not pedagogically sound to do the linear Physics A-Level without Maths (even though you might read about a few bright sparks who can pull it off).

@titchy has the right idea just above, if your DS is going ahead this year! I've just looked at the Guardian League Table for 2022 which is focused on the student experience. Interestingly, the top London university for Chemistry is Greenwich (10 in the UK), which appears to be on the border of London and Kent. The entry requirement is 104 UCAS points with 32 recommended from Chemistry. The conversion is

A* = 56, A=48, B=40, C = 32.

I don't know whether this ticks the London box for your DS and it is not
elite the way his other choices are, but it could be a very good choice educationally and is certainly worth considering. The point is that students are happy there.

You already have UCL, Kings and, I hope, QMC. You know my views on Imperial this cycle but I wouldn't want your DS to live out his days wondering 'what if'. Kent itself looks fine but isn't really London. London Met def ticks the London box but ranks 112 for student experience, has low entry requirements and is not research focused either. I may have spoken too soon when I said blithely that London has loads of good universities. Turns out they don't all offer Chem. But I am sure I've missed some. Actually, unearthing them is neither my job nor yours, but one for your DS.

I am very sorry about your sister. Best wishes to your whole family.

Ooh, I can just imagine the collective MN intake of breath at the suggestion of the University of Greenwich as an alternative to KCL / UCL and even QMUL...

However, its main disadvantage if looking for a university in London would appear to.be that the Dept.of Chemistry is located at the Medway campus and Medway definitely not being 'London'.

It does offer an integrated Masters course (MChem., 4 years / 5 with year in industry), for which the requirements are 120 tariff points, minimum 40 (B) in Chemistry and its Chemistry degrees are accredited by the Royal Society of Chemistry.

It sounds like he might benefit from a gap year so that he can expand his options. If his friends are going to university outside of London and are enjoying their experience it might make him reconsider. London is not the centre of the universe.

DD was one of the youngest in her year and definitely benefitted from a gap year. Applying to university with grades in hand resulted in unconditional offers pretty much straight away.

@MarchingFrogs you can see I am no Londoner myself. Thank you for pointing out the geographical issue. I did hesitate to introduce Greenwich into this mix, but the ranking was so striking I decided for it.

A gap year is sounding a good choice to me now. The OP's DS may prefer London universities partly because that's what he knows: ' he's a London boy' and he attended a camp at Imperial that he liked. This is all fine and good, but as @RampantIvy points out, if he sees his friends enjoying away places (and perhaps visits), he may reconsider. And a gap year gives him time to get the grades for UCL, Kings and maybe Imperial. I think he sounds a good bet for a Kings offer now, but then he has to achieve it. Much less stressful to apply having made or surpassed the standard offer. Also, from my observation it is better both academically and socially to be one of the older students in your year group than one of the youngest. He won't stand out having taken a gap year.

He won't stand out having taken a gap year.

I agree. DD hasn't noticed the difference. DD attended a taster day at Imperial, but it didn't make her want to apply there.

I agree that maybe visiting his friends at their universities is a good call. There is life outside of London. (I am an ex Londoner, and have had a foot in both camps)

@poetryandwine While i fully understand your view on 3 versus 4 A levels, I have a sneaking suspicion that the OP's DS may go to the school my DS finished last year. That was a highly selective private school, and an absolute requirement was either 4 A levels or 3 A levels and an EPQ (which was finished in Year 12). My DS started with 4 A levels in Year 12, and after about 3 weeks switched to 3 A level and the EPQ - but he didn't have long to make that jump, I think the deadline was about the end of October. Certainly not Year 13.
Part of the reason for my sneaking suspicion is that my DS's year was the last year doing the Pre-Us - which, if I am right, would make the OP's DS the first year of doing the regular A levels, which might explain why the teachers keep using the Pre-U terminology.
But if I am right, the school selected people into A level on the assumption that they will either do 4 A levels or at least 3 and an EPQ, and it would be highly irregular to drop one now - tantamount to failing the school requirements.

Thank you, @bimkom. I wish the OP had mentioned this after the first suggestion of dropping an A-Level (if it is true). It might explain why she hasn't been back recently, as she must feel frustrated with useless advice. I am really sorry about that.

I think the EPQ is excellent preparation for university. But the four A-Level policy surprises me: I would have expected the Leadership Team at a highly selective school to appreciate that what Year 1 university students need is confident, deeply held knowledge in their core subjects. In some fields this means three specified /recommended exams. Anyone not predicted, say, two A*'s and an A will prepare better for university by studying more deeply for three exams than by being expected to sit four. (I suppose depending on where one wishes to go those marks could be swapped around.)

Your DS made a good choice, I think.

@poetryandwine Yes, he ended up loving doing his EPQ. I think part of the problem is it is a school for very overachieving boys. He only switched into it at sixth form, and it was fabulous for him, enormously challenging to be in such company after coming from a comp - and he totally thrived, but there were only a handful who came in at sixth form. And I suspect there may have been a certain status to doing the four.
If I am right, it may also explain what is really going on, because one of the things that seemed clear was the predicted grades they gave were apparently the "working at" grades - because they didn't want to be known to the universities as over predicting. So while I get the impression that a lot of schools take the view that predicted grades are the grades they think the student will get in the final exams, what seemed to be given out at this school were the grades that were being achieved already, not taking into account any improvement over the sixth form year. So, for example, my DS's predicted grades were D2, D3 A (one of his subjects had already switched to A level) - which he was fine with, as it was what he needed for all the universities he wanted to apply to - but what he actually got was D1, D1, A* - and although it was TAGs, I think realistically that was where he was heading (the only one that was really a bit of a surprise was the second D1, which might have been a D2). So it may well be that the OP's DS will have a similar trajectory, and that is what his tutor is saying. But the risk is in the current market that he will not get offers that he should because they are worried about over predicting.
Now this may perhaps not be sensible of the school anymore. There are probably so many applicants now, that university admissions people don't have time to look at the school and say - oh well, if they predict X, it is almost certainly X plus

Hey yes - sorry it’s been hectic here. Yes he did an GPQ and got an A* - is was a topic that he really enjoyed.

The students generally do 4 - I was a bit surprised that no one he knows dropped one at the end of the first a level year (people I know with kids in other schools dropped subjects). But he’s our only kid in a school we haven’t been to, in a system we haven’t been through (we went to uni in the 80s!) so this was just ‘the norm’ to us. It’s hard to know what is the ‘right’ was isn’t it?

We are looking at options now - it looks like the predictions won’t get him a look in where he wants to go as it stands. Maybe he will pull the rabbit out of the hat (his term report seems to imply that he will do well in all subjects if he pulls his finger out).

Widen his choices OP!! It’s the only sensible option. Lots of London DC in Bristol, Nottingham, Newcastle and Exeter!

I’ve tried! Like I said - we have family in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester, Liverpool.. even in the states, and friends in Bristol and near b’ham so it’s not like he will be away from everyone (he is still a bit of a kid so maybe another year will give him the maturity to want to spread his wings a little?).

I think that’s a wise view. He should then come into contact with friends who have gone further away. He might well be happy where there are London based Dc in sufficient dinners to feel at home. Relatives are irrelevant really! You don’t live with them.