A level Predicted grades disappointing...

[KittenKong]

Any insights into how this plays out?

DS was hoping for some upgrades but the teachers have said no (he was trying for so hard too, poor kid).

Does anyone know how this works in the real world - will his applications be considered? Is he likely to get any offers? What if the exams are cancelled again?

Arghhhh

If he's willing to wait, clearing offers are usually significantly below the before exam offers plus if he does better than predicted he's applying with actual results. The downside is that it happens really quickly and within a week or so you need to have decided which offer, book accommodation etc. Dd1 went through clearing but took time out first which meant she applied in July with grades

DD has applied for a 4 year integrated masters in Chemistry with placement year. She has received a range of offers AAB being the highest BBB the lowest. With the exception of the BBB uni , all the others want an A in Chemistry. She applied with predicted of AAA though. Her chemistry predicted was upped from a B by her teacher so that it at least gave her a chance of an aspirational offer. She is putting the aspirational choice AAB as her firm choice and the BBB uni as her insurance.

Is he absolutely set on being in London?

Chemistry has been vastly undersubscribed for year and had lots of places a top universities in clearing. I doubt there is even a need to rush with adding all the places to UCAS. Perhaps apply to Kings and UCL to see what happens plus one other then add two later?

Yes he’s set on London.

Agree with @titchy, this is all very poor by the school. I don't really understand the talk of D and M but by 7 Dec he really must know his predicted grades.

Apply as others have said, for one or two aspirational unis (UCL etc) and one or two medium (I imagine with ABB or AAB there will be RG options) and one back up in case he ends up with BBB or whatever. He doesn't have to hold that offer if he doesn't want to.

But please drop one subject (if English is a good grade and he wants to study chem, keep those two and a further science) and submit the application this week.

TBH there is no point trying to get a school to up a grade beyond what a student will achieve. Mate of DD's campaigned long and hard to get the teacher to give her predicted of a C which she needed; in the end the teacher did so, only for the student to achieve a D or E I think (2019 so actual exams) - leaving her with no uni place at all IIRC. Best overall to be realistic IMO.

I agree with titchy and clary. DD's teachers wouldn't give unachievable predicted grades either. They are just a waste of time.

Pre Us are being withdrawn in the next couple of years.

His tutor isn't correct IMO. He should try for 1-2 aspirational, IMO, and the rest at the level he's at or slightly above. They know that a lot of students will (usually) do better in their final exams, and offers will depend on other factors too. He could go for one 'lower' one if he's a cautious type, but only if he'd be genuinely happy with the place and course and is desperate to definitely go to university next year.

Don't worry, there are plenty of decent universities for which As & Bs or all Bs are fine for e.g. Chemistry, Mathematics, Chemical Engineering, Computer Science. Some students will do better in the long run in those universities than the absolute "top" ones and sometimes the teaching is better too. It's no impediment to a great experience, great career, research funding etc. of itself.

If he gets better grades than those which his eventual offer was based on, he can probably change universities through the Adjustment process which is concurrent with Clearing and usually has quite a lot of places in science and maths subjects (but not medicine, dentistry or veterinary medicine). This is particularly true if the achieved grades are AAA(A) to AAB(B) At a pinch, he can exit the process, take a year out, and reapply for an unconditional offer for the following year.

He could also seek advice from his preferred university course(s) by finding out who the undergraduate admissions tutor is and talking to them (via email or on the phone). This can take a bit of tenacity - ring the department rather than going via Admissions.

(I've worked on Clearing in a university.)

You might have missed my post, but one of his preferred unis asks for AAB (not sure why he thought they were all AAA) so he's pretty much guaranteed an offer there. If he ever gets the application in!

Sorry, accidentally skimmed over the fact that he's dead set on London. Combine my advice with those speaking about Kings, UCL and Imperial.

Or, he might want to look at other good courses in cities that are great in their own right, with easy travel to London as well, for 1-2 of his choices. Not everyone finds that studying in London is all it's cracked up to be - it's expensive and student lodgings can be spread out and far from the university, so it's not always quite the experience that people think it will be. (Nothing against London or going to uni in London btw, I've lived in London.)

Seems strange that his teachers won’t predict higher if he has shown himself capable of getting those grades.

His tutor isn't correct IMO. He should try for 1-2 aspirational, IMO, and the rest at the level he's at or slightly above.

That last word should be ‘below’ because an insurance offer should be exactly that. A back up in case grades aren’t achieved.
Aspirational choices should always be slightly above and not way off the mark anyway.

Too many students don’t do this and end up with grades slightly below their predicted grades (which are already slightly aspirational) and find themselves with no place on results day and a scramble through clearing anyway.

As titchy keeps saying, one of the DS’s preferred Universities, Kings, does not even typically offer AAA anyway for Chemistry, so all this sounds like to me, is a school not following standard procedure and a DS who also hasn’t really fully researched either.

Another good London university (and Russell Group if you like that sort of thing) asking for ABB, if that helps?

Dd is doing Chemistry atm) . Obviously it was an odd results year last year, but on results day there was barely anything in clearing for Chemistry.
I would recommend a ‘safety net “ insurance choice

@Anaximedes UCÀ aren't running a formal Adjustment process for this exam year. You will need to approach any unis you might be interested in directly if results are better than expected when received.

He could also take a gap year if grades are better than expected. I wish I had done that. I was predicted b/a and ended up with AAB and they were high As too. I should have taken a gap year and reapplied with better grades!

One of his teachers told him that a gap year might be a nice idea. I suppose with lockdown making schooling and socialising not exactly brilliant, and he is the youngest in the year - maybe a year might be not the worst thing in the world. Another teacher said that there are quite a few students who have deferred their degrees to next year (a neighbours daughter has done this) because of the uncertainty last year of online teaching etc.

I think because he has his heart set on particular unis/courses and wants to give it his best shot...

At the moment I’ve got so much on my mind - possible redundancy, my sister is terminal (other side the world), other family illness, bahhhhh. Stress? Oh yeah.

Why is he so set on London? He is really narrowing his options by not considering other university cities.

He’s a London lad... I know, I know, we’ve told him that it’s a great opp to live somewhere else, etc. He did a tour of UCL and really likes it and had been to camps at Imperial and has a friend there.

Well, like I said, he is youngest in his year. We have family scattered in other cities so it’s not like he could go somewhere will have no one around if he needs them. We have gone through alternatives - of course he may well change his mind. Maybe I should stop doing his laundry...

My DD1 did not apply for Uni, her predicted grades were something like BDD or BCD and didn't have a clue what to do, so had already decided to work, see how her A levels panned out and then see what she wanted to do. She actually got A* BB, and applied in clearing for a course she wanted to do and got in. She had intended to work a year then go, but decide she may as well actually just go. I'd suggest getting a job while you wait results, then decide on clearing and going/working the rest of the year and then going would work just fine.

Meant to add her cousin took a year out to work, qualified as an electrician, and worked alongside Uni course doing electrician work (v well paid) and now is a full time electrician, picks own hours so fits around surfing commitments and has a lovely lifestyle but says regrets going to Uni as it didn't help get the job they wanted (marine biologist, competitive field where experience counts)

Good plan. I worked for a charity before and he used to come and help me out - he really enjoyed it.

If he can’t get work then I’d suggest he does some charity work. I’m sure he could do some tutoring on the side too. Plus the charity I worked for ran homework clubs.

Weird, isn't it? DC deciding that they don't want to apply to London universities, they're wrong, cutting off their nose to spite their face etc. DC
deciding that where they want to be is London (which, after all, isn't short of different universities to apply to), they're wrong - immature, even - cutting off their nose to spite their face, etc.

However, if he does decide to look further afield, on another thread, someone posted that their DC has an offer of ABB for Chemistry at Bath (they don't mention whether Chemistry must be the A, though).

I think it's more that they are narrowing their choices which might work against them, not that it's inherently wrong to want (or absolutely not want) London unis in itself. My own dc1 had very specific "requirements" of what she wanted from a uni - it worked out for her but she definitely narrowed her field too much in my view. I suspect people are just trying to ensure he gets the best range of options available to him.
Op could it be that he did very badly at the end of year 12 and the teachers she'd to give him predictions now if he worked hard and pulled his socks up (apologies if you mentioned year 12 already) - I know my teacher friends have done that occasionally. Otherwise all the predictions would normally be sorted by October so it is confusing. I would also agree with dropping a 4th subject and concentrating on getting the best grades possible in the other 3.

His tutor isn't correct IMO. He should try for 1-2 aspirational, IMO, and the rest at the level he's at or slightly above. They know that a lot of students will (usually) do better in their final exams, and offers will depend on other factors too.

I disagree with this completely and it isn’t what we have been advised by DS1s (academically selective) independent. They have seen a real shift in offer practices in the past couple of years with the Tags meaning most kids get their predicted grades. We have been told that they used to see Fred apply for geography, miss it slightly but be told he can still go if he does geography and Swahili. Now it’s “no sorry, we’re full if you’ve missed your grades”. So they’ve had top grade pupils end up with no place at all. Some of those have ended up going to the US but obviously that’s massively expensive plus it’s not an option if you’ve dropped maths.

They are advising a potentially achievable aspirational, 2-3 matches and 1-2 safes (below prediction).

I do remember the head of year flustered last year saying that he had quite a few disappointed students that he had to manage.