Go big or go home? 5th ucas choice.

[Stringbeing]

DC is going to be applying to university soon. She's fairly sure of 4 choices, but stuck on the fifth.

Option one: go big, apply to very aspirational choice (e.g. Oxford, Durham). Unlikely to get an offer, but on the other hand definitely won't get one if doesn't apply. Obviously if they did get an offer, they'd have to get the grades, which would be stressful.

Option 2: apply to local uni (very well-regarded red brick). Can commute in an hour door to door, will future proof a bit against possible Covid disruption, and would be budget option as could live at home. But it is in a big city, Dc not that keen.

Option 3: choose another random uni with similar entry requirements to other choices?? Or with much lower?

Option 4: just apply to 4??

DH and I both feel option 1 and 2 are a better bet than 3 or 4, since if Dc isn't that bothered by 5th choice either way, may as well use it as a bit of a wild card.

Anyone got any advice?

Do you know if your DC is eligible for contextual offer (requires lower grades than those typically advertised). So say the course says AAA to apply, a contextual offer might allow AAA. So it’s important to find that out before determining if her choice is aspirational or not. The university web page should have a section where you can put in post code, check if disabled, check if Young carer, etc to see if your DD is eligible.

I wouldn’t apply to anything above her projected grades unless she is borderline and it is realistic she could go up a grade. This is because teachers are only right 20% of the time and of the 80% of the time they are wrong, they usually overpredict rather than underpredict.

So, yes,
Choice 1 aspirational but realistic
Choice 2 at the predicted grade level
Choice 3 at the predicted grade level
Choice 4 one grade below predicted grade level
Choice 5 leave open for clearing in case you either get grades substantially above or substantially below predicted.

If you can, visit the universities to help with choosing. The choices don’t have to be for exact same degree course and you can’t choose same university more than once. Say your DD loves a particular university and wants to study history she can choose it twice by applying to two different degree courses. She can use one choice to apply to study say medieval history, and another choice to apply to study ancient history. So she shouldn’t feel she has to choose 4 different universities will all the exact same degree course. It helps that they not be too different but in same general field as that would then not overly complicate her personal statement.

Oops you CAN choose same university more than once. Sorry!

When applying to UCAS for their university place both mine were aware that they needed to live at home so choose their university relating to being within bus travel under an hour,

They knew what subject so DS applied for 2courses at one uni, 2 at another and 1 at another which was a back up. Ds had the grades he needed for all courses,

Dd applied for 2 different courses but similar field of work. She applied to 1 uni who did a combined course linking both subjects and then applied to another uni for 4 courses. She had the grades required for all courses.

Deputy head of school advised that choice 5 was a backup option..l.l just incase.

It’s such a stressful time for parents aswell as students. Good luck to your child.

It entirely depends on her predicted grades, how certain she is of achieving them (esp. as she'll have not done any public exams before, and next year is uncertain) and what sort of offers her current four choices make and how keen she is on each of them. E.g. predicted 3 x A and confident can achieve 3 x B = don't bother with Oxford. Predicted 3 x A star and confident about achieving one A star plus 2 x A then Ox or Durham worth a punt. Or if has only put very high tariff unis down then the fifth should be lower, or at least one with a foundation year.

Can you enlighten further?

If it helps if she doesn't want Ox or Cam then she can apply with four, then add a fifth layer once offers have started to come in, as long as the fifth is added before the Jan deadline.

Yes, it's so difficult because she didn't sit any exams for GCSE, to know how she will cope with her A level exams. We have no idea.

I think predictions will maybe be AAA or AAB, haven't been told yet. I think AAA would be a lot of pressure though.

The 4 she has chosen are AAB (current favourite) ABB, AAB/ABB(current second favourite) and BBB , but all say they might reduce a grade for an EPQ.

Local uni is also AAB/ABB

I don't think she will qualify for actual contextual offers, (though she will be probably allowed some special considerations in exams.)

Fairly standard state comprehensive in rural area. I don't know about foundation years, can anyone do them?

Hadn't thought of applying for different things at the same uni, I think that might make it harder rather than easier to make decisions!

@Stringbeing do you have a UCAS advisor at school? Because they will be beat placed to advise as per your own circumstances

Russel Group and especially Oxbridge degrees definitely open more doors than other degrees. If your DC has a chance of making the grades for one of these unis, then it is definitely worth applying. Other PPs have given good advice IMHO.

That makes it easier. She won't get a look in at Ox or Cam with those predictions so you can rule those out. If local is the same grades as the others it also seems a bit pointless.

I would stick with those four for now. See what predictions are, and how she feels over the rest of the term. She will probably get two or three offers by Christmas. Then weigh up whether somewhere like Durham is worth an application.

There's no point adding the fifth though unless she actually wants to go to Durham or wherever, and once offers have come in she has to pick one firm and one insurance, so really five only needed if she thinks she won't get more than one or two offers.

Yes, there will be meetings with the school ucas advisor coming up.

But Dc has to say imminently if they are going to be part of the Oxford or Cambridge pathway, as you have to apply early.

Oh, ok if Oxford really is no hope, then we can disregard that. I was sort of thinking there's nothing to lose, but maybe there's no point.

I think that's a good idea to keep the 5th in reserve then.

I think if top choice offered that would be more attractive than Durham anyway.

Op my dd is in a similar situ to yours, her grade targets are AAA however I think her predicteds will be AAB. She too is looking at a well-regarded local Uni however they are looking for AAA. (It's frustrating because she's in the catchment for two excellent sixth forms who are on their contextual list, where she would only need ABB to get in!) she has done EPQ (no grade back yet) and we're wondering whether they might allow her in with that plus relevant work experience. 😬

Other courses are AAB / ABB however I think she'd like to go local as it's an amazing city, and she does plan to live there rather than at home however she has the safety net of commuting from home if she decides she wants to at any point.

We're certainly not wasting any time with Oxbridge entry - I think you'd need to be looking at 3x A stars at least.

In your situation I would not put a 5th choice now. Wait and see what offers she gets, snd how she does in her mocks. You will then have much more info to make a choice. That does assume she does not want to take a punt at oxbridge though.

don't think she will qualify for actual contextual offers, (though she will be probably allowed some special considerations in exams.)

Fairly standard state comprehensive in rural area.

She might. Contextual offers are for widening access. So simply going to a state school in a certain post code gets you a contextual offer by itself. Or if you qualify as a disabled student. Or if you are a young carer. It’s not a case of needing to have all the reasons for contextual offer, just meeting one of the criteria does it. So I’d go to uni webpage or call and find out.

On side note AAA is enough to get an Oxbridge offer in many degree courses within the humanities. So check the degree course entry requirement before you decide not to apply. It’s not AAA* across the board.
www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses/admission-requirements/admission-requirements-table?wssl=1

Link to Oxford contextual offer info page plus link to ACORN and POLAR to check your postcode
www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/applying-to-oxford/decisions/contextual-data

That was supposed to be 3 A*s but MN has bolded instead.

But Dc has to say imminently if they are going to be part of the Oxford or Cambridge pathway, as you have to apply early.

She really needs to ask her teachers about her Oxbridge potential. The entry requirements for a lot of courses at Oxford are AAA. What does she want to study? Almost all successful applicants will exceed the entry requirements that but she'll never know if she doesn't try. There's still time to prepare before aptitude tests/interviews. Unless she wants to study a subject like medicine where there is so much competition that it's better to apply to places where you stand a good chance of getting in rather than risk getting no offers.

Some things to look at when making her choices:

The reputation of the university for the subject she wants to study eg when I went to college, Oxford Poly was considered as good as, if not better, than Cambridge for architecture I'm picking an example from the past so as not to offend anyone

Graduation destinations/employment statistics for her course eg there is no point taking a degree in media studies at a university where only a handful of graduates go on to get work in the media.

Course structure and content eg if you are interested in 20th century English literature, don't apply to read English at a university that only offers one module in the subject but half a dozen in medieval literature. Cardiff has an excellent reputation for post graduate journalism but their undergraduate media courses are not NCTJ accredited. Not all psychology degrees are BPS accredited.

Application to offer ratio eg if only 50% of applicants get an offer at your insurance low offer choice, you probably want to apply to another place with a low offer, if everyone gets an offer, you only need one low offer option.

What is the city like/is it a campus university, collegiate university etc?
Accommodation options/cost of living in the city.

If you give the subject, people will be able to give more specific advice.

However the OP has said that AAA will be a struggle anyway and if that is the case she is unlikely to score well in the pre tests or have done the level of supra curricular expected of an Oxford candidate. The reason some of their offers are AAA is because they have selected using other criteria to ensure Hugh calibre offer holders. The OP has not stated what the dd has by way of gcse grades which Oxford will score on a contextual basis. I agree that Oxbridge is likely to be a wasted choice in an oversubscribed year where people will be applying with 3 x A* in hand.

I would second Seasonfinale comments and add that applying to Oxford is a lot of extra effort as well. It will dominate the Autumn term however much its 'just a punt' .Taking the pre tests , submitting examples of work , applying by the early deadline and making your personal statement Oxbridge appropriate and then if she is 'lucky' enough to get an interview the prep and time of school for that as well (although I am not sure how it works with Zoom ).

It sounds like she is at about the right level, why not apply with four and then add a fifth one she has some offers an gets a term of year 13 under her belt

@Stringbeing

DC is going to be applying to university soon. She's fairly sure of 4 choices, but stuck on the fifth.

Option one: go big, apply to very aspirational choice (e.g. Oxford, Durham). Unlikely to get an offer, but on the other hand definitely won't get one if doesn't apply. Obviously if they did get an offer, they'd have to get the grades, which would be stressful.

Option 2: apply to local uni (very well-regarded red brick). Can commute in an hour door to door, will future proof a bit against possible Covid disruption, and would be budget option as could live at home. But it is in a big city, Dc not that keen.

Option 3: choose another random uni with similar entry requirements to other choices?? Or with much lower?

Option 4: just apply to 4??

DH and I both feel option 1 and 2 are a better bet than 3 or 4, since if Dc isn't that bothered by 5th choice either way, may as well use it as a bit of a wild card.

Anyone got any advice?

I would get the personal statement and the rest of the application sorted, submit it as soon as possible with the 4 choices that they are certain about.
They can then add a 4th choice at any point and if it is before 6pm on the 26th January then their application will be considered the same as everyone elses.
By the 26th January they may well have recieved one or more offers, making the 5th choice irrelevant, or allowing a more informed choice of what they need from the 5th choice, and will give time to think about where the 5th choice is.

(note that this does not apply to Oxbridge and medicine where the equal consideration deadline is 15th October).

Re: Oxbridge - it depends on the context of those grades. If from a failing school etc AAA predictions will be absolutely fine

GCSE results will come into play if she's going to try for Oxbridge

There's a Facebook group called WIWIKAU with lots of helpful people who will be able to tell you what grades were accepted where recently.

OP said AAA would be a lot of pressure rather than a struggle. Her teachers are the best people to ask for advice.

It depends on the course somewhat. Theology has a 47% acceptance rate, Classics 47%, Music 45%, MFL 44%. It's much less work to prepare for the languages aptitude test and interview for Oriental Studies than the BMAT for medicine (with an acceptance rate of 10%).

It also depends on the acceptance rate at her other choices. Take Classics, a quick Google shows a 92% acceptance rate at UCL (AAB) and Kings (AAB), 100% at Nottingham (ABB). It would be a wasted choice to pick another low offer university in that example.

Worth noting that due to pandemic and the fact that so many universities had more offers accepted than expected due to higher grades and kids deferring last year that many universities are tightening up now on offers - I know a few kids who got over the published offer grades and still did not get a place. One was AAB and candidate got A star A A but no place. He had good EPQ grade and grade 8 music, gold D of E too. So while you may exceed the grades and still not get a place, it seems extremely unlikely you would get one if you didn't or just met them, and is it really worth the pressure? The work doesn't stop after you have your offer.

It's a very good point about lots of extra candidates with high grades floating around next year, and whether the additional stress is worth it.

It's for French and history, so I imagine pretty popular.

One stretch
Two realistic with hard work
Two insurance

@maofteens

Worth noting that due to pandemic and the fact that so many universities had more offers accepted than expected due to higher grades and kids deferring last year that many universities are tightening up now on offers - I know a few kids who got over the published offer grades and still did not get a place. One was AAB and candidate got A star A A but no place. He had good EPQ grade and grade 8 music, gold D of E too. So while you may exceed the grades and still not get a place, it seems extremely unlikely you would get one if you didn't or just met them, and is it really worth the pressure? The work doesn't stop after you have your offer.

UCAS statistics show that there are about 4000 more deferred places now for 2022 entry than at this point last year for 2021 entry. With the demographic increase in the number of 18 year olds, it is likely that the proportion of deferred places is lower next year than this and is unlikely to be as high as in 2012.