Oxford v Cambridge: how do applications balance out?

[FingernailNibbler]

Silly question. Because you can only apply to Oxford OR Cambridge, how do applications stay stable year on year, or are there sometimes swings in preference (and do they cause panics at the unis)?
Do things stay stable because of students' preferences for the city/campus/vibe/course structure and content?
Do students sometimes try to play the numbers game and apply to one despite personally preferring the other? But does that just ensure a swing the other way the following year?

I looked at stats for one subject for 2020 (not an ideal year to compare thanks to inflated final acceptance rates, but couldn't find stats for Oxford 2019 by course). The numbers are amazingly close.
*MML 2020
Cambridge *
378 applications / 193 offers / 187 acceptances
Oxford
406 applications / 177 acceptances *
*
If just 50 C applicants had chosen O instead, it would be very unbalanced:
C 328
O 456

How is the balance in other subjects?
How do sixth forms/ O and C manage this?
Do you think it will ever become possible to apply for both Oxford AND Cambridge?

@sandybayley

DS1 had to get 2 x A star and an A fir Chemistry at Oxford. A star in Chemistry and another in Maths or Physics.

Ahh, so it's not so simple as I believed. I think the Oxford AAA may just be for humanities? DD is my PFB, so I was new to all this, and obviously still learning!

Also, I didn't go to any Oxford open day, so know less about that university, colleges, etc as DD had already decided on C after reading about her course.

the feeling that you need pretty much all A stars at GCSE for Oxford as they look closely at this

Another myth I'm afraid. Oxford looks at your GCSE results in context, so if you were at a top private school they would expect straight 8s & 9s, but you can get an offer with far less as DD proved.

From the Oxford website: Higher grades at GCSE can help to make your application more competitive, and successful applicants typically have a high proportion of A and A* grades or 7,8 and 9 grades. However, we do look at GCSE grades in context. Where possible, tutors will be made aware of the overall GCSE performance of the school or college where you studied.

@Hoghgyni

the feeling that you need pretty much all A stars at GCSE for Oxford as they look closely at this

Another myth I'm afraid. Oxford looks at your GCSE results in context, so if you were at a top private school they would expect straight 8s & 9s, but you can get an offer with far less as DD proved.

From the Oxford website: Higher grades at GCSE can help to make your application more competitive, and successful applicants typically have a high proportion of A and A* grades or 7,8 and 9 grades. However, we do look at GCSE grades in context. Where possible, tutors will be made aware of the overall GCSE performance of the school or college where you studied.

That's good to hear, @Hoghgyni
Im sure the unis want to see a good range of talented students (while not wanting personally to interview 500 over 1-4 days). I'm glad I'm not advising students where to apply and glad there are people like @Mumsneedwine doing a great job with that. (22 Oxbridge, 27 Durham, etc)

DD's Oxford offer is dependent on at least one A* in maths or FM.
I can also confirm the all 9s GCSE Oxford thing is a myth, depending, I suppose, on where the applicant went to school. DD isn't the fabled illiterate scientist, but her high grades in arts subjects were down to careful calculation on how to get the most marks rather than any particular aptitude. She did slip a grade or two in a couple of subjects, but her score was way, way higher than the average for her school.
Personally, all things being equal, I'd go with Oxford rather than Cambridge to avoid the horrible situation where the student is judged good enough after interview to be pooled, but nobody fishes them out. I say this as a mere observer of the process on MN. It looks ridiculously stressful.

@Iamsodone

Not familiar with the system at all, would someone mind explaining why you can’t apply to both at the same time ? Thanks

You're simply not allowed to apply to them both in the same year. The UCAS process presumably blocks you from doing so.

It is possible to apply to one one year and then (either because of no offer or I suppose changing your mind) apply to the other in a later year.

As to why you're not allowed to apply to both - given the excess of highly able applicants per place, I suppose it's just greedy and unfair if someone gets two offers, and also as discussed quite a lot of the courses aren't exactly comparable.

Oxford has a somewhat similar system to the Cambridge pool in that it’s pretty common for a student to be interviewed by more than one college, and accepted by one they didn’t apply to. Happened to DD.

My advice is to apply to the one that she can imagine herself living at. It's at least 3 years of your life and you need to feel comfortable there.

Also, it was 20 years ago but I was asked in my interview why I'd chosen to apply to the particular college and I genuinely said it was partly because of the strong women's football team. That then led to a pleasant ten minutes talking about football.

@DahliaMacNamara

DD's Oxford offer is dependent on at least one A* in maths or FM. I can also confirm the all 9s GCSE Oxford thing is a myth, depending, I suppose, on where the applicant went to school. DD isn't the fabled illiterate scientist, but her high grades in arts subjects were down to careful calculation on how to get the most marks rather than any particular aptitude. She did slip a grade or two in a couple of subjects, but her score was way, way higher than the average for her school. Personally, all things being equal, I'd go with Oxford rather than Cambridge to avoid the horrible situation where the student is judged good enough after interview to be pooled, but nobody fishes them out. I say this as a mere observer of the process on MN. It looks ridiculously stressful.

Wait a minute. Is the Oxford pool different! I know they do a thing where a college WILL take you back if no one else bites. Ouch re Cambridge pooling. I agree it's brutal. Not sure if I'd prefer to be pooled and not fished or not pooled at all. I wouldn't be able to let go of the 'What ifs'.

Ds is applying for 2022 entry.
His course has a 1:4 success rate for Cambridge and 1:5 for Oxford.
Typical offer is A*AA for Cambridge and AAA for Oxford.

He is more comfortable with the AAA of Oxford (current predictions are AAA) and feels he will like Oxford as a city more (bit bigger? We’ve been to neither).

I’ve been concerned about the 10x 9 at GCSE needed for Oxford rumour (he only has 6 8/9s) and I am mindful that the success rate is better at Cambridge. The biggest factor is he got on a widening access programme for Oxford and not for Cambridge. The courses are broadly similar.

@FlyingSquid

Oxford has a somewhat similar system to the Cambridge pool in that it’s pretty common for a student to be interviewed by more than one college, and accepted by one they didn’t apply to. Happened to DD.

But at least you know on the day, kind of? (Might have a second interview for comparison, not pooling). But if you only have one interview, you may be obsessing that they didn't pool you and it's over! I think we can agree all applications and especially ones with interviews are bruta!

@Shadedog

Ds is applying for 2022 entry. His course has a 1:4 success rate for Cambridge and 1:5 for Oxford. Typical offer is A*AA for Cambridge and AAA for Oxford.

He is more comfortable with the AAA of Oxford (current predictions are AAA) and feels he will like Oxford as a city more (bit bigger? We’ve been to neither).

I’ve been concerned about the 10x 9 at GCSE needed for Oxford rumour (he only has 6 8/9s) and I am mindful that the success rate is better at Cambridge. The biggest factor is he got on a widening access programme for Oxford and not for Cambridge. The courses are broadly similar.

Good luck to him and fingers crossed. Are the courses really similar at both schools? My DD thought hers were until she looked in-depth at the content and structure. I would definitely look at some YouTubes about the campuses and cities to compare, if you haven't been to either. And go in person if at all possible, as things open up. Even if you can't get inside individual colleges, it is really nice to walk around a uni and soak up the vibe. I really enjoyed the open days DD and I attended. I don't have any specific advice, as obviously I am newbie and clueless, but hoping he gets good guidance and has a smooth application and a great experience at uni.

Which subject Shadedog? Obviously a humanities but wondering which one.

Oxford class 8s, 9s and A*s the same for GCSEs, they don't all have to be 9s. You can check on the subject admissions feedback to see average scores of interviewees/offer holders.

There's no point in trying to play the stats. If you're doing that then you're clearly not choosing your university/college or even subject for the right reasons.

If you are confident in your own abilities, subject knowledge and grades (achieved and predicted), you should just apply to the university, subject and college of your choice.

It's not a lottery that you take a punt on. It's a process of selecting the very best. So be the best and you will be selected.

DD has several 7s in the mix at GCSE rather than a straight run of 9s or 8s. She wasn’t ‘the very best’ in her school at her chosen subject either. But I assume she interviewed/tested well.

The comment about Cambridge pooling candidates is not how it was for DD. She applied to college A, was interviewed by college A and came home. On "Cambridge offers day" a letter came from college B offering her a place. DD had never been there, so there was a lot of frantic googling. She & I went to visit in February half term and were made very welcome, so she accepted the offer, got the grades and has had 4 happy years there. The tutor who picked her out of the pool has been quite open about it and every time she does something good, he tells her how good he is at picking winners. I asked her to ask him for the lottery numbers....

@Malbecfan

The comment about Cambridge pooling candidates is not how it was for DD. She applied to college A, was interviewed by college A and came home. On "Cambridge offers day" a letter came from college B offering her a place. DD had never been there, so there was a lot of frantic googling. She & I went to visit in February half term and were made very welcome, so she accepted the offer, got the grades and has had 4 happy years there. The tutor who picked her out of the pool has been quite open about it and every time she does something good, he tells her how good he is at picking winners. I asked her to ask him for the lottery numbers....

Similar for my DD, except the college she was pooled to had an overnight offer holders event iirc at the start of Easter vac.

DD too received an offer this year from a college she had not applied to (although it happened to have been in her top 3 when trying to decide). She still has not seen it other than on the website.
I think the comment above might have been regarding the fact that students who are pooled but not pulled from the pool are informed on offer day that they were pooled. On some sites there have been reports that this upset students that "no one wanted them" effectively - I have to say that the experience of the students I know this year was the opposite in that they were pleased to be considered for the pool and glad to know it had happened even though they didn't get an offer.

@FlyingSquid

DD has several 7s in the mix at GCSE rather than a straight run of 9s or 8s. She wasn’t ‘the very best’ in her school at her chosen subject either. But I assume she interviewed/tested well.

Was that at Oxford or Cambridge? I think a few 7a are fine at Cambridge and even a 6 or lower if the student moved on to excellent A levels and is exceptional in some way (like a gifted mathematician) and/or interviews very well. Cant recall if I've heard of someone at Oxford with a 6...

@CinnamonJellyBeans

There's no point in trying to play the stats. If you're doing that then you're clearly not choosing your university/college or even subject for the right reasons.

If you are confident in your own abilities, subject knowledge and grades (achieved and predicted), you should just apply to the university, subject and college of your choice.

It's not a lottery that you take a punt on. It's a process of selecting the very best. So be the best and you will be selected.

This is true. One of the students I know whose college choice I thought hurt them had gone for a newer, non-central college, perhaps thinking it had better odds, but in her subject the odds were very poor. Maybe it was actually her favourite college though.

@Malbecfan

The comment about Cambridge pooling candidates is not how it was for DD. She applied to college A, was interviewed by college A and came home. On "Cambridge offers day" a letter came from college B offering her a place. DD had never been there, so there was a lot of frantic googling. She & I went to visit in February half term and were made very welcome, so she accepted the offer, got the grades and has had 4 happy years there. The tutor who picked her out of the pool has been quite open about it and every time she does something good, he tells her how good he is at picking winners. I asked her to ask him for the lottery numbers....

Yes, they were talking about the Oxford interviews, which seem very different. It seems the pooling conversations and choices are made at the time. So students stay up to 4 days, and may be called for additional interviews or not. So there's a lot of nervous speculation during those days. At Cambridge, usually you have your scheduled interviews and off you go, blissfully unaware of the pooling that may or may not happen a few weeks later.

Also @Malbecfan that's a wonderful example of pooling. for C applicants to hear. I can imagine if I fished someone I would be rooting for them to soar.

@bitheby

Also, it was 20 years ago but I was asked in my interview why I'd chosen to apply to the particular college and I genuinely said it was partly because of the strong women's football team. That then led to a pleasant ten minutes talking about football.

@bitheby that's a lovely story. I'm sure they were delighted to have a truly honest answer to that question!