Oxford v Cambridge: how do applications balance out?

[FingernailNibbler]

Silly question. Because you can only apply to Oxford OR Cambridge, how do applications stay stable year on year, or are there sometimes swings in preference (and do they cause panics at the unis)?
Do things stay stable because of students' preferences for the city/campus/vibe/course structure and content?
Do students sometimes try to play the numbers game and apply to one despite personally preferring the other? But does that just ensure a swing the other way the following year?

I looked at stats for one subject for 2020 (not an ideal year to compare thanks to inflated final acceptance rates, but couldn't find stats for Oxford 2019 by course). The numbers are amazingly close.
*MML 2020
Cambridge *
378 applications / 193 offers / 187 acceptances
Oxford
406 applications / 177 acceptances *
*
If just 50 C applicants had chosen O instead, it would be very unbalanced:
C 328
O 456

How is the balance in other subjects?
How do sixth forms/ O and C manage this?
Do you think it will ever become possible to apply for both Oxford AND Cambridge?

@PermanentTemporary

Ds is planning to apply to Cambridge because we live in Oxford. There's probably a chunk of applications like that.

Yes, definitely understand that.

@whiteroseredrose

I agree course structure has a lot to do with it. DS wanted to study physics. If he went to Cambridge he would have had to apply for Natural Sciences and continued with Chemistry/ Computing. Similarly DD has applied for Earth Sciences at Oxford. She would also have has to go for Nat Sci at Cambridge.

Plus Oxford is far easier to get to for us!

Yes. I hadn't really understood the differences in science courses. Thank you.

@Chilldonaldchill

I don't think people will ever be able to apply to both. The algorithms would be a nightmare. At the moment a very large majority of those getting an offer from one or the other will firm that university but pretty much only Oxford or Cambridge can say that. If you could supply to both then they wouldn't have a clue who preferred them over the other. In normal years dd's (state) school has over 25 people going to Cambridge and about 5 to Oxford. DD has an offer from Cambridge this year. I know that she and her friends feel/felt that Cambridge is more inclusive and diverse than Oxford. I have no idea whether they are correct. She preferred the city and the course. She would not have applied to Oxford even if she could apply to both - she really wanted to go to Cambridge but not because it's "Oxbridge" but because of the city itself.

Thank you @Chilldonaldchill Some very interesting points. I hadn't realised that Cambridge is now seen as more diverse, as I thought both were working hard on open days and earlier interactions with secondaries to attract a wider pool of applicants. Agree re the attraction of the cities. Perhaps some students from smaller towns prefer Oxford, with more city excitement. Being from London, my DD was happy with the laid-back small-town feel of Cambridge.

At dd's school and for her year, there were a number of reasons amongst the pupils who applied for Oxbridge (these are all their reasons so not my judgement at all):

• Natural Sciences at Cambridge vs the separate science courses at Oxford
• a perception that the maths course was better at Cambridge
• Different structures of the PPE type courses between the Unis
• English and medicine courses are structured differently too
• Preference for more of a City feel at Oxford
• Fear of a two A star (or higher) offer/doing STEP at Cambridge and a lower comparative offer at Oxford
• the feeling that you need pretty much all A stars at GCSE for Oxford as they look closely at this
• another pupil that they really didn't like was applying for the same course for one of the two so they applied to the other (!!)

And so on....like I said, not my reasons but reasons that 17 year olds have....

@JulesJules

We did privately think during the application process that D1 would have been better to go for single Hons at Cambridge (as DH had done) success rate 28%, rather than the joint Hons she applied for at Oxford (success rate 11%) and C is a lot easier for us to get to. But it was the course she wanted to do and it wasn't offered at Cambridge. Fortunately she got in. One of her friends from school is doing HSPS at C - not offered at at O. From her year at school, 3 got into Oxford and 5 got into Cambridge. They had a school trip taking in open days at both so I think after course considerations, people just chose the city &/or college they liked the look of.

Thanks @JulesJules the joint hons degrees are such difficult odds. It must be a brutal choice, deciding to go for the combination you truly want... or hedging your bets and doing just one. Oxford History and English 112 applications / 13 offers Physics and Philosophy 182 applications / 15 offers

I guess i've been thinking about how a different application choice can mean a different outcome. Even college choice is significant! Choosing "the other" university or a slightly different course may have changed the outcome. I guess one can drive oneself mad thinking about various permutations.
And @ErrolTheDragon good point about STEP!

I think there are some stereotypes at play too. If I was thinking of studying maths or science I would naturally think of Cambridge. If I was a budding politician who wanted to study politics and/or economics I would want Oxford.

I think Oxford has more of a posh Bullingdon Club type reputation too. It really put my daughter off and she only reluctantly agreed to attend an open day there. Fortunately that dispelled any fears she had and she ended up preferring it to Cambridge.

@Abetes

At dd's school and for her year, there were a number of reasons amongst the pupils who applied for Oxbridge (these are all their reasons so not my judgement at all):

• Natural Sciences at Cambridge vs the separate science courses at Oxford
• a perception that the maths course was better at Cambridge
• Different structures of the PPE type courses between the Unis
• English and medicine courses are structured differently too
• Preference for more of a City feel at Oxford
• Fear of a two A star (or higher) offer/doing STEP at Cambridge and a lower comparative offer at Oxford
• the feeling that you need pretty much all A stars at GCSE for Oxford as they look closely at this
• another pupil that they really didn't like was applying for the same course for one of the two so they applied to the other (!!)

And so on....like I said, not my reasons but reasons that 17 year olds have....

All good points, @Abetes Thank you. And yes, reasons for choosing one over the other may be lofty or 'lowly' (such as not wanting to end up on a staircase or in class with someone you don't like) but still matter! So many decisions for such young people to make about the course they want to study / potential careers. Not everyone is so certain at 16. My DD was set on applying to Oxford thanks to school trips but when she looked at the course (MML) she preferred C and then fell in love with the city. Interesting that the UK language courses generally mean studying 2 (or 3) languages, while at US unis like Harvard it seems more normal to study only one. So many permutations.

@Fifthtimelucky

I think there are some stereotypes at play too. If I was thinking of studying maths or science I would naturally think of Cambridge. If I was a budding politician who wanted to study politics and/or economics I would want Oxford.

I think Oxford has more of a posh Bullingdon Club type reputation too. It really put my daughter off and she only reluctantly agreed to attend an open day there. Fortunately that dispelled any fears she had and she ended up preferring it to Cambridge.

Good points, @Fifthtimelucky I know a budding politician doing PPE at Oxford. It's quite different from the HSPS at C, for sure. Agree re reputations and the need to dig beneath that to form your own impressions. And the current students will be contributing to the future reputations/impressions of their unis/colleges. Also being there in person to look around has such an impact. I was very impressed with Trinity College Cambridge, for instance, but the grand lawns and buildings didn't do much for my DD. She trusted her own vibes. Now if I had been applying....

The subject I did is only offered at Cambridge. I could've done a similar course at Oxford but I didn't like the feel of the place as much as Cambridge. They are different universities with a different ethos and so I suspect they attract different applicants as a result.

@bitheby

The subject I did is only offered at Cambridge. I could've done a similar course at Oxford but I didn't like the feel of the place as much as Cambridge. They are different universities with a different ethos and so I suspect they attract different applicants as a result.

Yes but how does it stay in balance? Are some years skewed with many many more applicants on certain courses at one or the other? I just don't understand how it can be so stable, when you're looking at 17 year-olds' preferences for a city or course.

Same as with all the universities I suspect. Perhaps as reputations grow or new courses emerge, applications go up but Oxford and Cambridge have pretty well established reputations already and don't change courses often.

If there are similar numbers of children born each year and a similar distribution of intelligence then there are only x number of potential applicants each year and with their individual preferences and strategies for getting in then it stays in balance. When I applied I know people who chose a particular college tactically to try to maximise their chances of getting in. If one suddenly became popular, next year mor would apply to the other.

Getting in is part luck but mostly passion. If you have a solid reason for applying to the college and the course and the academic potential to succeed, you've got a good chance.

Yes but how does it stay in balance? Are some years skewed with many many more applicants on certain courses at one or the other? I just don't understand how it can be so stable, when you're looking at 17 year-olds' preferences for a city or course.

Just statistical probability on a quite large number of potential applicants, I'd have thought. The cohorts and the decisions they're making probably won't vary much on a 'population' level each year.

@bitheby

Same as with all the universities I suspect. Perhaps as reputations grow or new courses emerge, applications go up but Oxford and Cambridge have pretty well established reputations already and don't change courses often.

If there are similar numbers of children born each year and a similar distribution of intelligence then there are only x number of potential applicants each year and with their individual preferences and strategies for getting in then it stays in balance. When I applied I know people who chose a particular college tactically to try to maximise their chances of getting in. If one suddenly became popular, next year mor would apply to the other.

Getting in is part luck but mostly passion. If you have a solid reason for applying to the college and the course and the academic potential to succeed, you've got a good chance.

All good points. I really don't know how all the universities deal with the known unknowns each year, not to mention when students don't make their offer but people you turned down do. I guess some courses at some unis have to watch incremental changes in numbers firming/insuring them v their 'competitors' and ensure they're making their course as attractive as possible/polling people at open days and afterwards re what they like/don't like about the course. Nightmare. I guess if they made offers after results, there would be more clarity on one aspect of things. Glad I'm not in charge. And everyone else should be glad of that too!

Interesting that the numbers stay so constant year on year. You would have thought that some news stories might cause a surge in popularity (possibly less likely to cause unpopularity as serious applicants will have done their homework or even play the odds and apply to the one they think will be less attractive)? The popularity of particular colleges is evened out by them 'pooling' applicants. Overall, I think that (luckily) most are happy with where they end up.

@ErrolTheDragon

Yes but how does it stay in balance? Are some years skewed with many many more applicants on certain courses at one or the other? I just don't understand how it can be so stable, when you're looking at 17 year-olds' preferences for a city or course.

Just statistical probability on a quite large number of potential applicants, I'd have thought. The cohorts and the decisions they're making probably won't vary much on a 'population' level each year.

True, but in the smaller courses it wouldn't take much for a dramatic swing one way or the other. I think I am a bit upset for three unsuccessful 2021 applicants I know, all of whom (I believe) made strategic choices (1 on a joint hons course choice, 2 on college choice) that negatively affected their outcomes. All will be well, I'm sure, it just niggles. Now I'm wondering about when you apply for joint hons and they suggest you switch to single. It must mean they really want you!

Not familiar with the system at all, would someone mind explaining why you can’t apply to both at the same time ? Thanks

DS1's reasons for Oxford rather than Cambridge

• course - wanted to do just Chemistry and not as part of NatSci
• liked Oxford as a city more than Cambridge (possibly because it poured with rain at the Cambridge open day)
• family links with Oxford and Oxfordshire
• easier to get to from SW London

Really it was course that swung it. The other reasons just validated the choice.

Funnily enough DD is favouring Oxford over Cambridge for 2022...

@FingernailNibbler just to make it clear - I don't know that Cambridge is more diverse but my children attend a relatively diverse school and, although they happen to be white, many of their friends are not. Those friends report that they feel more comfortable at Cambridge than Oxford which has led to a much higher number applying there. However I don't know what the statistics show about diversity. (And this is not about "class" diversity as they're at a very middle class school, only about ethnic heritage).

@sandybayley

DS1's reasons for Oxford rather than Cambridge

• course - wanted to do just Chemistry and not as part of NatSci
• liked Oxford as a city more than Cambridge (possibly because it poured with rain at the Cambridge open day)
• family links with Oxford and Oxfordshire
• easier to get to from SW London

Really it was course that swung it. The other reasons just validated the choice.

Funnily enough DD is favouring Oxford over Cambridge for 2022...

I hadn't really taken into account that one may be much easier to get to than the other based on your location. And the opposite: that some who live very near one or the other want to get away. The course thing is really interesting. I hadn't known that the difference was so great for science applicants. Interesting.

I expect there is an algorithm or two involved.

DD is at vet school at Cambridge so didn't have to choose. My DS is studying medicine elsewhere and chose not to apply to either. His 4 housemates all applied to Oxford and were all rejected but ended up getting at least 3 A. They chose to apply to Oxford instead of Cambridge due to the higher grade requirement at Cambridge. My DD had to get the A in a specified subject as a college requirement and that does ramp the pressure up more than being in any subject.

@bitheby

I expect there is an algorithm or two involved.

Ahhhh. This explains my lack of understanding perfectly.

@Lovecatsanddogs

DD is at vet school at Cambridge so didn't have to choose. My DS is studying medicine elsewhere and chose not to apply to either. His 4 housemates all applied to Oxford and were all rejected but ended up getting at least 3 A. They chose to apply to Oxford instead of Cambridge due to the higher grade requirement at Cambridge. My DD had to get the A in a specified subject as a college requirement and that does ramp the pressure up more than being in any subject.

Interesting that at C you need an A star in a specific subject, even though many of the courses cover more than one subject, while O has single-subject sciences but only requires A in your specialism.

DS1 had to get 2 x A star and an A fir Chemistry at Oxford. A star in Chemistry and another in Maths or Physics.

@Abetes
"- the feeling that you need pretty much all A stars at GCSE for Oxford as they look closely at this"

Yes, the genera gist seems to be that C has more open attitude about 'progression' and will interview someone who didn't have it all together at GCSE – I suppose this also helps people who are very strong in their particular subject, but not across the board. Say, math bods who don't care for literature or insightful humanities students who don't care for maths, etc.
But yes, I think if I had a couple of Bs at GCSE, I'd definitely apply to C over O.