Oxbridge 2020 (thread 10) - the path to the first term (just one slight hurdle to clear first)

[DadDadDad]

For better or worse, there is a bit of a bond of mutual experience between parents whose DC go through the Oxbridge application process. Thank you for your companionship so far - and thank you to others who started the earlier threads in this series.

This thread should take us to the start of the first term (whatever form that takes). All welcome here, but for many of us hopefully this will be the place for practical support as we help prepare these peculiar* young adults to spread their wings.

But the first item on the agenda appears to be the small matter of judgement...

*or for those who chose Oxford, very peculiar.

@MarchingFrogs @pa1oma It is fairly common for schools to agree to give predicted grades for university applications that are slightly higher than the level that pupil is working at, if they are needed to secure an offer. The logic being that the pupil may well improve over the rest of the year and achieve that grade or else the university will still take them with a dropped grade. If the CAG turns out to be lower than predicted grades given in Sept/Oct last year, I would say that shows the school has actually been rigorous in calculating the grades honestly, based on how the pupil performed up until March.

Often the issues that hold first years back are not strictly academic ones, but study skills issues: in particular, issues around time management, note-taking, and essay writing. These issues don’t resolve around a state/independent divide - plenty of students from academically selective schools struggle with these issues. Some students have also been so focused on the goal of getting in to Oxford that it can come as a bit of a shock to realise that it is not a destination, but a new academic beginning, and that to do well will require just as much if not more of a sustained effort than getting there did in the first place. If the aim was getting in at all costs for a subject the student doesn’t truly love, that can prove very challenging. The first year is designed to get them all up to speed, and doesn’t count towards their degree. 40% at prelims will do.

If the CAG turns out to be lower than predicted grades given in Sept/Oct last year, I would say that shows the school has actually been rigorous in calculating the grades honestly, based on how the pupil performed up until March.

My point exactly. Certainly completely wrong to rank a student artificially high in the cohort, based on university offer, but equally wrong (and would involve the collusion of senior staff and so, so, open to challenge, if the said student's recorded assessments all indicate higher ability) to deliberately 'do them down'.

@MidLifeCrisis007 I agree with you that the pressure is increased on next year's applicants, and that they too will be unfairly affected by this. However, your idea of "weeding out" students at the end of the first term is frankly horrifying. Firstly, it can take at least two terms for students to find their feet and get used to the workload. Secondly, (and perhaps more worryingly) students like me who are not diagnosed with a disability until part way through the first year would be kicked out through no fault of our own. It's fairly common for Oxbridge students with e.g. Specific Learning Difficulties, ADHD etc not to be diagnosed before they get to university, simply bc they can use their intelligence to cover their difficulties. With appropriate support and reasonable adjustments such as extra time in exams, I'm working at a high 2:1 / 1st, but the Collections (mocks) I took before diagnosis did not reflect this, so weeding people out based on an end of first term exam would be unfair at best. Students with a variety of disabilities may also take longer than usual to adapt to the new environment, which compounds the issue.

Blimey, I really think y13s have been through enough without having an end of first term cull hanging over them. They'll have had 7 months with no formal education, they will need support and help, not threats, if they are struggling to begin with.

@DadDadDad, can't let your post from yesterday go by! DS shuffled a bit then muttered something about an algorithm that had one data input (CAG) and a big button marked 'get your results here'.

I think, like a lot of yr 13s, he is exhausted by it all and finding it difficult to process what is happening to his peer group.

I don’t understand why a year 13 Oxbridge hopeful would not have at least finished off subject content and picked up a relevant book since March, regardless of whether teaching was on offer or not.

@flowerrful it sounds like you are dealing with the stress of an extended pool very reasonably! Fingers crossed for good news finally this week - whether that is getting in to Cambridge, or to a no doubt wonderful insurance/alternative.

I think the reality is the system was done wrong - they can’t just award CAGs because that wouldn’t be fair on the universities, as they’re so much higher than previous years, and unis can’t just give everyone with offers spaces because they all over-offer, even Oxbridge (albeit to a lesser extent). I think it’s unfair that exam “resits” cost in October because, while a pain, I think being able to sit an actual exam is going to be the simplest way to appeal an existing grade, as mocks are conducted so differently across schools and attitudes to them vary so widely.

Obviously it’s irrelevant now but I’d say they should either have done CAGs but told teachers how many of each grade they had, and then they could appeal on a case by case basis for an extra C/B/A* etc, or they should have gone ahead with exams. Students could maybe just have done 1 paper instead of the 2 or 3 that most subjects do so that exams could be more spread out and have no clashes to minimise numbers on site, or cutting exams for subjects with 60%+ in coursework and just awarding coursework grades. Then at least there would be some foundation behind the grades and pupils would have some autonomy.

I think the people who have had EPQs marked down is the most ridiculous and highlights the stupidity of the system they did come up with.

ofteninaspin- I don’t disagree with you there, but I wasn’t talking about Oxbridge hopefuls, more the discrepancies that have existed in online provision between schools and the obvious inequalities that have been hugely magnified since the home environment has become the school environment.

The Oxbridge deadline is mid-October and many students still don’t even have their predicted grades yet because these will be pending the September exams.

No problem quest, my response was related to those with places unprepared for first term.

New College have confirmed all undergraduate offers
twitter.com/NewCollegeOx/status/1295300534228975616?s=20

I was talking about this with ds, just graduated. The year after his had a third as many students, and the next year more. He said it wasn't the accommodation so much, as the lack of space in the library and dining hall. Formal/super halls got fully booked up immediately, and he said the library was really crowded and its charming higgledy-piggledyness was a problem when too many students were trying to cram in and there were some spats about saving places. I don't know how this is all going to work with social distancing!

Agree, Irma. It really doesn't seem sensible to max out on numbers during a pandemic. DD1 is anticipating a very long socially distanced lunch queue next term!

I see from Twitter that a Times journo has broken the story that the govt is going to go with CAG now. What a complete shambles this whole thing is. It was a mess before, and it's going to be even more of a mess now -- will people with newly improved grades be able to go back to their first choice universities (which will now be full, presumably?). Will anyone believe anyone's grades now, if they are 40% higher overall than in previous years? I don't necessarily disagree with using CAGs, but to switch to them now, at the thirteenth hour, seems absolutely crazy to me.

Computer grades officially scrapped. Probably the fairest thing to do but what a shameful mess. No places at unis which are bound to honour offers as grades were achieved.

Could this govt have made more of a shambles of this. What about all the students who have confirmed their second choices or gone through clearing, only to return to their first choice course now to find its full? What a mess! GW needs to go now.

In terms of Cambridge, I think they made 150 conditional offers last year for 105 places on the course DS was thinking of applying to. Are they expected to jury squidge the extra 45 in then? Or will they push most of them into next year’s cohort so there will be considerably less places for these students - many of whom will be even more disadvantaged due to already having missed 20% of teaching and likely more to come. Does this govt have any foresight about anything whatsoever? All that stress for nothing. They could have given out the grades weeks ago.

If there’s more than about 20 deferrals for next year for DS’ course, I think I might suggest he defers for 2022 now and applies with his grades because It’s stressful enough the odds are stacked as it is without this as well.

What a complete shambles. Feeling very sorry for the universities who have to navigate through this mess.

GW needs to go now As does head of Ofqual. Rumblings in DH circles that she was useless when she was in Government Procurement, and now useless in Ofqual. Beggars belief how a procurement specialist (and we know how good government are at that!), ends up in a role within education, with no background in that. Same old, same old.

DS now upgraded to 3 A stars. I'm sure it's the same for many of the DC on this thread.

DH is chuntering about grades being devalued this year because of unscrupulous teachers over-inflating predictions. I'm not so sure. So I asked him what grades DS would have achieved if exams had gone ahead and how certain he was about this. "3 A stars", he answered, "with 85% certainty". So, have I not won the argument? If everybody's predicted grades were made on that basis wouldn't we have a large chunk of the observed "grade inflation" without any need for unscrupulous teachers? I need a mathmo to help...

I feel so sorry for people in admissions. Universities must be peed off that this decision wasn't made before results came out. I know of a boy who missed his Bristol offer by one grade (and CAGs were identical to awarded grades for him) and was accepted because there was space. But now Bristol will have many people coming to claim their places with higher grades. So do they still honour the place for this boy? Maybe it will work out because some of their accepted offers are from people who will now go to Durham etc. etc. Such a mess. I wonder if there is a case for tearing up all university decisions made to date (including clearing) and starting again? There is no good solution but the flip-flopping from the government sure has made it harder.

Hi All, it's been a while.

Delighted to hear of successes and so very sad to hear of those who just missed out on their first choice, especially those who had been on this journey with us all from the start.

As I started the first thread I felt for closure I should pop in and update you all. Life in the care home has been hellish and my lovely DS has been such a huge help working with us in lockdown that I was so, so happy for him to get 4 x A*.

He is off to Warwick as he hoped and planned and couldn't be happier.

I wish you and your children all the very best for the future.

@GinWorksForMe, that's stunning. You must have had such an awful year and I'm so delighted that you've all got such a great result! Well done to your DS, I'm sure he will love Warwick.

This was what St Edmund Hall Oxford said yesterday explaining why they are hounouring all their offers:
Over the weekend, St Edmund Hall has reviewed the applications of all students who missed their conditional offers when A-level grades were released last Thursday. It is apparent that a disproportionally large proportion of those students that missed their offers were from the state sector. The college had already taken the decision to make offers unconditional for a significant number of students but, in light of the growing concern around the process by which grades were assigned and can be appealed this year, it has looked again at the cases of those students whose places were not initially confirmed

Paul Johnson in The Times today also confirms who was advantaged by the Ofqual system and who was disadvantaged
First, and most obvious, the process adopted favours schools with small numbers of students sitting any individual A-level. That is, it favours private schools. If you have up to five students doing an A-level, you simply get the grades predicted by the teacher. If between five and fifteen, teacher-assigned grades get some weight. More than 15 and they get no weight. Teacher predictions are always optimistic. Result: there was a near-five percentage point increase in the fraction of entries from private schools graded at A or AIn contrast, sixth-form and further education colleges saw their A and A grades barely rise — up only 0.3 per cent since 2019 and down since 2018. This is a manifest injustice. No sixth-form or FE college has the funding to support classes of fifteen, let alone five. The result, as Chris Cook, a journalist and education expert, has written: “Two university officials have told me they have the poshest cohorts ever this year because privately educated kids got their grades, the universities filled and there’s no adjustment/clearing places left

Lovely to hear from you @GinWorksForMe - we've all come a long way. Thank you for your amazing work to support care home residents - and also to your very talented son. Warwick is lucky to have him.