University 2020 :6: The one with the results at the end

[MillicentMartha]

Hopefully as the title suggests we will actually get up to results on this thread! Only 5 weeks to go.

Old thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/higher_education/3918392-University-2020-5-Results-day-approaching-and-beyond?pg=40

There is outlier provision!

Someone said that on another thread. (Maybe you, in which case apologies for repeating the question.) But where have you seen that information? I know that there was in SQA model, but despite having spent a lot of time reading everything released by OFQUAL, I have caught no mention of that at all.

Yes it was me. I will pm you.

Thanks v much!

I haven't read anything from Ofqual that is specifically about outlier provision - apart from the "opportunity" to sit Autumn exams.

This responds to the (rubbish) TES article. They really need to be sure of facts before writing nonsense.

www.gov.uk/government/news/response-to-tes-story-about-centre-assessment-grades

I don't think everything in the TES article was rubbish - where OfQual have said in a vague way that for smaller entries more weight will be placed on CAG rather than historic outcomes, TES explained the banding between 5, 5 -15, 15+ entrants, which was a new insight (assuming it's reliable).

I will be taking the TES article with a huge pinch of salt. I think they are just trying to protect the teachers from those students and their parents who are disappointed next week. Blame it on the moderation.

You can ask for the school’s CAG (and ranking if it doesn’t give away others’ information) with a SAR. Some schools will give that information out on the day.

If the results hadn’t been moderated, they would have been much too high and therefore not properly valued. Schools that were overly optimistic would have benefitted over ones that were more honest and realistic. There will always be some winners and losers but the moderation is actually trying to make things fairer. Shouting ‘not fair’ is not appropriate, although I can understand individual concerns.

TES said small cohorts would just get their CAGs. They won't. And it said big cohorts would have CAGs ignored. . Which they won't. As a teacher this annoyed me as I spent ages on them and they were pretty accurate I thought. Having done lots of statistical analysts they also fit very nicely with our historical dats so I'm now hopeful they will be kept. Ignoring them would mean a couple would be wrong.
As a parent I would like my DD to get the grades her teachers believed she should get. As have been on every progress report in6th form. As this seems fair.

Thank you OfQual! I hope that goes some way to putting people's minds at rest. In particular the end of the second paragraph!

TES said small cohorts would just get their CAGs. They won't.

@mumsneedwine - how do you know this, given the precise model hasn't been published? The OfQual blog yesterday said this:

Where centres have entered a small number of students in a subject (either this year, or in the historical data), which is much more the case at A level than GCSE, we will rely much more on the CAGs than the statistics.

This is what I'd expect - once you get down to very small numbers, you can't make statistically credible adjustments, so you would need to let CAGs stand. The TES article suggests "the very small number" is below 5 unless you know otherwise.

TES said small cohorts would just get their CAGs. They won't.

I think that part of TES stuff is accurate actually as it's in line with OFQUAL's own notes on the summer symposium slide about small CAG's, which revealed that the "very smallest cohorts" would be awarded their CAG's.

Slide 19, “Centres with small numbers of candidates entered in each subject”

“For centres with a small entry in the subject it is also necessary to take a slightly different approach which draws on the centre assessment grades more directly. Where a centre has either a small number of candidates entering for a subject this year or has had a small number of candidates entering in the past, it would be technically unsound to use the statistical evidence in the same way. The intention is therefore for exam boards to balance the sources of evidence differently depending on the number of candidates. Where the number of candidates is very small, those candidates will be awarded their centre assessment grades. Where there are slightly more candidates and we have slightly more confidence in the statistics, exam boards will be giving some weight to the centre assessment grades and some weight to the statistical evidence in a tapered way as the number of candidates increases.

Sorry - about small *cohorts, not about small CAGs.

www.gov.uk/government/news/response-to-tes-story-about-centre-assessment-grades

OFQUAL are not happy with TES !!

The blog at the end of that response is encouraging as well. It specifically mentions that appeals on behalf of outliers can be made.

Indeed I believe they will attempt to deal with outliers within the process where possible too so that it needn't get to appeal. It goes back to if the centre is sensible in respect of all their other grades then the exam board is likely to find the outlier results credible. It is good to see it clarified within the appeals though as with 5 million different results as they say some errors are inevitable.

I was told recently that any old bod can submit an article to TES to print in their "news". (Pure gossip with no actual source). I am not sure whether they do any form of fact checking at all

What will be, will be (unless my DD is downgraded, then it's an outrage!)

That’s a good way of looking at it DadDadDad, that CAGs have been used to build the statistical model

@JufusMum congratulations to your DD
Can’t believe there’s less than a week to go until the results now. We’d bought some stuff, but now DD wants to wait until after the results. By which point we’ll hopefully know which accommodation she’s been offered.

Congrats to your dd @JufusMum !
Ds just got email from school saying they Can collect results in person ( with parents) or have them emailed. Ds chosen to have them emailed as he knows he will be disappointed with results. Bit gutted tbh as was The one time I was allowed into get results . But it's his choice. Feel a bit sick about the whole thing now.

Apologies for the DM link, but I’m really hoping this is just scaremongering. Why would they ignore all the teachers predictions?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8605231/A-level-pupils-England-face-lower-marks-expected-39-grades-downgraded.html

@idsisatwat - if you read back on the thread you'll see that that DM story is just a rehash of the TES story from yesterday. Read the DfE and Ofqual responses.

@sandybayley thanks, I will have a proper look later. Unfortunately am working all weekend.
I just saw that headline and panicked a bit I think. Normally I'd take it all with a big pinch if salt, but think I'm getting stressed with DD!!

All those panicking, just remember the grades this year will be higher than they have ever been before and most students will have the grades they would have got in a normal year or better. For Scottish students there was a 20% increase in the relative proportion of A grades given, there will be more top grades than usual in England too, although unlikely to be 20% more.

Every year students get some disappointing results. DS1 missed an A in Physics by less than 1% last year because the grade boundary was higher than it had ever been and a lower percentage of A was awarded than previous years, which is no different from a downgrade due to algorithm. Now that the definition of changes in cohorts has been broadened to include those with different ability levels, schools will be able to appeal if the algorithm unfairly affects a subject cohort - see www.gov.uk/government/news/appeal-arrangements-for-as-a-levels-and-gcses

The DM article complains that individual students will not be able to appeal, but as the teacher ranking is the one immovable thing which few people disagree with, an individual appeal would not make sense this year.