University 2020 :5: Results day approaching and beyond

[MillicentMartha]

Old thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/higher_education/3855474-University-2020-4-The-wait-for-grades-and-better-days-ahead?pg=40

Less than 3 months to go until we have a better idea what the future has in store for our DC. Let’s hope that even if most lectures are online that accommodation is open and they can move up, across or down to their university towns and start their student life.

We should have been in the middle of exams, instead we have this strange limbo of lockdown. It could have been worse, though.

Those that have Oxbridge offers will by their nature have already achieved at a sufficiently high level which gave them excellent predicted grades anyway so it will of course, as Oneteen has stated, be quite easy for schools , especially those with large cohorts to secure a candidate with an Oxbridge offer their grades. Presumably they are able to do this because they will have seen their student already working at a high enough standard to enable the application.

However, this is probably more likely at Oxford where many of the offers are at a lower level than Cambridge eg AAA offers rather than A*AA. However the pupil will have jumped through the necessary hoops already to earn that offer and it is definitely more the exception than the rule that an Oxford offer is missed. Cambridge makes higher offers as they have a less stringent pre-offer policy (or at least historically in the absence of pretesting, and still may not have enough data to use it properly. Indeed they have dropped some of the pretests for 2021). Cambridge Maths is where there is usually over offering and that is sorted by STEP grading. Cambridge actually sees the STEP papers whereas the other unis using STEP do not.

Cambridge also operates the typical offer system rather than the standard offer that Oxford does. So if you get an offer at Oxford it is the offer they advertise. Cambridge continues to weed out further by setting higher offers for some candidates and basically says Let us see, if you can meet this higher offer then yes we will want you. Sometimes if you are at a perceived better school they expect a higher standard of you and thus make a higher offer. For example, one friend's child has an A*AA NatSci offer and another wants 2 xAstar and an A. Same Cambridge college.

How can teachers be heading to the Far East at the end of term? Travel is not allowed and also most countries there have closed borders.

I assume those taking up work posts in places like the UEA will be able to travel... I know the new HT at Dds school is expected to be situ in mid July and the school have stated she will quarantine for 14 days... I assume she's a UK resident anyhow and just returning having ended her contract.

Woah. I hope you are right @Oratory1.
Am quite shocked at some of the thoughts on this thread.
Also saddened that some people genuinely seem to think an Oxbridge offer to Pupil X is any more important than a different University offer is to pupil Y
Every teacher I know is genuinely a lot fairer and has more integrity than that. I think to suggest otherwise is pretty offensive to be honest.

re leaving :
A friend of mine (not teacher) moved jobs at Easter after 34 years in the same place. So weird to not have a 'gathering' of any kind.

I was talking to dd today about what people who have turned 18 during this time are doing, and overwhelmingly, the answer is 'nothing'. There are just too many, and by the time they are able to have any sort of safe gathering friends will be scattered far and wide around the country. I've a friend who has had to cancel her 40th, and sh'es fine, shes just "staying 39" until she is allowed to have a party - but no-one want to "stay 17"

@BackforGood... Oxbridge applicants and Medics have already gone through several levels of screening.... Unlike the normal Uni applications therefore I do think that having jumped through those hurdles to loose their offers by standisation is wrong... My daughters not an Oxbridge applicant so I have no vested interest but I would hate my child to loose her place by a system that looks at historical performance of that school.. Other Unis may may exceptions I doubt whether Oxford will.

Dds friends have managed to meet up for some 18th...last week they had pizza/procesco in the park.. Small group but better than nothing... . They (6)are all meeting up again on Sunday to celebrate another birthday... Its not the same but you just have to make the most of it....

Am quite shocked at some of the thoughts on this thread.
Also saddened that some people genuinely seem to think an Oxbridge offer to Pupil X is any more important than a different University offer is to pupil Y

Every teacher I know is genuinely a lot fairer and has more integrity than that. I think to suggest otherwise is pretty offensive to be honest.

@BackforGood thankyou, I was beginning to think I was on my own, I'm shocked and saddened too.

@SeasonFinale it may not be that unusual for people to miss Oxford offers, my niece managed it (needed AAA, got A*AB). At Cambridge it is only Maths which has a high number of people who don't quite manage to make the offer.

Teachers SHOULD grade blind to consequences of the grading, but it will be very difficult for teachers to give grades which mean that their students miss out on offers they have worked hard to get and the truth is that Oxbridge/medicine offers are high profile within a school and teachers may find it difficult to forget the offers for this process. The feeling of responsibility for disappointed students is the reason I do not think many schools will have students in for results day. Of course it will not be the teachers' fault, but the emotional recipients of bad news might not think that.

I am expecting fewer people to miss Oxbridge grades than usual.

I don't think it's because the Oxbridge/Medicine offers are more important... Its more the fact that they have been screened... They have sat additional exams like Ukcat and screening exams... They have had interviews.... Then to have a computer algorithm say sorry your schools results over the last three years mean you would not have achieved that A*is wrong...

I happen to think the final standardisation is questionable... Isnt Ofqual saying they don't trust teachers grading is some respects.... I know they want to keep exam results in line with previous years results but it's very clear including the ranking is because they think some schools will inflate grades..

I really feel sad for every child that misses their Uni offer by standisation...

OneTeen - they shouldn't though because there is also the additional layer of prior cohort attainment which adjusts the standardisation too to be in line with what they expect of this year's cohort.

There are also 2 layers of perceived bias adjustment too.

Well that thread ran away whilst I was at work. It's feasible that DD will get 2x A* B rather than the AAA she needs. We checked with Durham if there would be any wriggle room in their offer for an insurance place and they said no, hence the insurance place at York.

If she does drop a grade, it is what it is. I will be gutted for her as she worked so hard to get the offer, but focusing on that before Christmas and coursework in January meant she blew the only maths mock she had the chance to sit. Mechanics was never my strong point & she must have inherited the genes from me! I know that at least one of her teachers isn't even aware that she is holding an Oxford offer and HoDs & the SLT are unlikely to know who she is.

@oneteen - I happen to think the final standardisation is questionable... Isnt Ofqual saying they don't trust teachers grading is some respects

I have to say I don't agree. Remember it's always been the case that teacher-marked coursework has been subject to external moderation - not because teachers are suspected of inflating marks for their pupils, but to ensure some level of consistency, and to provide some comfort that it's a rigorous, transparent, fair system. (Yes, I know there are bad cases of moderation, but that doesn't change the principle).

So, I think there has to been some external check on the grades assessed by the teachers - otherwise, just think of the suspicions and insinuations that will be levelled at schools that get very good grades (unjustified suspicions, no doubt, but still damaging).

However, I think in the current circumstances they should set the tolerance quite broadly, ie only moving grades down or up where it significantly differs from both prior results in the school AND the expected attainment of the cohort of pupils based on their GCSE grades.

Totally agree that the main purpose of standisation is to provide consistency across the board and ensure each year's cohorts maintain the same standards year on year.

However Ofqual have not accepted that predicted grades can be used which are given out by the same teacher's/schools... Why because they have been proven to be inaccurate... So would you not want to check the teachers assessed grades given their record on predicted grades?

I don’t think @BackforGood is in the minority if you read back, @ShiningTor. I have confidence in teachers’ professionalism to assign rankings fairly. Grades are moveable but rankings aren’t. My head of department would be horrified at the thought of positive bias towards Oxbridge candidates. That’s a state super selective grammar. Results this year won’t go towards making league tables in the state system anyway, probably to avoid just this sort of thing.

Private schools who have to promote their sixth forms might have more pressure to show good results, I suppose. I’m glad there are checks and balances in place.

Oxbridge offers are definitely a bit of a lottery. There are many equally able candidates who didn’t get an Oxbridge offer or even apply at my school, some of whom will be quite fairly ranked higher than those who did get offers.

I don't disagree with many of the comments..but I don't have the same level of confidence in schools in terms of protecting certain offers.. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised...

Last year there were 663 DC that missed Oxford grades... Not sure about Cambridge stats. I would expect more DC to achieve their grades this year because exam pressure is removed although this must be across the board with all students rather than just Oxbridge...or do they factor in DC who fluff exams. So it will be interesting to see how many DC do miss their Oxbridge offers this year...

I think I read somewhere that only 17 percent of predicted grades are correct... Probably because they are issued far to early but it doesn't in my opinion portray confidence. Nor does the fact that Ofqual will put more weight on historical data than teacher assessment .. I guess historical data should help to maintain grade quotas.

My head of department would be horrified at the thought of positive bias towards Oxbridge candidates. That’s a state super selective grammar.

Millicent, I'm rather more cynical than you on that particular score :)

I have a Year 12 DS who was set to apply for a course at Cambridge, but now on TSR there is talk about the odds being better at Oxford next year because Cambridge is allowing guaranteed deferrals for students if they fail to get the grades via teacher assessment, but then manage to succeed in the Autumn “retakes.”

I don’t know what to think really. Do people on here think this is a factor worth consideration?

Both would ask A*AA, but I guess there’s a chance Cambridge might ask higher due to the type of school he’s in?

The courses are very similar and this year’s cohort haven’t had the chance to go to open days anywhere anyway, so just going off website impressions.

Not even sure if schools will go back full time in September, or if A-level exams will be as normal, or a combination of exam / teacher assessment. The govt only seem to be only focused on primary schools. The uncertainty and isolation is very difficult for those with exams looming though, because the pressure has still been there since schools closed. Just no info! Not sure what to advise him to do really.

@enougha1ready it would probably be better to ask this question on the Oxbridge thread - may already be discussed there.

goodbyestranger my head of department has fairly strong views on equality. What she’s doing teaching in a grammar school, I don’t know!

I think it would be deeply unfair for schools to protect Oxbridge candidates. Why? The exam boards will be using algorithms and ranking to prevent grade inflation by schools. Some students already got inflated predictions because their teachers knew that's what they would need to get into Oxbridge - which they 'knew' would then go on to be tested by the exam system. I hope most teachers and schools are more ethical than this. Its like allotting grades on who you like.

On a wider point the unversities are in big financial trouble many making budget cuts of 20 percent or more across the board, cancelling visiting professrships and sabbaticals etc, a lot of staff have been furloughed. 17- 20 universities are on the brink of collapse - eg. SOAS - (who have been teetering on the edge for years). Foreign student numbers (the big earners) are likely to collapse and there will be an over-supply of places for the number of students so many students with grades lower than their offer will get in or be able to shop around and potentially get better places/universities than if they apply next year when demand and supply are expected to be more closely matched. The amount of continuing marketing my DS is getting from schools he didn't apply to or whose offers he didn't take up is testament to how keen they are to fill places. Its much higher volume than my DD got a few years ago.

My DS and I discussed him deferring. He couldn't see that there would be many opportunities to have a fulfilling year out - little availability of casual work, work placements/internships cancelled and restricted travel. In any case he wants to study Mathematics and its generally not encouraged as the students lose a lot of mental acuity with a prolonged gap - which is going to be bad enough after 6 months of gaming world records and sitting in parks! Judging by the emails from universities they are definitely planning to provide as social a time as they can with welcome weeks. And my DS has applied for a large self catering flat in a large scale complex so I cant imagine they wont all be mixing and having some fun. My DD going back in year two is confident they will be partying - just not clubbing.

I just spoke to my DS as he was off to meet pals from school for a birthday gathering in a park and said to find out about going into school for results. It hadn't occurred to me that schools would be doing that - I just assumed everything would be by email this year.

@millicentmartha I imagine there is a first stab at rankings which is fairly straight forward and then you have to rank within clusters of students of similar abilities - this one did better in mocks, that one produced excellent class work, that one had great GCSEs but her mother was diagnosed with cancer and her work slipped for a while but she would have picked herself up. In distinguishing between those who are all equal but different, it may be that a teacher thinks they should all get As, but ranks the one with a medicine offer higher in case the moderation slips one of them down, if the one who slips down has an unconditional offer so lower consequence. In an imperfect system that could be seen as a rational approach. It must be so difficult ranking near the grade boundaries.

Say if there are more places available at Uni this year, due to less foreign students coming, when will they have to give notice that they are not coming? How will it work on results day? Will unis just automatically accept students with slightly lower grades or will they be rejected and have to apply for the same course through clearing?

Hope you can understand what I’m trying to ask, I’m a first timer and very nervous that ds won’t be awarded the grades he needs. So anxious

I've just seen yesterday's letter from OfQual to schools. There's not a lot new in there but this sentence caught my eye:

It is highly likely that all centres will see some adjustment, in at least one subject, to their centre assessment grades.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-qualifications-in-summer-2020/letter-to-heads-of-centre-summer-2020-arrangements

@Lipsofchicken it will depend on the university and subject. Every year universities take some students with grades below their offers and it seems likely that this year there will be more than usual doing that. If a firm choice accepts lower grades, it can either be on results day or later, following discussions between student and university and maybe an appeal. There will be no reviews of marking this year, and appeals will probably be uncommon as they can only be on the basis of errors in applying the process.

Lipsofchicken if you (the candidate) don't get the grades for either your firm or alternative choice they might still accept you. If they don't the UCAS system online automatically puts you into clearing and then offers you potential matches of the same or similar courses at other universities who have vacancies and might take you. If you express an interest in one or more of those they look at your application and contact you. It will therefore be sensible to have the list of the top universities to do your chosen subject so you can then see where those unis rank - and you can even go to their websites and watch videos showing you around to get the feel for the places. Here's the bit of the UCAS site that explains it:

www.ucas.com/undergraduate/results-confirmation-and-clearing/what-clearing