Is it worth going to uni in Sep 2020 or better to defer until Sep 2021

[langdale2016]

We are wondering if it's worth DS starting his degree in Sep 2020, as it islikely to be online and there won't be the opportunities to join in with freshers' week, meet new people etc as it is likely that his course will start online.

We don't want to have to pay for accommodation (which he is unlikely to live in) as money is really really tight, as it is for most people I suspect.

I'm also not sure that DS working from home in his bedroom, is worth paying all those tuition fees either. He is currently building up his own online business so deferring for a year could help him concentrate on making that successful. He is on his gap year at the moment so it would mean two years out of education. To his credit he's been devouring books and research related to his chosen subject so it won't be a problem to get back into the swing of study.

I just think that one of the biggest benefits of studying for a degree is to use this as the opportunity to spread your wings and become independent. It looks extremely likely that this years intake won't have that opportunity as, without a vaccination, I don't see how lecture theatres. halls of residence and student bars will manage social distancing.

What do others think?

I'd defer.

Universities need students in September/October 2020.

Students don't need universities in September/October 2020.

Watch and wait; especially on accommodation availability and costs. It was always a precarious model.

My DD is doing the exact opposite to deferring. She'd planned to take a gap year but opportunities have pretty much vanished so is now making a late UCAS application for September. The course and universities she's interested in are still accepting applications and I suspect it's a bit of a buyer's market in the current circumstances.
I don't think for a minute it will be the usual start to a degree course but let's face, there's nothing 'usual' just now!

'Face it'

I think it is estimated that there will be a drop of 16% from home students and 47% o/seas. Obviously best guesses at present.

Very interesting discussion. i said on another thread (or two Or three!) that the age/ risk profile of most students (not all) may mean that having students in hall, lectures etc is considered acceptable by september. Particularly if track and trace is up and running by then as currently seems to be envisaged.

I do think univs might be underestimating the number of no shows (Including drop outs not returning) if they start online only, but i agree it depends very much on the course/place - if its the course of your dreams and univ wont defer there is a very strong incentive to keep the place and go (virtually, obviously!) And i totally agree about the lack of alternative opportunities - if we’re still in a situation where online only is considered necessary by september, its likely that the jobs market will be v quiet. And yes, i read that at least one supermarket has started laying off its temporary recruits.

All these people saying that their DC are considering deferring: have you actually asked the university if it is a possibility? I expect most institutions will be very keen to get students 'on roll' this autumn because they will desperately need the income from their fees. So unless you've already applied for / been offered a deferral to 2021, I wouldn't count on securing one.
If you have to reapply in order to sit the year out, you're running into all sorts of unknowns about increased student numbers (an already larger cohort of 2021 school leavers, plus all those who didn't go this year), institutions which might have had to cut courses for financial reasons and possibly even some providers who have gone bust. I would expect competition for places in 2021 to be much fiercer. Perhaps if you end up with stellar grades it might be different, but even that is out of the hands of many would-be 2020 students.

There is no cast-I ron guarantee that things will be back to normal even by Sept 2021. What if your DC defers only to find us in the same situation with a second / third wave next summer / autumn?

DS had been considering reapplying next year before coronavirus as he got a late rejection from his preferred university (Durham) and was regretting not applying to Oxbridge. He will probably now firm Warwick and go In September providing he gets the grades. However, we are now wondering whether there might be clearing/adjustment places at Durham if many do defer in September.

On a separate note, as others have said, he managed to get a temporary contract in a supermarket and many others taken on at the same time have now been let go. Thankfully, he is still working a couple of night shifts per week doing shopping for home deliveries. Not ideal but hoping to get some day shifts at some point and just grateful to have a job.

DD had been allocated a place at Durham at the yet to be built South College. Their website has (unsurprisingly) been very quiet about its progress. Luckily her firm choice has guaranteed accommodation for all. I suppose the current situation may reduce the last minute scramble for halls this year.

H have a DC in Year 12 and all I can say is that if he was going this Sept, he wouldn’t be deferring! If the stats given earlier are true, that there will be 40-something percent less overseas students coming this year, then there will never be a year like this again to get into the uni of your choice, even if you drop a grade. Teacher assessed grades are likely to be in the optimistic side anyway.

Yes you might have to do remote learning for half a term or so, but it’s not the end if the world. If primary school kids are managing it now up and down the UK, I’m sure 18 year olds can do the same. There’s plenty of time for socialising / drinking.

Next September, there us likely to be a rush of international students once again. What’s to say they’re not all deferring too? Some unis are offering guaranteed deferred places if students need to take the Autumn exams, so this will have an impact on the places available for 2021 too. It is likely to be much more competitive next year. If you have a place for 2020, I would take it and run!

What will there be for them to do next year anyway? Overseas travel will be iffy. I doubt many companies will be looking to take gap year students on.

In fact, I asked my DS if he would consider deferring if it looks like places at the unis he’s applying to will be reduced for 2021. He said, he wouldn’t consider that because he just wants to get on with his life, not fit round in limbo. He’s bored as it is.

I very much doubt unis would let people defer anyway (unless they are the ones that are allowing deferrals based on Autumn exams). Why would they? What’s in it for them? Next year they have a whole new cohort coming up. Chances are, if DC don’t take their places this year, someone else will and then they’re back to square one, up against a much more competitive year.

University planning will also be complicated by the number of returning third years that had ben planning a year abroad or a year in industry. And others who are considering a year out between years 2 and 3 (DD2 year 2 was disrupted due to mumps, strikes and Coronovirus so she is considering deferring her third year rather than having that disrupted too with no prospect of career fairs or graduate recruitment opportunities).

Not relevant to year 13 but just shows how difficult planning must be

We might not be able to afford the student loan system by then either, as another factor to consider.

We might not be able to afford the student loan system by then either, as another factor to consider.

It is completely unrealistic to think that the government could or would remove support entirely from universities and cause them to close - which is what removing student loans would do. These are the places that train doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers and other professionals, and carry out the medical, scientific and technological research required to develop Covid treatments, vaccines, digital contact tracing etc.

I have 2 going this year - possibly/probably.

DD19 had a gap year, got herself a full time internet call centre job at the start of lockdown and is saving like crazy. Did her A levels last year so has a confirmed place at uni. She will go if the course runs.

DD17 has a conditional place. No A levels this year - borderline may or may not make the grade on teacher grading (would have been thus even if exams taken) - the more people who defer the better for her... She wants to go anyway if they run the course. If not, then clearing, if not that (though can't see her getting that bad grading wise) then she will take a year out and try doing what her sister has.

The way my girls see it is that they will either get back to "normal" sometime - so can start the course and defer the social benefits til later, or they won't get back to normal, so what's to lose in going for it anyway.

No, what might happen with student loans though is, off the top of my head ..

A limit to numbers the govt will pay for - other places are self funded

Paid places only for specific courses ( eg science/medicine)

Govt loan only for the poorest, the rest self fund

I don't think people are quite seeing the economic tsunami heading our way

If it wasn't paid for in 1930 it probably won't be might be a handy go to guide.

This year will be fine, by the next academic year, maybe not.

It's difficult isn't it. In the OP's son's case it sounds like he has something to do with the year.

But if my son were now in Y13 and sitting on an offer for a course and uni he wanted I think I would tell him to go ahead, even if the first term might all be online.

Gap years are going to be difficult to fill - not many jobs, and few travel opportunities. And remember we have the no deal Brexit coming to us too. Studying at least shields you a bit from economic meltdown especially if you are living at home and studying online.

If it wasn't paid for in 1930 it probably won't be might be a handy go to guide.

So no universal health care? The NHS did not exist in 1948 & in the 1930s society would have just let the poor die from a pandemic while the rich closeted themselves away safely in their country houses.

Paid places only for specific courses ( eg science/medicine)

And you think that will win votes amongst the middle class whose incomes have collapsed? Much more likely that loan terms become harsher and "low value" courses are forced out.

in 1948 -> until 1948

Yes, no universal healthcare. That was going anyway after Brexit

It's a long time til the next elections

But on the original question - I would go for it now. We don't even know if the unis will allow a straight defer, they may see the fact that they will have much more competition for places next year and require a re-evaluation of both years' cohorts together.

There has been a lot of speculation that the worst performing universities will merge with colleges of FE and cease to be universities. Not immediately one would imagine but if foreign students don’t come, there is surplus space. Closing down/merging HE/FE provision is being talked about very openly.

Just seen this on the BBC news website. Everything is still so uncertain...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52506283

There’s talk in the press about universities capping their intake to 5% above normal, but if normal includes international students then doesn’t it mean that the popular unis will still take far more than their usual share of uk students?

Did anyone see the bbc news article saying the government is saying students must pay full cost of their course this year even if online?

I think universities must have asked them to state this due to funding worries. Personally I think unis should be doing all they can to get campuses open for this low risk age group. For some courses eg humanities - online learning is going to look very poor value indeed.

No fees equals no universities. The overheads are huge. There was a lot about this in the Sunday Times yesterday.