Parents of current Year 12s - are you worried your child’s uni chances might be affected by current school closures and this is something nobody is addressing yet?

[clarification]

Hi, I was talking to a friend earlier who has a son in a large sixth form college. She was telling me there is a petition going around that Year 12s are demanding universities to show tolerance and maybe lower entry grades for the 2021 cohort due to the fact that -

• this year group are missing an important term in the run up to A-levels

• standards of online-teaching seem to vary massively between schools

• some pupils will obviously not have a home environment conducive to learning.

I have a DS in Year 12 and the online provision from his school will probably be very good to be honest, but even so, a term is a long time to keep motivated without peers to bounce off and the more disciplined, stimulating environment that school affords. I’m also aware that some schools are so busy teaching key workers children that they won’t have the extra time or resources for real-time online teaching, so work set is likely to be projects, etc which won’t suit the less motivated. My friend was saying her DS’ college haven’t even confirmed if or how they’ll be delivering the curriculum. How can this be right?

This got me thinking - a term is a long time. In effect, A-levels are taught over 5 terms, so these students are missing 20% of their “normal” education. In light of this, I’m wondering if there might be a justified call for unis to make more flexible offers for the Sept 2021 cohort. Interested to hear any views on here!

Thankyou for that 1963 - I hope so.

Sure. Fair enough clarification. Until a poster comes along and says the Y13s in the Oxbridge thread you mention are 'taking' their own little darlings' places. I mean, it's asking for someone to take the piss really isn't it?

@titchy think you missed my point. Some kids won't miss a term of school because we are still teaching full time. But some will because they don't have the same access or time to spare. And yes it will get mentioned in a reference but some Unis never look at those - they just use grades. The inequality that already exists will become even bigger.
And I agree that year 12 will have uncertain times ahead which is hard. Nothing is as it should be. My year 13 so would much rather be sitting A levels in a few weeks, although she had found some good MOOCS from Edinburgh vet school which she's enjoying.

#be kind. 💐

Oh and @titchy the one with sick parents comes from a very rich background. Just has one parent in ICU and one at home v poorly. And much younger siblings. He's a great kid but not disadvantaged, just going through a pretty rough time.

goodbye - the tone I’m talking about was taken from the very first page of this thread, before Cambridge had announced anything. It’s unnecessary.

I have a DC in Year 12 and I am worried about how this will impact his A Levels. I don't think posters saying you shouldn't worry about it because it's worse for those in the NHS is helpful as of course we know that but at the same time it doesn't mean people can't or don't worry about the impact this will have on their or their children's lives.

My comment about those on the front line was to the poster who said it's shit for everyone in education at the moment, to which my instinctive response is well not really actually, and much worse for those on the medical front line. Some people catastrophise about literally everything. This episode should put things into perspective, not be used as a vehicle to indulge.

mums - you sound like a lovely teacher who cares deeply about her students, so please don’t feel the need to justify your feelings or concerns to anyone.

This is not some kind of ridiculous competition. It’s perfectly possible to be concerned about many things on many levels - obviously!

In fact, in times of isolation and constant bad news, you may be more prone to speculating about the future, opportunities versus potential barriers, and what it may or may not hold for our DC. It can help you to get through. Well, it helps me.

mumsneedwine I'm really surprised you talk to your pupils online and also a bit more than surprised that you think it ok to share accounts of something as seismic as a parental death. As clarification says, this isn't a competition, either in grief or poor taste.

That's obviously right clarification, focusing on small things to displace the large.

@goodbye I think you should just leave this thread as it's meant to be supportive. Some of us are concerned - if you aren't fine but there is no need to belittle others concerns.

I think you should read posts properly Itwillallworkoutok, since I've not belittled any Y12 parents concerns, merely defended the specific daft assertion that Y13s with Oxford offers are 'taking' the places which rightfully belong to the year below. Other than that, my comments haven't been directed to any parent of a Y12. I think you're confusing which posts are addressed to others and which to me. Perhaps just read again.

Anything said in relation to professional conduct is entirely separate, but appropriate.

My last post to clarification was a very straightforward agreement incidentally, in case you misread that too.

Gosh! Oxbridge parents are exceptional in their ability to squabble. It's worse than the Dog House (very scary threads) !

I do have sympathy with Clarification. After all, this is a particular section and it goes without saying that someone, somewhere always has it worse.

I have skin the game, having a Year 12 dc, and I do think that things will be... interesting in the next couple of years regarding Oxbridge entrance. Cambridge habitually over-offers, sure in the knowledge that a fair proportion of candidates will miss their grades. Obviously with no surprise nasty exam questions, far fewer candidates (if any) wlll miss their grades and, as we know, there is the chance to re-sit as well.

Oxford is a different case in that it's harder to get a foot in the door in the first place, but asked-for grades are lower than Cambridge's, and they don't over-offer to the same degree. Nevertheless I've seen (on Student Room) offer holders saying they've received emails asking if they'd like to defer for a year.

For Year 12s the obvious problem is a) Cambridge having places taken for the following year by current yr 13s and b) similar at Oxford with deferrals. Then there will be those that want to defer anyway in case their experience is spoiled by not being able to do the whole "Oxbridge" thing. Additionally who knows what the effect of "25% of places reserved for poor students " will have.

It's a hard enough game anyway, but now it's really difficult to know the best path, given that already narrow goalposts are now going to be six inches wide.

@goodbyestranger I wasn't referring to your post about Yr13's with Oxford offers but the one saying it's worse for those on the medical front line. I think we all know that but as someone else said we are allowed to have other concerns about the impact all this will have. Yes, I did misread your post to @clarification so apologies.
On another note I also didn't think this was an Oxbridge thread but more a general thread for those with concerns about our DC in Year 12.

Phew.... Thankyou Irma.

Look this most definitely is not about blaming any students for anything. How can it be? It’s out if their hands. Can we just drop that whole notion now?

I accept all the points others have made on here - of course I do. It’s obvious! Yes of course some students defer every year and you wouldn’t know the numbers. However, the advice at our school is that, in normal circumstances, it’s slightly harder to get a deferred place (certainly at Oxbridge) on average. This is because the uni would need to feel that you were likely to be a stronger candidate than the majority applying in the next year. On top of this, some subjects lend themselves to useful gap-year work experience to boost an application than others - eg a girl we know had a year shadowing an MP before her politics degree. It’s harder for maths degrees etc because a year out without focused exam practise may mean you’re less ready to hit the ground running when you arrive at uni.

So all this we know as standard, but this year, it is very likely that a more will defer than normal. How many more, we don’t know.

Regarding the stats, we obviously realise that if there’s say, 100 offers and 75 acceptances for a course at Cambridge, it doesn’t necessarily mean that all 25 didn’t make the grade. Yes some may have gone elsewhere, obviously (especially international candidates). But in a significant number of cases, the gap between offers and acceptances will be students who didn’t quite make the grade. This year they will have a second chance to prove themselves in an exam - and so they should! But, to use the above example, even if only 10 of the 25 bump the grade/s up, that 10 less offers to be made next year for that subject, which is significant. Some courses will be affected more than others.

It may well be that unis are preparing take a slight bulge year of UK students for 2020 (due to more students achieving the grades via teacher assessment and less overseas students coming). It may well be that not many will need to take the Autumn exams. However, nobody can predict this yet. So in the absence of further information and as things stand, you have to expect that there will be an some impact on available places for 2021.

It may well be that unis are preparing to take a bulge year of UK students in 2021 as well - either for financial reasons or to not disadvantage the 2021 cohort. But as yet, we just don’t know that.

It is also obvious that each and every year, some children are disadvantaged by poor teaching and all sorts of socio-economic factors. All this still stands. The point for discussion here, was that these inequalities will be more pronounced this year, when the home environment becomes the school environment for probably a whole term.

It’s not about anyone “taking” places. It is what is is. But it seems reasonable to me to expect that the situation for 2021 will be ... “ interesting” as Irma says, so I was interested in other people’s perspectives as to what might be afoot for our Year 12s.

Also, to Itwill’s point - if Cambridge are offering deferred places via Autumn exams, you can expect that many other unis will be to - you just wouldn’t know yet. The only reason I know about Cambridge is the current Oxbridge thread, but it could be the case at many unis and probably is.

clarification some days or weeks ago I said somewhere on these threads that I'd far rather be a Y13 than a Y12. I think there are certainly problems potentially being stored up for Y12s and there does seem to be quite a lot of chat about asking to defer etc flying around. I simply thought the 'taking' comment was a bit histrionic, given that no current Y12 has been through the process yet. I don't see that grades will be affected but I think there might well be reasons to be concerned about a squeeze on places at the most competitive unis.

I think there are several massive unknowns.
What we don't know is the reduction in overseas applicants, how many will miss their offer, how many will bother retaking nor how many applicants Oxbridge will accept on dropped grades - so rather than making them retake in Autumn (which might reduce the number of places in 2021) they might take more dropped grades in 2020 to smooth any spike ie split the difference between 2020 and 2021 and then admit fewer internationals in 2021

There's literally no way of knowing any of this until August.

I also read somewhere that there's normally spare places in Cambridge every year because they only take the people they want rather than people they could accommodate...not sure if it's the same in Oxford

More generally year 12s will have the grades they would expect because of the weird way it works. if 20% of the cohort would normally get a B then 20% of the current year 12s will still get a B. What could be different is the grade boundaries- so last year it may have been 60% for a B and next year that may only be 40% (made up numbers obv).

....plus if the current situation continues into 2021 (which is distinctly possible) there will be a far bigger problem for everyone to worry about.

Basically don't panic yet and things will become clearer in Aug but I am absolutely sure Oxbridge will do their damndest not to disadvantage the current year 12s and to ensure that they get the best possible students.

...now....the disadvantage to certain social economic groups is a very different question....that's where the unfair, disadvantage, widening gap etc is a undeniable argument

Yes Thankyou for that, I’m not worried about DS’ grades being affected so much as it’s all relative and, if anything, grade boundaries will go down. It’s just feels kind of “wrong” really as he’s had two online exams this morning, whereas he’s got friends on Snapchat etc who are still in bed, with no work set at all by the large sixth form college they attend (and this is meant to be an “outstanding” one) I also have a Year 10 who is dyslexic and all I can say is thank god I’m at home because he had to analyse a poem this morning and I doubt he could have got started without someone to help him.

Anyway, what will be will be, I guess, DS tells me that The Student Room is awash with Year 13s planning to take exams and defer because they feel teachers don’t like them; as well as Year 12s suddenly planning gap in case there’s a squeeze on places. So maybe it will be the 2022 cohort who are most affected .

To be honest, I don’t think Cambridge or any uni will want to disadvantage anyone. I hope not!

Great post Bpisok. I strongly suspect that Cambridge will not be able to implement their adjustment procedure this year after having only brought it in last year.

One other issue for Y12s is that they do have June exams/assessments. This is massively unsettling and obviously they will have missed at least 8 weeks face to face teaching even if they go back after May half term. My son's tutor has already helpfully emailed to say if their results are not good enough they will not be allowed to continue. That's not very supportive in my view. I think there is an argument for letting them all continue into Y13 unless there are very grave concerns about their ability.

There may also be a knock-on for predicted grades which will affect the courses or the universities or both that the students can apply for.