Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

I can indeed confirm that London is beyond sweltering.

Reminds me of the summer of 2003 when I was heavily pregnant with DD and had to deal with an 18 month old DS1 who was a nightmare. That toddler has grown up into a 6 2 hulk who is currently sulking because DD used up 'his' cucumber to make Pimms for her and her friends.

If I'd known then how it would all turn out 17 years later..,

Really bad luck @goodbyestranger, your medics will have rota commitments they cant ignore if the wretched quarantine happens.

I am enjoying the distraction of interpreting pigeon dreams, speculating on what Dad Jr will make of a washing machine and generally wishing the hours away.

Scottish students are apparently having CAG grades endorsed as final and not adjusted grades. A complete U turn. Will the same happen on Thursday I wonder?

The Minister for Education in Scotland has just upgraded all downgraded results and reverting to the teachers estimates.....what a shambles! Students who were upgraded by the algorithm will retain those grades too. Wow.....this had a massive affect on many students, including many high achieving students, but this kind of a U-turn is remarkable. My DD had one subject downgraded to a B (despite an A band 1 at higher, an A in prelims and an A was predicted) but her Oxford offer was AAB, she it was OK and we were set to appeal. However, others missed their offers, so this will remedy that.

Wow this is political and educational dynamite! Wonder what impact this will have on Thursday.....

I chanced my arm one one of my A level students but was very realistic with the others. No idea what they will do.

Reminds me of the year Gove was Ed sec and massive numbers of students missed the grade 4 due to 10 point shift in boundary but he wasn't having it.

Well I’d interpret from this that for everyone on here, even if it doesn’t go your way tomorrow morning, chances are your DC will all end up with their predicted grades anyway. I can’t see how they can refuse to fu the same here. So congratulations!

at the news from Scotland. I am, of course, delighted for those whose dreams have just been restored. But people at UCAS, admissions officers and Ofqual must be in a state of utter panic with that U-turn hitting their desks less that 48 hours before the English results go live.

Only a few minutes ago I was wishing it was Thursday but I now realise I wish it was 2021.

If England made the same sweeping decision to give everyone their CAG, I agree there will be mayhem, but will it affect Oxford that much? For those who have been moderated below their CAG and missed their offer, I suspect some (many?) of them will still be offered a place by Oxford, because they know this kind of thing would happen and they look at the other evidence they have.

It might be tougher for Cambridge who operate a higher ratio of offers to places and expect a proportion to miss.

Hobbema 2020 really is the year that keeps giving, isn't it.

Now I can add to my list of things to worry about the fact that DDs supposedly "safe" insurance offer is in Scotland and probably about to fill up with very happy Scottish students who thought they just missed their grades. At this rate, if she ends up there, her guaranteed university accommodation will be a shared broom cupboard in the accommodation office cos that's all they'll have left ...

Well... I'm speechless. If the same doesn't happen in England and students miss out on their offers it will seem so unfair - but how will they fit everyone in? Unless they offer deferrals which would be so hard on next year's cohort - who knows?

Ha, yes, D1's insurance is also in Scotland!

Same for DDs’insurance @AChickenCalledDaal... StA... . Maybe C will invite deferrals: DD did have a questionnaire a while ago asking if that was a consideration should she meet her offer.
My hair’s still falling out from actual covid infection in April..

It is unbelievable. Although fingers crossed you won't need them - it might reassure you if your DCs have Scottish insurance offers is that the Scottish Universities have strictly limited places for Scots (funded), so cant just increase numbers/offers. I'm hoping for all of your sakes that the English results have been better managed than up here.....

@DadDadDad - I agree. Cambridge are going to have a massive problem if exam results for all at CAG level (most likely generous) stand. It will be very crowded. Oxford less so. I have an 80% stat of offers made compared to offers met but I might be making that up.

I should be pleased that this might make it more likely that DS1 makes his offer (if England follow suit) but I can't help feeling that any on paper achievement he gets could be massively devalued,

On the BBC news report, it said that the Scottish government will ensure that there will be enough places at colleges and universities so that all places awarded can be taken up.

justaweebit looks like there's talk of lifting the quotas, which would be a good thing for Scottish students but is a bit scary for English students still in limbo.

Hobbema and I might need to introduce our DDs to each other so they can start sharing a tent down by the beach at St Andrews!

Sandybayley, for the 2018 Oxford cohort, just under 8% missed their offers. This was reported in the Times, October 2018. This 8% is in line with the extent to which Oxford over-offer.

As a mathematical modeller of sorts, I have sympathy for the statisticians who considered a dozen statistical models for moderation, presumably with lots of juicy "give weighting x(n) to the CAGs, weighting y(n) to the prior years' results, weighting z(n) to the GCSE grades for the cohort; where x, y and z are functions of n, the number of entrants for the subject", then carefully trying to calibrate x, y, z.

Then John Swinney sweeps in a week after publication, to say "nah, just whack x up to 100% for everyone".

@DadDadDad that maybe so but where was the equality testing in the policies to see the methods used will clearly affect different students in different ways.

I was in the same situation last year with DS (well not the same as pre Covid and he did exams) and wish everyone here all the very best for Thursday.

hobbema yes the rotas are exactly the problem and I just don’t feel that the rest of us can go off to France while those two are stuck with leave and yet nowhere to go.

I’m anticipating an announcement tomorrow to say that we’re following the Scottish lead.

@Flyonawalk - that sounds about right - thanks. I guess Oxford will probably cope with some extras, particularly if they get some international drop outs.

There may of course be some Oxbridge offer holders who didn't get given the required CAGs, although probably not too many. Certainly on here I think most of us have been more worried about moderation than school assessed grades.

Let's not forget that the poor maths offer holders must be looking at all this chaos but knowing that they still need to pass the not insignificant STEP hurdle.

DS's school has emailed today to say that after they send out results, they will also send out CAGs. I assume mainly to stop everyone asking for them anyway.

Cambridge over offering.....I thought that was predominantly Maths and was whittled down by STEP (which I think still happened). Obv some missed grades for other subjects but possibly not as bad as the 'Cambridge massively over offer' story I keep hearing.
...DDs course sent an email at the start of lockdown saying that they hadn't over offered and could take everyone. I also remember being told that Cambridge have a lot of unfilled places each year (and people moaning that they should be filled). Mix that in with a few covid influenced deferrals and an agreement to lift the student cap then I suspect it's doable. Worst case scenario they bribe a few candidates to defer to 2021 😁